Friday, July 07, 2017

Posted Friday 7th Night:
1. The monsoon axis which has shifted North to the Himalayan foothills has created a sort of weakening of rains in the West, North West (India), Peninsula and Central India regions. As a result, the core low pressure of the seasonal Low in the Pakistan region has also moved North. This has resulted in the weakening of the West coast off shore trough. However, rains in Uttarakhand, U.P, Bihar and Gangetic West Bengal continues.

2. The axis moves slightly Southwards from current position around 10th of this Month. A Low pressure may form in the Northern Bay around 12th.

3. As the Axis moves South, the of shore trough along the West coast may strengthen after the 11th. 

Mumbai, on Saturday and Sunday, will be partly cloudy with few showers. Around 5-10 mms per day. As of now, it seems that Monsoon will strengthen in Mumbai after Tuesday 11th July.

Hot day for Delhi NCR on Saturday and Sunday.

Almost dry weekend for Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat, West M.P, Interior Maharashtra & Karnatak and Tamil Nadu.
Almost dry in Sindh regions of Pakistan
Karachi partly cloudy with light rain in some parts this Saturday/Sunday.

Kolkata had good rain showers again on Friday, with DumDum recording 57 mms in 12 hrs ended 8.30 pm IST.

18 comments:

abizer Kachwala said...

Rajesh sir, it's raining heavily since 11am nonstop in Nagothane district... Wonder where these rains are coming from?? 😊vagarians please provide rainfall data for Nagothane at the end of the day or as per your convenience... I am eager to know the amount..

Vinod Desai said...

It seems at present cherrapunji could be leading with 3336 mm since june 1.

Deepak Kotian said...

Sir this week rain prediction for Mumbai

Deepak Kotian said...

Sir Pls predict on Mumbai rain

Cumulus Arjun said...

IMD has issued heavy rain warning for north Konkan from July 12th.

Deepak Kotian said...

Rajesh Sir ur views on this

sset said...

What about southern India? Drought since last year. Bangalore feeble lakes becomes empty

http://bangaloremirror.indiatimes.com/bangalore/cover-story/water-tanker-mafia-sucking-our-lake-dry/articleshow/59535693.cms

Meanwhile IMD predicts extreme rains (red alert) for MAHA/GUJ - seems regular dumps of 400mm in 24hrs! Watchout for 13,14,15 july
Maybe UAC+west coast trough will ignite North Arabian sea (sweet spot for extreme rains)

sset said...

Vagaries has indicated south movement of monsoon axis and north bay low - maybe that is reason for extreme rains over MAHA / GUJ - 13th-15th as bay low moves west + west coast trough + UAC over RAJ....

Shivkumar Mogal said...

Sir, Heavy rainfall possible over Nashik?

rohit aroskar said...

@ SSET .. How many years it will take for desertification of the droughtprone area you always mention ?

sset said...

Climate change is always a gradual process but nature always gives warning bells before for us to detect and take proactive measures...

Vinod Desai said...

No rains visible yet.Rains not upto mark in july till date.hope situation change.

Florence Khape said...

Some rains happening in Goregaon since last 2 hours ..not the monsoon kind though 🤔

Akshay Shah said...

Rajesh sir, we are waiting for your update on current situation on Monsoon in Mumbai and near prediction.

sarfarajkhan khan said...

Sir pls update the current situation in Mumbai region...when will rain intensify

Cumulus Arjun said...

Pouring in Goregaon

Animish Masurkar said...

Heavy rains in Andheri East mumbai

kesava rajan said...

Every body speaking about SOUTH WEST MONSOON,What about Future DYNAMIC NORTHEAST MONSOON across TAMILNADU,TN is one of the big state,Here all types crops was growing.....now totally drought...last 11years no average rainfall in central part of TN.very much insufficient rainfall mostly all the year after 2006 and only drought.

TN have 5types of different geographical LAND and climatic conditions....
You don't estimate average rainfall adding all regions like CHENNAI,COASTAL,DELTA,WESTERN GHATS.

You concern TN INSIDE MAINLAND as different which is located faraway from BENGAL SEA and WESTERN GHATS FACTORS...(CENTRAL-NORTH-SOUTH INTERIOR MAIN LAND REGIONS).

Kindly make a long range forecast about NORTH EAST MONSOON across TN MAIN LAND.CHENNAI only is not TN.