Thursday, July 31, 2008

After last week's rain, the "yellow" patch over Marathwada has vanished, the" scanty" region is now in the "deficient" zone. Marathwada is still "red", but slightly better, and the konkan belt has gone in the "green" zone. Overall India deficient is still at -2%.
The system bringing this much needed relief has now moved westward, and is now as a weak system over the Arabian region. Some cloudyness and light rain could be expected on Friday in Oman, Dubai and east Arabian Peneinsula.

Now, for some unexpected change of scene. The heat wave in the Central Asian region has produced a W.D., in the upper air, and a line of wind discontinuity over Pakistan.
Map shows a weak sea level low over central India. The monsoon trough line is right thru central India, and runs from the 22N region almost horizontal (seen joining the 2 lows).

Result forecast for next 2/3 days(1st week Aug): Increased rain in the northwest and north Indian regions and rain shifting back to north Pakistan. Since the trough is at 22N, and the south west current as seen in the map is strong, "normal" rains will occur in the states of M.P.,Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and subdued over T.N. and Kerala. Lonavala and Mahableshwar will get "normal" showers in the first week, not exceeding 20-50mms/day. Rains in India have shifted north from today (31st).

Resultantly, the bay low is again pushed off, and can form after the moving away of the W.D.



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