Monday, July 17, 2017

Posted Monday Night:
BB-5 has formed as we mentioned, and is likely to become a depression. Situated off the North A.P. coast, it will track Westwards as mentioned.

Had mentioned in the comments that there would be a decrease in rains on Monday , and to revive on Tuesday, but BB-5 has activated the trough off North Konkan a day ahead of schedule...

Against the expectations, Mumbai City and Suburbs received heavy rains on Monday...With Scruz receiving the first 100 of the season...
In 12 hrs from 8.30 am-8.30 pm on Monday:
Scruz recorded 127 mms, Colaba  49 mms.
Some 12 hrs rainfall in various parts of Mumbai: Andheri 108 mms, BKC 78 mms, Bandra 73 mms, CST 74 mms, Chembur 81 mms, Dadar E 91 mms, Ghatkopar 95 mms, Goregaon 73 mms, Vikhroli 97 mms, Kurla 101 mms.
Pune recorded 10 mms with a maximum temperature was 25.4c on Monday.
Mumbai: Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will see intermittent and frequent showers in Mumbai City and Suburbs. Nearly consistent rains brings back the monsoonish atmosphere.
Heavy showers expected again on Monday night.
Around 70-90 mms (Average) expected on Tuesday ( after 8.30 am) and 50-70 mms on Wednesday/Thursday.


The Highest totals in Maharastra this season till 17th July: Compiled by Vagarian Abhijit Modak.
Shirgaon 3226 mms, Lamaj 2847 mms, Kesari (Kolhapur) 2710 mms, Davdi Camp (Mulshi) 2478 mms, Amboli 2440 mms, Walvan 2421 mms, Kitwade 2360 mms, Matheran 2318 mms, Lonavla 2265 mms, Mahableshwar 2239 mms, Bhimashankar 2228 mms, Patgaon 2127 mms, Navaja 2143 mms, Gajapur 2100 mms, Tapola 2097 mms.

Position of Storage in Lakes supplying water to Mumbai as on 17th: Information from Vagarian Jayesh Mehta.
With Modak Sagar overflowing, the gates of Middle Vaitarna were opened, otherwise it would have also overflowed. 

Total storage is at 67 % at 987 Mcum. With a daily consumption of about 4 Mcum, Mumbai has about 245 days of water available: That is upto about 15th March 2018.

On Tuesday, 18th, BB-5 precipitate heavy Rains in Coastal A.P, Chattisgarh and Telengana.Rains likely in Konkan and Goa.
Wednesday will bring heavy rains to Chattisgarh, Telengana, parts of Marathwada, Vidharbh, East MP and Konkan .
Nagpur will get heavy showers on Wednesday and Thursday.
Akola region will get moderate showers upto 15-20 mms per day in the next 3 days.

72 comments:

Prasad Godse said...

Pune-nagar-nasik
rain this week..?

sset said...

when will low pressure over GUJ fizzle out? West coast trough gives intense 3 digit rains over Konkan + ghats, but only 2 digit rains over coastal KAR and Kerala (highly deficit). What weather conditions favour rains over Cauvery basin which is missing since june?

rajesh said...

Prasad: Consistent rains continue next 3 days in Pune and Nasik. Slight increase in Nasik after Thursday.

sset said...

Chikkanahalli south interior KAR 6mm, Bangalore 50mm of rain since june. Such low values???

sset said...

Kandla GUJ 200mm in 24 hrs.

sset said...

My feeble weather knowledge says unless rains stop over MAHA,Central,GUJ region south India has no chance of any meaningful rain. That means wait for NEM which is 90% flop.

sset said...

As stated by vagaries heavy weight stations from MAHA have exceeded Augumbe KAR- which is struggling with 2 digit rains in july - Augumbe (2000mm which is very less by this time should have been 3000mm+++). Again like 2016 southern India suffers from massive deficit.
Kerala none have stations can be ever present in top 10-20.... all are losing every passing year...

sset said...

Non stop 24*7 torrential downpours over Navi Mumbai - IMD alert over Mumbai... seems entire MAHA for extreme pounding waterfalls...heaviest of season in store.

sset said...

GFS cola continues extreme rains over MAHA,GUJ + central India till Aug. But no rains for Southern India.

Cumulus Arjun said...

Santacruz - 156 mm till 5:30 am

sset said...

IMD long term forecast seems to be inaccurate - initial prediction was excess monsoon over NE but less over NW India - but we see opposite ???
Bangalore huge deficit by 60% - almost monsoon is NIL... worse than 2016 (which is also worse)

Vijay Anand said...

Please rename this website. Let the new name be "Vagaries of SSET"...lol

Saurabh Dwivedi said...

Telangana and Coastal Andhra have had a very good monsoon so far.
So wrong to generalise for entire South India.

Only SI Karnataka has had a really bad monsoon so far but there too if you take the rains for the last 90 days it is not bad. May was surplus while June rains were deficient.

sunny fernandes said...

Its will be really intresting to meet..Mr SSET......

I feel there is nothing unusual everything is falling inline .
The first half of monsoon season was weak in the western sector.
The second half is doing grt why to panic on this ....its normal we cannot expect all the 4 months monsoon clouds to remain gathered only on the west coast ..
And the places which receive northeast monsoon do not benefit much from southwest monsoon ..
After all its all about...vagaries of the weather .

Anand Agarwal said...

Wat about kolkata for next 6-7 days

Nilay Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government Bureau of meteorology

Issued 18 July 2017

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

Tropical Pacific Ocean warmer than average, but ENSO neutral to stay for 2017

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. All climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to stay ENSO neutral for the rest of 2017.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central tropical Pacific (the NINO3.4 region) have been warmer than average, though still in the neutral range, since mid-April. The current NINO3.4 value of +0.5 °C is the result of a localised warm anomaly. The overall sea surface temperature pattern is inconsistent with a developing El Niño, meaning further ocean warming and El Niño development remains unlikely. This is reflected in neutral ENSO outlooks from all international climate models surveyed. Other indicators of ENSO, such as the Southern Oscillation Index, cloudiness near the Date Line, and trade winds also remain at neutral levels.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. However, two of six climate models suggest positive IOD thresholds could be reached in the coming months. Only one of these models suggests these will last long enough to be considered a positive IOD event. Positive IOD events are typically associated with below average winter and spring rainfall over central and southern Australia.

Next update expected on 1 August 2017 

 

Abhijit said...

@ sunny fernandes. forget meeting to sset.. He is virtual blogger never comes in front physically nor reveals own identity also.. We had tried lot to convince him from last 3-4 yrs to come for Vagaries meet if he himself claim that he is settling in Belapur, Navi Mumbai but never has replied. Also had urge to blog with full name but all in vain ! Just for one time in some comment has put his name after request from all bloggers and Rajesh Sir.

And now coming to topic he repetitively chants same desertification and does wrong comparison of S.I Kar with Konkan.. Never does Comparison of Mumbai rain vs Mangalore rain !! So few years back we also were replying to him but now has stopped doing it as it is complete waste of time and all on deaf ears.

It's Rajesh sir greatness freedom of blogging so his comment are not blocked in spite of same repetitive matters since many years.. There are famous blogs in Chennai/Bangalore also but there he will not dare to comment as he knows he will be banned from blog after few attempts so just read their blogs and chants same matter here

Shripad Nadiger said...

ok so after a long time..rains have finally taken a break here in Mira Road (North Mumbai) since past couple of hours. Let's see whats in store for the night and tomorrow..excited..!!

Vijay Anand said...

Abhijit, Nice comments

sset said...

I donot agree 2016 SWM failure over KER/KAR is repeating on 2017 also - same thing happened last year after june monsoon failed - if u notice Augume is continuously missing 3 digit rains since july same happened last year... Cauvery is missing rains which is not good for entire southern India... Anomaly need investigation - excess rains in MAHA/GUJ (sustained low pressure) may be cause for missing rains over southern India..
People may comment but my stand is definite some climate change is happening over entire Cauvery basin....
May month monsoon is just pre-monsoon or convection oriented which is negligible...
NEM failure is 80-90% most of lows end as duds..
IMD prediction is also wrong this year- NW India is having best of monsoon ever seen and they predicted normal for souther India which is turning out to be drought...

Again GUJ pounded with massive 3 digits (400-200mm is becoming common) in cms

VALSAD (DIST VALSAD) 28, PARDI (DIST VALSAD) 27, CHIKHLI (DIST NAVSARI) 25, GANDEVI (DIST NAVSARI) 20, DAMAN (DIST DAMAN) 20, DHARAMPUR (DIST VALSAD) 20, KHERGAM (DIST NAVSARI) 18, KAPRADA (DIST VALSAD) 12, VAPI (DIST VALSAD) 11, SILVASSA (DIST DADARA & NAGAR HAVELI) 11

sunny fernandes said...

Thanks Abhijit i appreciate .....finally rains have taken a break in Vasai .

sset said...

Abhijit - by next 1-2 spells Mumbai will exceed Mangalore.
Infact as u have seen many stations of MAHA have exceeded classcial KAR Augumbe.
Coastal KAR has been just receiving 2 digit rains since july instead of 3 digits.

sset said...

http://bangaloremirror.indiatimes.com/bangalore/others/reservoirs-running-dry/articleshow/59638764.cms

Shivkumar Mogal said...

East Vidarbha (Maharashtra) lashed by extremely heavy rain.
Rainfall on 19 July 2017 ending 8:30 am.
(Above 200 mm)
Chamorshi (Gadchiroli) 519 mm
Taradgaon (Gadchiroli) 380 mm
Yenapur (Gadchiroli) 310 mm
Bhamaragad (Gadchiroli) 305 mm
Mohali (Chandrapur) 211 mm
Brahmapuri (Chandrapur) 208 mm
Gatta (Gadchiroli) 206 mm

Florence Khape said...

All rains gone sun is out in Goregaon ..shining brightly .

Animish Masurkar said...

Started raining again in Mumbai Andheri east

Abhijit said...

After getting 3 digit in Agumbe, Bhagmandala & Talacauery belt some one is quite here no rain figure report !

Some rainfall report from link: http://starofmysore.com/its-raining-in-kodagu/

And now Mangalore & Mumbai Seasonal Rainfall till today:

Panambur 1413 mm & Colaba 887mm

Mangalore AP 1531mm & Santacruz 1184mm

So now all will know true facts ! Comparing Mumbai/ Navi Mumbai with Bangalore instead of Mangalore is big joke

Shripad Nadiger said...

The rains have subsided today in Mumbai. Has the offshore trough weakened ?

rohit aroskar said...

Mumbai Vihar 1900 mms seasonal rains tl now..

Talacauvery 264 mms today ..yearly 2466 mms ..seasonal 2100 mms

Kanakumbi(Goa border)..225 mms today ..yearly 2563 mms..seasonal 2361 mms..

Today 3 digits figures for karnataka ghats and 10-50 mms at many stations in north and south interior karnataka

Vijay Anand said...

SSET , HEAVY RAINS IN COORG for the last 2 days. Burnol effect for you...lol

Vijay Anand said...

By next 1-2 spells Mumbai will exceed Mangalore from SSET

Give technical explanation else would be considered as usual crap from you.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Abhijit and Rohit great work and fast and accurate as always. When rain figures speaks everything is said. :-)

Vinod Desai said...

Sir,
What is forecast for lonavala for this weekend.

SVT said...

Rajesh Sir so far this season not updating regularly like previous seasons. I'm guessing either he is busy or on holidays.

rohit aroskar said...

Today again 3 digits figures for karnataka ghats ( Agumbe 200 mms , Madikeri 1112 mms ) and 10-30 mms at many stations in north and south interior karnataka

rohit aroskar said...

* Madikeri 112 mms

Nilay Wankawala said...

Happy to note Karnataka figures Rohit.....May rain God shower his blessings to whole of India.....through our the season

Cumulus Arjun said...

Intermittent showers here since morning and heavy showers from past 2 hours here in Goregaon mumbai

Deepak Kotian said...

Sir Pls update weather forecaste for this weekend

Abhijit said...

Extremely heavy rainfall events in Karnataka ghats today

Some figures in cms

Bhagamandala 29
Kottigehara 21
Agumbe 20
Hosanagara 16
Virajpet 15
Kammaradi 14
Napoklu and Kalasa 13
Madikeri 12

Abhijit said...

With 341mm today, Shirgaon crossed 400cm mark in seasonal rain.. As 4035mm till today
With this overtakes Cherrapunji, as seasonal rainfall 3777 mm till today

Abhijit said...

Kitwade 409mm today . First 400+ from ghats of this season

Jithin VK said...

Today vadakara got 87mm rain .crossed 2000mm Mark.seasonal rainfall 2068.3+mm. June1 to july20 got all days rain here except june18th 0mm

Deepak Kotian said...

Rajesh Sir where r u

Nilay Wankawala said...

Rohit and Abhijit great work. We are getting regular updates on rainfall figures in Nd out of MAHARASHTRA.

KHYATI PANDIT said...

Sir.what are your predictions for rain in Mumbai for Friday as well as Saturday and Sunday...bcoz it's continuously rain in Mira road n bhayander from 8am....its moderate to heavy to very heavy rain here at present....

KHYATI PANDIT said...

Sir it's raining with gusty wind in Mira road n bhayander from 8am...its raining moderate to heavy to very heavy rains here sir what are your predictions for rain in Mumbai for Friday Saturday and Sunday......

sset said...

As per IMD - Again low pressure over GUJ (4th time in month of july) extreme rains 400mm++ likely + multiple UAC - GUJ/MAHA flooding rains for next 3 days... Some anomaly for such series of lows???
bloggers - seen southern rains - nothing compared to giant MAHA - still weather systems are eluding and rain for multiple days for rivers to fill...
Look for IMD seasonal report - major deficit is over southern India. (anyway all the best)

sset said...

Many people laugh at me... Negative correlation between North Arabian sea lows over GUJ/MAHA and southern rains -means excess rains over GUJ/MAHA are responsible for vanishing southern rains which is what is happening.
some of experts from KEA blog

"No vertical trough extension down in latitude if SWM system moved into Gujarat region.."

That is what we are observing since 2016,2017 which is not good for southern India...

Shripad Nadiger said...

I guess Rajesh is out of station. We are missing his analysis in the prime time of monsoon.

Vinod Desai said...

Reduction in rain whole of india from end of july till 10 August. Break monsoon conditions for 2 weeks.
Read in Time of India today.

Vijith Menon said...

rajesh sir - as per IMD - there is a fresh low pressure area over South Gujarat Region.
Will it increase rainfall again in South Gujarat, Mumbai and surrounding areas.

rohit aroskar said...

Mumbai Vihar ..seasonal rains crossed 2000 mms today ..2040 mms

Shivkumar Mogal said...

Marathwada heading towards Draught? As below normal rain in July as every low skips it and now break monsoon period starts. Below is analysis of July rainfall till today.

Total stations = 420
Stations below 100 mm = 353
Stations below 50 mm =144

Source: Agri department

Pavan said...

Sset From last six years you are comments are the same...i dont know whether you are happy for Gujrat rain or Southern drought.
You never compare anything else just Guj Raj rains with south...why are you so pesimist for your own region...

Vinod Desai said...

Who are top 20 of india at present.I think maharashtra will have good number of station this time.

Sarvesh said...

interestingly tulsi and vihar smallest lakes in mumbai havent filled till now even after so much rains and bigger lakes are filling first.

Animish Masurkar said...

Very heavy rains in andheri east Mumbai from past 2 hours.

Animish Masurkar said...

Very heavy rains in Andheri East Mumbai from past 2 hours.

sset said...

GUJ again pounded - many stations in range 200-300mm range...
Entire monsoon dominated by GUJ/MAHA.... Next low by another 2 weeks in pipeline

Seems geography needs to be re-written...
Below old links some 10-20 years back no longer holds good - whole climate has changed.
http://www.rainwaterharvesting.org/Urban/Rainfall.htm

parshuram shinde said...

Heavy rain in santacruz

Deepak Kotian said...

Where is Rajesh Sir why there is no predictions for Mumbai and the suburban

KHYATI PANDIT said...

It's raining heavy to very heavy n at times moderate rain in n around Mira road n bhayander from morning 7am..sir plzzz give us your views n predictions on the comming days..eagerly waiting it from u sir

Nilay Wankawala said...

It's been raining and raining heavily all around. I don't recollect single instant when Rajesh sir has been off the blog since last so many years i have been reading his work and following this blog. Sorry breaking the rule of the blog and posting comment which is not related to weather. Wish everything is fine at Rajesh sir's end. Hoping to hear from you very soon.

sset said...

For all bloggers.... drought over southern India intensifies same as 2016....

http://www.firstpost.com/india/drought-looms-over-karnataka-kerala-tamil-nadu-while-rest-of-india-experiences-normal-monsoon-3833611.html

http://www.oneindia.com/india/are-karnataka-kerala-tamil-nadu-grip-drought-2499951.html

sset said...

Pavan I am not pessimistic unfortunately reverse trend is probable cause which needs to be addressed by environment ministers... linking of rivers or entire agriculture may come to halt, exodus of people due to no water...

Just see below links it is disaster waiting to explode...

http://www.firstpost.com/india/drought-looms-over-karnataka-kerala-tamil-nadu-while-rest-of-india-experiences-normal-monsoon-3833611.html

http://www.oneindia.com/india/are-karnataka-kerala-tamil-nadu-grip-drought-2499951.html

Cumulus Arjun said...

Heavy rain in Goregaon Mumbai

sset said...

Torrential rains over Navi Mumbai - all mountains rumbling with water falls inundating low laying areas.. entire Mumbai,Thane,Navi Mumbai - clouds touching ground.

sset said...

Continuous multiple weather systems u name it is available over GUJ/MAHA (Low,UAC,trough) since june...with this in place no meaningful rain is ever possible for south India...

sset said...

Massive flooding in Gujarat extreme spells 300-400mm in 24hrs. Probably this is first time in history - who knows soon in years to come GUJ may become like Cherrapunji....
Tamil Nadu - dog days - places with 41-42c

Akshay Shah said...

I believe that too much of negativity affects and spreads across faster. Perhaps too much of negativity about south weather pattern is actually affecting the weather pattern there. May not be true or no scientific linkage but still let's think the southern peninsula rainfall is good.

Shripad Nadiger said...

Sun is out here in Mira Road (North Mumbai).