Posted Monday Night:
BB-5 has formed as we mentioned, and is likely to become a depression. Situated off the North A.P. coast, it will track Westwards as mentioned.

Had mentioned in the comments that there would be a decrease in rains on Monday , and to revive on Tuesday, but BB-5 has activated the trough off North Konkan a day ahead of schedule...

Against the expectations, Mumbai City and Suburbs received heavy rains on Monday...With Scruz receiving the first 100 of the season...
In 12 hrs from 8.30 am-8.30 pm on Monday:
Scruz recorded 127 mms, Colaba  49 mms.
Some 12 hrs rainfall in various parts of Mumbai: Andheri 108 mms, BKC 78 mms, Bandra 73 mms, CST 74 mms, Chembur 81 mms, Dadar E 91 mms, Ghatkopar 95 mms, Goregaon 73 mms, Vikhroli 97 mms, Kurla 101 mms.
Pune recorded 10 mms with a maximum temperature was 25.4c on Monday.
Mumbai: Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will see intermittent and frequent showers in Mumbai City and Suburbs. Nearly consistent rains brings back the monsoonish atmosphere.
Heavy showers expected again on Monday night.
Around 70-90 mms (Average) expected on Tuesday ( after 8.30 am) and 50-70 mms on Wednesday/Thursday.


The Highest totals in Maharastra this season till 17th July: Compiled by Vagarian Abhijit Modak.
Shirgaon 3226 mms, Lamaj 2847 mms, Kesari (Kolhapur) 2710 mms, Davdi Camp (Mulshi) 2478 mms, Amboli 2440 mms, Walvan 2421 mms, Kitwade 2360 mms, Matheran 2318 mms, Lonavla 2265 mms, Mahableshwar 2239 mms, Bhimashankar 2228 mms, Patgaon 2127 mms, Navaja 2143 mms, Gajapur 2100 mms, Tapola 2097 mms.

Position of Storage in Lakes supplying water to Mumbai as on 17th: Information from Vagarian Jayesh Mehta.
With Modak Sagar overflowing, the gates of Middle Vaitarna were opened, otherwise it would have also overflowed. 

Total storage is at 67 % at 987 Mcum. With a daily consumption of about 4 Mcum, Mumbai has about 245 days of water available: That is upto about 15th March 2018.

On Tuesday, 18th, BB-5 precipitate heavy Rains in Coastal A.P, Chattisgarh and Telengana.Rains likely in Konkan and Goa.
Wednesday will bring heavy rains to Chattisgarh, Telengana, parts of Marathwada, Vidharbh, East MP and Konkan .
Nagpur will get heavy showers on Wednesday and Thursday.
Akola region will get moderate showers upto 15-20 mms per day in the next 3 days.

Posted Saturday Night:

Massive amounts of rainfall was recorded in Gujarat. Rain amounts as on Saturday 15th Morning:
Saurashtra: Chotilla 450 mms, Rajkot 348 mms, Tankara 340 mms, Kaprada 260 mms, Muli 160 mms, Padhari 159 mms,  Kapadvanj 144 mms, Posina 137 mms,
Danta 130 mms.
As mentioned, the rains have shifted to Kutch, with Bhuj getting 92 mms in the 9 hrs ended 5.30 pm on Saturday.
Decrease in rainfall in Gujarat Region and Saurashtra on Sunday.

A UAC/Low moves into Northern Coastal A.P. on Monday.  Heavy rains expected in Northern A.P. on Monday.The system will move Westwards into Telengana.

Mumbai Scruz recieved 68 mms and Colaba 24 mms till 8.30 am Saturday. In the day on Saturdfay, Scruz recieved another 69 mms and Colaba 7 mms in the next 12 hrs ended 8.30 pm Saturday.
Expecting intermittent showers on Sunday, around 35-40 mms . Reduction in rainfall on Monday.

Just for Information, Scruz total from 1st June till date is 812 mms, Colaba 659 mms. Mahableshwar total is 2034 mms, Mathran 2118 mms, Lonavla 1959 mms and Thane 1263 mms.

Posted Thursday Night:
Writing and updating this blog after 6 days:

There is a delay since the last posting, so we take a leap from last reporting into the current scenario:
1. The Monsoon axis has moved Southwards as expected after the 11th.
2. Refering to the last post, the Low formed in the Northern Bay as we mentioned and is now a Well Marked Low over the NW parts of M.P. Likely to move  Westwards. May not strengthen significantly.
3.  The west coast off shore trough is strengthening.

Heavy Rains expected next 2 days: Gujarat Region, Northern parts of Saurashtra . Rainfall around 150- 200 mms expected. 
Northern Maharshtra also will get heavy rains.
Cool days with showers expected in Nasik this weekend, around 10-20 mms per day.
Ahmadabad: Heavy showers on Friday and Saturday accumulating about 100-125 mms in 2 days.
Indore : After a cool Thursday at 24.5c, with 17 mms in 12 hrs ended 8.30 pm, some showers expected on Friday.

Sunday, rainfall moves into Kutch and coastal Sindh.
Karachi can expect Showers on Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

Mumbai: Friday and Saturday will have cloudy skies with intermittent/frequent rain showers. Showers in the day, and some heavy, will bring around 50-60 mms per day.
Sunday will also be cloudy with occasional showers bringing around 40-50 mms.
Pune: Pune had good frequent showers on Thursday, with some regions measuring upto 25 mms till 10 pm IST.
Cloudy cool weekend. Showers on Saturday, with decreasing intensity by Sunday.

Posted Friday 7th Night:
1. The monsoon axis which has shifted North to the Himalayan foothills has created a sort of weakening of rains in the West, North West (India), Peninsula and Central India regions. As a result, the core low pressure of the seasonal Low in the Pakistan region has also moved North. This has resulted in the weakening of the West coast off shore trough. However, rains in Uttarakhand, U.P, Bihar and Gangetic West Bengal continues.

2. The axis moves slightly Southwards from current position around 10th of this Month. A Low pressure may form in the Northern Bay around 12th.

3. As the Axis moves South, the of shore trough along the West coast may strengthen after the 11th. 

Mumbai, on Saturday and Sunday, will be partly cloudy with few showers. Around 5-10 mms per day. As of now, it seems that Monsoon will strengthen in Mumbai after Tuesday 11th July.

Hot day for Delhi NCR on Saturday and Sunday.

Almost dry weekend for Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat, West M.P, Interior Maharashtra & Karnatak and Tamil Nadu.
Almost dry in Sindh regions of Pakistan. 
Karachi partly cloudy with light rain in some parts this Saturday/Sunday.

Kolkata had good rain showers again on Friday, with DumDum recording 57 mms in 12 hrs ended 8.30 pm IST.

 Maps compiled by Vagarian Tejas. Data of Ghats and Interior from Vagarian Abhijit

Posted Thursday Night:

Rainfall amounts from the regions we expected:
Some heavy rainfall amounts from (in cms) U.P. in last 24 hrs:
SARDANAGAR 16, SAMBHAL 12, CHURK 11, PHOOLPUR ALB 10, HANDIA 10, GHORAWAL 10, DUDHI 8

Wednesday  Lucknow (U.P.) had good showers amounting to 36 mms. 
From Bihar in cms:KATORIA, 9, UDAI KISHANGANJ 8, TAIBPUR 8, JHANJHARPUR 7, KISHANGANJ 7, BASUA 7
Gaya (Bihar) measured 107 mms upto Wednesday morning.
Kolkata had heavy showers Thursday amounting to 57 mms in 12 hrs till 8.30 pm IST. 

Heavy rains expected in Uttarakhand this weekend.
This weekend, almost dry weather expected in Punjab, Rajasthan, West M.P, Gujarat, Vidharbh and Marathwada (Maharashtra).

Mumbai: Mumbai Colaba received heavy showers on Thursday evening, amounting to 12 mms till 8.30 pm.
After a few passing showers on Friday 7th, Mumbai can see a decrease in rains on Saturday and Sunday. Weekend will be partly cloudy.  Few showers in parts of city will measure 5-10 mms.

Pune : Partly cloudy but days crossing 30c next few days. Light rains in parts of city. Around 5 mms expected on Sunday.

Posted on Tuesday Night:

Estimate for Wednesday 5th July and Thursday 6th July:
1. Due to trough in the Northern Plains, Heavy rains likely on Wednesday and Thursday in U.P, Bihar, Sikkim and Sub Himalayan W.Bengal and NE States. 
Some places in S.I. Karnataka can receive heavy rains also. 
Expect showers in parts of Bangalore on Wednesday and Thursday evening.

All Estimates of 5th and 6th July:
2. Not much  rains in Saurashtra next 2 days. No meaningful increase in Marathwada and Vidharbh.
Very light isolated showers in parts of Ahmadabad. Almost dry. 
Not much rains in Indore.

3. Good chance of a thunder shower in Kolkata on Wednesday. Thursday will also see a heavy thunder shower.

4. Light to moderate showers in Delhi NCR next two days, rainfall 7-10 mms.

5. Mumbai: Wednesday will be cloudy with a few periods of sun . Some occasional showers. A few passing showers may be sharp and heavy. Around 15-20 mms expected. For Thursday, Mumbai may be cloudy with intermittent showers, may be accompanied by thunder. An occasional shower may be heavy. Around 25-30 mms expected.
Outer townships may be partly cloudy get showers which may not be persistent , some heavy and accompanied by thunder. Showers may show a bit of an increase in frequency on Thursday.


6. Karachi: Partly cloudy with light rains in parts of Karachi. (Next 2 days estimate). Almost dry weather in Sindh.

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See Mumbai Page : Map of Stations crossing 100 cms in Mumbai Metropolitan Region. Compiled by Vagarian Tejas from Data provided by Vagarian Abhijit Modak.

See Update on Mumbai Page:
> Latest Position of Storage in Mumbai Lakes...From Vagarian Jayesh Mehta
> June Rainfall for Maharashtra Ghat Regions
> June rainfall for Mumbai Region
> June rainfall for Maharashtra and Goa Coastal Places...Maps compiled by Vagarian Tejas from data sent by Vagarians