Monsoon Watch -4 will be published on Wednesday at 6 pm IST....
What is the SWM Status ? Is the flow of WDs spoiling the Advance and the parameters ? Is any parameter disturbed ?..All this on..MW-4 On Wednesday..!

Suggested Field Trip to IMD Pune...See Vagaries Meets in Pics Page for Details and confirming..


Heavy Rains in North Rajasthan on 13th, as estimated in Monday Post:
Dust storm accompanied with heavy rains lashed north-west Rajasthan affecting normal life as Churu received the maximum rainfall of 43 mm, minimum temp 16.7c ( -7) . 
A high intensity squall accompanied with thundershowers also hit Jaipur and its sub-urban towns in the wee hours Tuesday. People woke up with thick layer of sands and fallen apart leaves in their premises. 

Pilani recorded a maximum rainfall of 42.1 mm, Ganganagar 23.2, ( min 16c ( -7), Bikaner 21.2, Min 18c (-8), Jodhpur 2.4, Ajmer 1.2, Jaipur and 1.0 mm.

 Dust storm coupled with thunder showers affected normal life.






Some memories of a "Chilly Summer", 32 years back in North India..Delhi

Mild and Wet Weather Continues in North...Posted by Arpit.

North India is again enjoying mild and wet weather from the past 3-4 days. Strong western Disturbances brought good thunderstorm/duststorm in the whole region. Northern plains are daily getting thunderstorms along with strong winds with gusts upto 120 km/hr. Hilly regions are getting light to moderate rainfall starting from 10 May onwards. However isolated activity prevailed in the region earlier too.

New Delhi had already completed its rainfall quota for the month of May by getting above 22 mm till today evening. Last week on Thursday,Delhi Safdarjung had recorded a maximum wind speed of 100 km/hr with 5.6 mm of rain. Also on Sunday the same station measured a maximum wind speed of 48 km/hr with 0.4 mm of rain. Other nearby cities like Gurgaon, Greater Noida also received quite a good amount of rainfall this week.

Scattered rainfall along with strong winds lashed parts of Punjab & Haryana also. Both states are having below normal temperatures due tot the ongoing activity. West UP is also on the same track with scattered rainfall in the parts of the state. Rajasthan had very good rainfall till now and more expected in the coming days.

Purely North India is having active duststorm season after 3-4 years. Due to this active season, day temperatures are much lower in parts of the region. Also many places had already completed their rainfall quota for the month of May. The ongoing activity may give more rain in the region in the coming days too.

Brief Summary Posted Monday Night:..Posted by Rajesh

M-3 is an upper level trough, and has an extended trough into the Pak Punjab region:...the Peninsula LWD is weak, and the trough runs NW/SW axis from Chatisgarh...Induced Low in trough wit M-3 moves NE...before M-4 moves in !

Islamabad enjoyed winter weather on Monday with 30 mms of rain bringing the Max temperature to 19c....While Karachi was between 33c and 28c...
New Delhi was also better at 35c on Monday, with winds bringing down the temperatures to 25c by  early night time.
Kathmandu, still pleasant and cool at night reading 15.7c....may not get effected by M-3....

Tuesday 13th : Snow in Upper reaches of Kashmir.
Rains in Northern Pakistan, Pak Punjab, And on the Indian side of Punjab, Haryana, Deli NCR, HP and Western Uttarakhand. Northern Rajasthan will get showers. 

Heavy falls in : Regions of Islamabad, Upper Punjab including Multan and Faisalabad. 
Isolated heavy falls in Indian Punjab and Northern Rajasthan.( Jaipur/Ajmer regions).

Some showers in Kerala and adjoining Interior TN..Heavier falls in Nilgiri regions and Bangalore vicinity.

Wednesday 14th: 
Light rains in Pak Punjab and parts of Central and Upper Sindh.
In India, we see rains in Kashmir and HP. Some medium to heavy falls around Delhi NCR in some parts, and in adjining Northern Rajasthan.
Parts of Central Interior Saurashtra may receive isolated thunder showers.
Rains in the South move intoInterior TN..with some heavy fallls in the Nilgiri Mountains.

Thursday 15th, as M-3 moves away, we see a decrease in Rains in Northern parts of Pakistan and India. But some showers continue in Balochistan and adjoining Central parts of Sindh.
Parts of Central Interior Saurashtra may receive isolated thunder showers.


Meanwhile, all 3 days we see good rains pouring in the NE states.

Massive Rains in Cherrapunii and Record Rainfall in Kerala and Karnataka  from BB-1....compiled by Vagarian Pradeep On Pradeep's Page

This Was the Best Watched Solar Flare Ever...See the Best Pic of it on Space News Page

Recent Heavy Rains in Kerala from BB-1....compiled by Vagarian Santosh...and Karnataka Rains sent by Vagarian Puneet....On Current Weather Page

Earth Quake, M4.6 - 12km SE of Daur, Pakistan2014-05-08 23:50:11 UTC

click for larger view

EARTHQUAKE ROCKS NAWABSHAH & ADJOINING AREAS:

NAWABSHAH: An earthquake with a magnitude of 4.5 hit Nawabshah and surrounding areas, damaging houses in various areas that left at least one person dead and 50 others injured.

The injured people, who include women and children, were shifted to hospitals where emergency has been declared.

The quake jolted Nawabshah and its adjoining areas at about 3.55 am . The epicenter of the earthquake was 27 km North East of Nawabshah with depth of 15 km.

The aftershocks continued to shake the quake-hit area, triggering tension in the region....sent by Jawad.

Kerala Flooding pics sent by vagarian Santosh...see Inter Active Page

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Posted Thursday 11.30 am IST:

191 mms in Kochi, 88 mms in Kohzikode till 8.30 am IST Thursday...
Location of BB-1:

Western Half Segment shows heavy rains....

Heavy Rainfall warning for N.I. Karnataka (Belgaum), Goa and South Konkan.

Mumbai cloudy, getting overcast by afternoon evening. Thunder Cell from Eastern side may drift over parts of City...Outer Townships in East can get the thunder squall on Thursday evening.




Posted Wednesday Night:

Light rains forecasted in South Konkan (yesterday post ) occured on Wednesday, and measured with 11 mms in Ratnagiri, 8 mms in Bhira, and 1-5 mms in some stations. 
Ghat stations too, as expected , received some showers with Mahableshwar and Pune AP getting 7 mms and Lonavala 6 mms with hail.
Belgaum received 26 mms...All rains till 8.30 pm IST Wednesday.

We had earlier explained, that the existing LWD in the peninsula would move off shore off the West coast, and embed the system. But, the LWD remained inland, and the embedded BB-1 moved along the trough N/NW and now lies over Interior Karnataka. So, instead of going a bit off the coast of Karnataka, and re entering, the system has moved directly into the interiors of Karnataka.

BB-1 it seems is resisted by the dry air (see image), and would be unable to cross into the Arabian Sea.

Would possibly track Northwards, and weaken over Northern AP region .

Thursday 
Heavy rains in Karnataka, coastal and Interior, and Goa. Heavy falls in isolated places.

Mumbai: Cloudy and very stuffy. Warm day and night....light drizzles in some parts in evening, specially Eastern Suburbs. 
Eastern Outer Townships: Cloudy with thundery developments by afternoon/evening. Squally winds in some pockets from local over heating. Thunder showers likely in some parts and vicinity. 
Ghat regions too will get evening thunder showers.
South Konkan will get showers, which will prove damaging to existing mango fruits.

Friday, 
Rains decreasing in the Konkan and Interior Karnataka. Around Goa, heavy rains persist in pockets around the ghats.
But increase in rains in adjacent AP. Heavy showers for Hyderabad on Friday, as system moves there.
Some isolated thunder heads may still pop up around ghat regions around Mumbai. A cell may drift and bring rains to some parts.

Saturday, rains decrease.

Brief on M-2: M-2 currently as shown in Map..moves East. Next 2 days Thursday and Friday, rains likely in North, Plains of NW India and North Pakistan. Rains in Sindh. Storms likely in Sukkur and Punjab regions of Pakistan.
Islamabad region received showers, and showed a temperature 33c and 17c. But Karachi heated up to 40c.Makran region can get thunder showers.

Meanwhile, Dust storm Video from Badlapur  (Abhijit Modak).. see here and here
Badlapur rains today...

Storm and Lightning Superb Video over Kolkata on 3rd May...see here, sent by Vagarian Santosh


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted Tuesday 6th May, Night:

BB-1 remains almost stationary since last position. Situated at 6.5N and 78E, and at 1002 mb pressure. Winds are at 25 knts around the centre. On Tuesday, Thiruvananthpuram received 71 mms in 9 hrs till 5.30 pm IST.
Some of the heavy overnight rains ( mms) in Kerala, TN and Karntaka...Hosanagara 66, Mayiladuthurai 65, Muthupet 58, Karaikal 53, Londa 42, 
Neyyattinkara 38, Thiruvananthapuram AP 33 

Currently, heavy rain is concentrated in the Far NW segment, off the Kerala/South Karntaka coast.

System will deepen into a depression in next 12 hrs, and track NW initially.

By Wednesday evening, the upper trough from WD (already dipping to 23N), and the High pressure ridge, will prevent further movement Northwards , beyond Karnataka coast. As as mentioned earlier , BB-1 should cross the Karnataka coast to move inland by Thursday.

Wednesday evening and Thursday will see very heavy rains in Karnataka, Kerala and to some extent in Goa.
Coastal Karnataka and Kerala will get downpours amounting to upto 75 -90 mms in 24 hrs (Wed/Thurs). 
Unusually heavy rains in pockets along the Goa, Karnataka coastline may bring up to 50-60 mms in 24 hrs (Wed/Thurs).

Light rains in South Konkan and Southern Maharashtra next 2 days.

M-1, after being stationary for a day, is now "pushed" Eastwards by the trough of M-2.
M-2, as a trough in the upper levels, is already formed and is over Iran. The trough from M-2 extends Southwards into the 23N region.

Next 2 days, M-2 will approach Pakistan, with precipitation in the Northern regions.Rainfall gradually increases from Thursday. Islamabad remains cloudy with light rain, but increase in precipitation from Friday/Saturday.
Friday and Saturday, precipitation extends into Sindh regions and NW plains of India. Delhi NCR may see showers on Friday and Saturday.

Against earlier predictions, if M-2 is moving in, it may not permit the undue heating up of the Northern Plains of the Sub Continent in the immediate next few days.

Mumbai, partly cloudy and stuffy. Very humid and cloudy on Thursday and Friday. Light rains expected in the Pune and Ghats areas on Thursday/Friday.

Very squally weather ( W/SW winds) over Kolkata on Wednesday and Thursday. 
Dust raising Squalls in Saurahtra and Kutch next 2 days. 

Posted Tuesday Morning:

BB-1 tracked 110 kms West since last report, and is at 6N and 78E...at 1004 mb. ...more on Tuesday evening

Delhi NCR received thunder showers in some parts. S'jung measured 15 mms, result of moving M-1 as mentioned on Sunday. Should move away today and bring in the heat wave...

Posted Monday Night:

BB-1 has moved West, and stationed at 7N and 79E on Monday Night. Several parts of Southern TN and Kerala got showers. Thiruvananthpuram measured 29 mms till 8.30 pm IST on Monday.

Tracking N/NW from here. Under the influence of the upper winds at 500 mb levels.
heaviest rains expected in Kanyakumari, Tirunelveli, Thuthukodi and Ramanathpuram regions of TN. Southern Kerala, upto Kochi may receive heavy showers. 

Bangalore will be cloudy, and will get thunder showers from Tuesday, increasing from Wednesday. Around 40-50 mms between Wednesday and Thursday.

LWD will be shifting west. Off the coast, BB-1 will get embedded in the LWD trough, and may emerge in the Arabian Sea off the Karnataka coast. 
Heavy rains in Southern Interior Karnataka and coastal Karnataka from Tuesday evening.

System could slip inland into Karnataka again on Thursday, and could bring torrential rains to Interior Karnataka and Goa on Thursday.

Next Post Tuesday Evening

Posted on Sunday Evening:

1....A Low ( BB-1 or AS-1 ?)  has formed just W/SW off Sri Lanka in the Gulf of Mannar. The Low, 1006 mb at sea level, extends up to 700 mb levels. This Low, is embedded in the "extended " LWD in the Central Peninsula regions. 

Heavy rains, 30/40 mms,  are expected on Monday and Tuesday in Southern TN regions of Kanyakumari, Tirunelveli, Ramnathpuram and Tuthukodi. Southern Kerala , including Thiruvananthpuram Kollam and Kochi ( 20-30 mms, and 50 mms in Western Ghats of Kerala) will get heavy thunder showers.

Now, seeing the synoptic situation and possibilities, we can first safely forecast the Low becoming Well Marked, and moving into the Arabian Sea by Tuesday. 
Currently, dry air, associated with the High Pressure in the Arabian Sea, is blocking the passage into the Western Arabian Sea region. 
The current flow of 700 mb level, that is the height of the Low, is driving it Westwards, but, on deepening, we may see the NE 200 hp stream dominating. But, the 100 mb stream, now at North blowing dirction, may influence the system to track Northwards.

After Tuesday 6th May, we may see the system moving N/NW, slightly off the coast, till Karnataka coast. Due to strong SW flow at 850 hp levels, it is possible that heavy rains , > 70 mms, will pour along the North Kerala and Karnataka coasts later in the week. 
Goa may see rains by the weekend, maybe up to 50 mms in a day. We shall review this again.

The next stage will be followed, and the up date after 24 hours , Monday evening.

2...Existing LWD will continue to pour rains in interior Karnataka, particularly more in S.I.K.

UAC over W.Bengal has moved Eastwards, and lies over Bangladesh and adjoining Tripura. This region will get very heavy thunder showers on Monday.

3....M-1 , with an induced low, is moving Eastwards into Northern India. Precipitation is likely in Northern pakistan, North and NW India next 2 days.

After a partly cloudy afternoon, with dust storm/thunder shower in some parts, the NCR region starts heating up from Tuesday to target >44c again.
Kolkata, the UAC has moved away, so some chance of Thunder shower in vicinity on Monday...and the party ends from Tuesday !

Monday, cloudy and some rain spells in Islamabad, and getting hot Tuesday onwards as M-1 moves away.
Parts of Interior Sindh, including Nawabshah, may get the thunder shower on Monday. Very hot ( >46c) from Tuesday onwards.
Hot for Karachi, as the mercury targets 39c by Tuesday.

Tentaively, I may say, M-2 may arrive next Monday...

See Pradeep's Page for Latest Rain amounts from Storms in Bengal...This Page is updated daily !

Monsoon Watch -3 2014 (Additional)...May 2nd 2014

The enhanced convective phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation is located across the western hemisphere and is gradually propagating eastwards. 
The presence of ITCZ is  in the northern hemispheric near equatorial region as well as the rainfall peak which occurred over the south peninsula. Hence, ITCZ  seems to have crossed the Equator, 8 days ahead of the normal date.

A lull in the passage of western disturbances across north-west India aided in the increase in day maximum temperatures to rise to their near / above normal values over north-west & central India.

Jet Streams: The core was located around Lat. 28°N with the wind speed varying between 90-119 kts around 200 hPa.

The Important Parameter of the LWD formation in the Peninsula (bringing in required moisture) is also well formed. It is giving good adequate precipitation in the Southern regions (See map below ) 

(Pradeep's Page gives the daily figures)

SSTs are warming in the Arabian Sea to around 31c off the Goa and Kerala coast and 30c in the Lakshdweep Seas. Mumbai off coast SST was 29c on Saturday (last readings).. But, sooner than expected, we see strong North winds along the Somali coast, which has commenced the Somali Current effect. SSTs along the Somali coast is 24c. 
Today's SST map is reproduced here to show the Sea temperature not falling sufficiently yet along the Somali coast. It is presently just about around 24c in spots.

Now, this difference with the Central Arabian Sea plays a key role in cloud formations off the Western Coastline of India in the Central Arabian Seas. The SST along the Somali coast will rapidly fall to around 18/20c in the next 10 days.
More on Somali current  here: 

The arrival date (Below) is calculated seeing today's position. Further from today, we presume the normal rate of progress of the Monsoon Parameters. 

This initial estimated dates are subject to some changes, and will be finalised around mid-May, when the puzzle pieces look well arranged.

As of today, there seems to be a slight advancement in the dates  in the Arabian Sea. Bay Branches of the Monsoon seems to be on normal dates. There could  be a advancement on the arrival date of the Monsoon in the Arabian Sea branch.
Bay branch needs to wait a few days for the High to fizzle out, and to get going. 

Arabian Sea Branch: Though there is some improvement in most of the parameters, and most parameters are on time, and are +ve.

(Dates in brackets are the normal dates of arrival).

On these calculations, Vagaries would  maintain the Monsoon to reach Maldives around the 22nd of May 2014 (20th May), Sri Lanka around 25th/26th of May (25th May).
Kerala by the 30th/31st May (1st June).

Regular Pre Monsoon thundershowers ( almost daily basis)  could start from around 1st June in Goa and South Konkan, and 3rd/4th June in Mumbai. Outer townships and Ghat regions can get pre monsoon thunder showers by around 2nd June 2014.

Hence, maintaining and presuming the normal rate of progress, Goa should get Monsoon rains by around 5th June (5th June).

Monsoon set in Mumbai by around 8th/9th June (9th June). 

Bay Branch: SWM should hit South Andaman Sea around 15th.May (12th May), and rest Andaman Islands by 18th-20th May 2013. NE States could get the regular Monsoon set in by 1st/2nd June this year.

Generally moves up (normally) the Bay at a sustained speed, and Kolkata should see Monsoon arrival by the 9th of June.

We stop at this initial progress, and work out further region wise progress at a later date  (as is the usual practice in Vagaries' MWs).

These Dates are worked out and estimated as per my personal calculations and may not be used for commercial purposes.The dates are not binding on anyone and no responsibility is taken if used for any purposes.

Additional Part of MW-3 will be put up with Monsoon arrival estimates Today , Friday, late night IST

Heat Wave continues on Thursday and Friday in Sindh, Rajasthan, UP, MP , Vidharbh, Odisha and Northern AP.
Hot conditions abate, with a drop in day temperatures from Saturday in the above regions. Temperatures could fall by 2/3c in the daytime.

Thursday, 1st May:

May begins in Northern Pakistan and North India Hill States with the Western Disturbance, M-1. Precipitation expected in Northern Pakistan regions of Pak Punjab, Islamabad, Balochistan. Sukkur region can get the dust/Thunderstorm.

In India, precipitation expected in Kashmir and HP hills. Punjab can get the isolated thunder shower.
Thunder showers possible in Western Maharastra region, that is Pune, Satara, Sangli. Mahableshwar can get the afternoon thunder shower.  Southwards into adjoining Karnataka. Belgaum will get the afternoon thunder shower.
Heavy showers in Northern Coastal APand adjoining Odisha.

Friday 2nd May:

Rains likely in Extreme North Pakistan, covering Islamabad, Pak Punjab and Upper Sindh.
Rains likely in Northern India and Punjab and parts of Rajasthan.

A vertical LWD is visible in the form of Thunder showers from Northern Maharashtra (Nasik) thru Pune, Stara, Sangli and Marathwada regions into Interior Karnataka. Belgaum and Interior Karnataka will get the thunder showers.Thunder showers in Kerala will be heavy in some regions.
Rains or thunder showers in coastal Odisha and North coastal AP.

Satursday 3rd May:

Rains continue in places of Northern Pak Punjab and Indian states of Kashmir and HP. Plains on NW India too will get the dust/ Thunder storms . Punjab and Haryana and Western UP can get the dust storm or thunder storm.
Thunder storms will pop up in Western Maharashtra and Marathwada. Aurangabad may receive a thunder shower with squally winds.
Interior Karnataka will continue its rainy spell till on Saturday.


Thursday 1st May, Friday 2nd May and Saturday 3rd May: 

Next 3 days, Pune will see thundery developments from afternoon. Light rain in some areas. More rains likely on Friday night. Thunder showers in Mahableswar on friday/Saturday.

Eastern sky of Mumbai will see thunder clouds developing. Otherwise partly cloudy skies, with humid days.Friday evening, thunder clouds may bring light rains in the Eastern Outer townships of Kalyan, Badlapur, Panvel and Navi Mumbai. 
Lonavala and ghats region can get the showers .

New Delhi, getting very hot on Thursday and Friday, with the thermometer touching 44c. Thunder shower possible on Saturday.

After a hot and sultry Thursday, at long last, relief for Bangalore as thunder showers expected on Friday and Saturday.

Kolkata: Though may not cross 40c, hot days at 38/39c continues till friday. Friday some storms form in the vicnity. Saturday, the storm may target parts of Kolkata.