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Mumbai Scruz heading for Record June Temperature Tuesday !!

This Monsoon, Vagarians are in for a treat !!


Vagaries has Introduced its New Edition.."Vagaries Rainman". 

This edition of Vagaries is a joint partnership with Pradeep John. Pradeep's expertise and information will be available to us via his blog, which has now joined hands and is part of Vagaries...All updates on extreme rainfall and daily rainfall will be updated in this edition directly. 

We now get a daily rainfall detailed update, record rain figures and some interesting rain facts in this edition...
Happy reading and thanks Pradeep for joining vagaries. 

( Vagaries Rainman has joined the chain of vagaries' publications and is seen as a tag next to vagaries Extremes...)

Latest Monday Night Update on Arabian Sea Low on Current Weather Page...

And We Move On....!!! This App will be useful as it will be giving Short Updates on Local City weather ( Mumbai included )..regularly

A Wrapper for our Blog.....Vagaries' App now on Google Play Store.

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El Nino Watch ( 9th June 2014):

Above normal SSTs increased in the Equatorial Pacific and Nino 3.4 region. All Nino indices increased in May, With anomalies ranging from 0.6c in Nino 3.4 to 1.6c in Nino 1+2. In contrast, sub sea temperatures decreased.Low level winds were normal, except some anomaly in the Westerlies in the Eastern Pacific.
Lack of convection in spite of increasing SSTs, or the lack of response to the rising SSTs, show ENSO as neutral.
Hence in May, the chances of El Nino weakened slightly.Still, dynamical models favour a moderate El Nino, sometime in September/October.
There is always an uncertainty in El Nino predictions, and can go wrong or deviate. This was seen in May as the symptoms slackened.
Vagaries views..El Nino starts showing up in August/September ( Slight delay over previous estimate due to poor May progress), and full fledged by November/December. 



More Records : Dipayal (Nepal) records all time high on 8th June: 45.2c
Mumbai Scruz records the hottest night ever..Minimum 30.2c !

Sunday evening observations: 
Arabian Sea Low remains weak around 1002 mb...and slight shift to North at 13N and 69.5E...three points to note:
1. If it strengthens to 999 mb or below, and stationed at 65E or Eastwards, then it will "suck up" the monsoon readiness clouds, and we wait till the off shore trough organises again.
2. Anyway, we expect a Westerly track...but, If it crosses beyond westwards of 65E, then off shore trough remains intact...wait and watch next 12 hrs...trying for mid night update again..
3. East west shear interfering presently.

Satna : New record of all time high for Satna: 48.0c on 6th June 2014..

Posted Saturday Night:

The expected Low has formed in the Arabian Sea. Situated off the Kerala coast near the Lakshdweep Islands, it was last located at 12N and 70E..I am showing the wind image here so that readers may understand how the centre is located and identified. 

The Low, likely to intensify to some extent, and move along the coast, and by Monday could be located West off Goa. But the major heavy rain  will soon start concentrating  in the West and SW quadrant.

System likely to get embedded in the upper trough along the 13N line, (due to Shear..see image) and may move Westwards, away from the Indian coast. System may deepen to some extent, and could even dissipate in the seas itself before hitting any coast.

In this scenario, I do not see effect on Pakistan from this system. 

SWM advances into Kerala on Friday...
The SWM moves ahead from Monday 9th onwards. Once the Low/depression moves West, we see the West Coast trough gaining strength.
Other Forecasts for the weekend given below...Friday Afternoon Post...

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Posted Friday afternoon:

South West Monsoon advancing into Kerala on Friday 6th June. The Monsoon move into Coastal and S.I. Karnataka and Southern TN by Sunday, 8th June.
Mumbai Monsoon around 14th...Saurashtra and Bharuch get their showers after 15th June..

Low pressure likely to form off the Kerala coast on 7th June. It can intensify first to a weel marked low and then depression. As a depression, it can be positioned due West off Goa by the 9th/10th of June. There is a trough in the 700 hpa level along the 19N line. System could get embedded in the trough. If so, then a) it can strengthen and move due West. b) If the rough gets weak by the 9th/10th, then the system will also weaken and move NW and dissipate.
Some models show a) and some b) as a possibility.

Delhi NCR: Hot, with night temperatures rising. heat waves will prevail all over Northern India for the next 10 days. As no WD is in store, few places in Balochistan and Sindh may cross 50-51c, and places in Rajasthan may touch 49c. Few all time records expected to be broken. Night temperatures in Delhi and parts of Rajasthan and North MP expected to be 34/35c soon. Monsoon current will star advancing from Bihar/And Eastern MP towards Delhi after the 20th. Monsoon over Delhi after 26th June.

Mumbai: Its getting unbearable, high humidity and a 3c range between day and night ! Let this weekend pass with a few drizzles making it worst. But come Monday 9th June, or latest Tuesday 10th, Mumbai should see the welcome showers of heavier intensity. Outer townships will be lashed by thunder storms also.

Pune: Continuing with the sure chances of a thunder shower in around Pune vicinity for the next 4/5 days. Regions around Pune can get thunder showers this weekend and into next week till the arrival of the Monsoon, around 14th June.

Aurangabad: Saturday 7th June and Sunday 8th June will be hot, with warm nights in the 26/27c range. And the clouds will make it more stuffy. Monday 9th,  Aurangabad could get a thunder shower, which will be enough to cool the night, and bring relief. Tuesday 10th, will see a more widespread and heavy storm in Aurangabad, maybe around 30 mms, and ,cooling down the city to around 22c. Regular Monsoon though is not expected before the 15th of June, though pre monsoon thunder showers next week will bring the required relief from the current 41/42c temperatures.

Bangalore: As the Monsoon advances into Kerala, Bangalore will see wet spell continuing next 2 days. But, as the Low pressure moves, cloudy weather and typical monsoon days after 9th June will mean less quantum and more pleasant days, with average rain amounts.

Chennai: As the South West Monsoon tracks towards the Karnataka coast, a thunder shower likely for Chennai on Sunday, 8th June. Mon 9th /Tuesday 10th /Wednesday 11th will be stuffy and cloudy, with passing showers in parts of Chennai.

Kolkata: After the pleasant cooling spell last week, the city has seen the days around 35/36c. But where is the Monsoon ? The Eastern and NE sector are still searching for the elusive clouds. Though the SWM can move into the NE States by this weekend, we dont see the Bengal area getting covered till 12th. Kolkata may be lucky to get the odd shower on Monday as the SWM current creeps in the NE.


Feeling Hot !
Hot Nights...Minimum Temps Saturday morning: Kota and Noida 34.1c and Pusa 33.6c...Chandrapur 33.5c...Palm 32.8c...Meerut 31c...Gwalior 30.6c..
And You think Mumbai is hot ?? :-)  To be more convinced, see Rohit's analysis of last 3 year's Comparison of Mumbai Summers..on Mumbai Page..

Friday 6th June..Highest was Larkana at 51.0c in Pakistan...
Hottest in India on Friday was Churu (Raj) at 48.6c.....Other Hot Spots..Ganganagar & Satna-48.0c, Damoh-47.7c, Bikaner, Nowgong and Banda-47.6c, Brahmapuri-47.5c, Barmer-47.4c, Wardha and Delhi(Palam)-47.2c, Chandrapur-47.1c. 

Thursday 5th June... temps : Highest in India was Bikaner at 49c...Hottest in India this year...

Pakistan saw 50.0c at Larkana and 49.0 at Jacobabad...

Posted Thursday Night:

The South West Monsoon is persisting over the Southern Kerala region since 4th June.
It is likely to cover entire Kerala by Friday evening.

A low likely to form off the Kerala coast over the Laskshdweep Islands region around 8th June. The low can intensify and move N/NW along the west coast of India coming off the Goa coast by the 10th/11th of June. 
This would pull up the SWM upto the Goa region by the 12th of June. The gradient will be sufficient by then, as the core would be around 992 mb, and the heat wave between 6th and 10th June will be very beneficial.
Even ( avid vagaries readers will recall, the MJO is getting strong, and will remain so till at least 15th.

The big question ....???? Where will the system track ? will it deepen ?
The system will track till 11th along the coast, using the west coast off shore trough ( which will form in a day or two), and upto 15N...Then, we observe the core pressure of the seasonal trough...whether it has moved West or remains over the Rajasthan/Sindh region. Moving West will make the system track NW... but, it is doubtful whether it can reach any coast. TODAY, the wind shear is strong, and may not allow the system to track beyond 20N line ...but we watch and monitor.

Mumbai sees the odd shower for a few more days, and we see the rains increasing after 10th on gradual basis, getting daily thunder showers after 10th. 
We see the Monsoon advancing to Mumbai on the 15th,  (lot depends on the developments mentioned above).
Mumbai Scruz recorded the highest ever minimum temperature again for the 2nd night this year. The minimum was 29.6c on Thursday morning. Just 2 days ago it broke the record...see details here

HEATWAVE INTENSIFIES IN NORTH INDIA & PAKISTAN...From Arpit

Heatwave in parts of North India & Pakistan intensified further today with many places recording above 45c maximum temperature. 'DHOLPUR' in Rajasthan recorded the highest temperature in the plains of the country today at 48.2c. 

Other places which are above 45c in India are:

BIKANER: 47.4c

CHURU: 47.3c

ALLAHABAD: 47.2c

SRIGANGANAGAR: 47.0c

KOTA: 46.8c

NEW DELHI(PALAM): 46.6c

BANDA: 46.6c

AGRA: 46.5c

JAISALMER: 46.4c

JAIPUR: 46.3c

SAWAI MADHOPUR: 46.3c

JHANSI: 46.0c

GWALIOR: 46.0c

HISAR: 46.0c

AMRITSAR: 45.6c

GUNA: 45.6c

JODHPUR: 45.5c

SULTANPUR: 45.5c

BARMER: 45.4c

SATNA: 45.3c

AKOLA: 45.2c

KANPUR: 45.2c

BAREILLY: 45.0c

LUCKNOW:45.0c

VARANASI: 45.0c

ALIGARH: 45.0c

FURSATGANJ: 45.0c

Neighbouring Pakistan is also tightly gripped in a strong heatwave with one or two places even touching the 50c mark. Sindh region is most affected by this heatwave where many places have recorded above 45c temperature.

Here are the few places which are above 45c in Pakistan(according to PMD):

LARKANA: 50.0c

JACOBABAD: 49.0c

BHAKKAR: 48.0c

NOORPUR THAL: 48.0c

TURBAT: 48.0c

SUKKUR: 48.0c

MOENJODARO: 48.0c

SIBBI: 47.8c

ROHRI: 47.5c

BAHAWALNAGAR: 47.0c

NAWABSHAH: 47.0c

HYDERABAD: 47.0c

PAD IDAN: 46.5c

BAHAWALPUR: 46.0c

LAHORE: 46.0c

DERA ISMAIL KHAN: 45.5c

KHANPUR: 45.5c

MULTAN: 45.1c

CHHOR: 45.0c

FAISALABAD: 45.0c

Vagaries' Forecast in Gujarat Newspaper...Current Weather Page

1st 100 mm of the season in Maharashtra in Pradeeps's Page.

Brief Update on SWM late tonite..

Light drizzles reported from Malabar Hill and Gigaum parts of S.Mumbai Thursday Night (9 pm IST)...

Monsoon Limit as shown..

Monsoon rains gain strength in Kerala from 10th June..Idukki region can get heavy rains from 10th June.

Low likely to form in Arabian Sea around 10th June...as of indications today, Low will strengthen and move initially along coast till 15N....More as situation develops.

Mumbai will keep up with light drizzles, from stray clouds for 2 more days, but thunder showers possible in outer townships.

Posted Tuesday Night:

1. The gradient required is not enough (today) to get a speedy pull up the coast for the SWM..Thar Core pressure 998, South Arabian Sea off coast pressure 1004 mb.
2. Weak off shore trough runs from Karnataka to Kerala today.
3. Winds up to 850 level fairly ok, but would signify a weak Monsoon current.

SWM advances into South Kerala today, 3rd June as a weak current...

Heat Wave likely in Vidharbh and adjoining MP on Wednesday
Light rain in Mahalaxmi and at Vagaries now....steady drizzle...Posted Tuesday 8.10 pm IST

Posted Monday 2nd June,  Night....
Sri Lanka:
SW Monsoon has advanced into Central And Southern Sri Lanka. 

Naboda received the highest rainfall today of 200 mms.Galle and Ratmalana got 66 mms, Ratnpurana 40 mms and Colombo 22 mms. Thunder storms were reported in the hills.

Galle and Matara regions will experience in excess of 100 mms next 24 hrs and squally winds al along the West coast as the SWM advances into rest of Sri Lanka next 24 hrs. 70-80 kmph winds likely  from Mannar to Pottuvil and Hambantota.

Monsoon likely to advance into Kerala on 4th June as a weak current.
This weak current continues with Monsoon advance , but change possible after 7th June. The MJO shows signs of strengthening after 5th June, briefly for around 10 days. SWM must take advantage of that phase.

Parts of Mumbai and outer townships experainced very light drizzles on Monday evening.
Heavy rains and thunderstorm in Bangalore expected on Tuesday...around 30 mms possible...
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Posted Sunday 1st June, Night:

Back to back WDs spoilt the "party" with the seasonal Low core pressure rising to 1000 mb, way above the required pressure for this date. A trough running along the Northern plains, almost similar to a seasonal "break Monsoon" trough has persisted for an extra day, and threatens to linger on for a day or two more.
Reduction in temperatures in the North was also a dampener !

Even as the predicted west coast trough off the Kerala coast appeared, and the Arabian sea High ridge has "flattened", bringing in Westerly winds along the coast. 
Still two factors may delay the SWM onset:

1. The persisting trough in the north acts as a "barrier" and prevents the further Northerly movement of the actual Monsoon axis. 

The WD trough dipping at 200 mb, has disturbed the seasonal Easterly "setter". The Easterly flow which was at 10N, till 30th May, is suddenly disturbed beyond recognition, and may take 2 days to get re-organised.

2. The core pressure at the seasonal trough is a miserable 1000 mb, and the pressure off the Kerala coast is 1006mb. Required gradient is 996 mb in the Thar desert and 1008 mb off the Kerala coast.

Positive parameter is that the MJO tends to get strong from 4th June...lasting briefly till 14th June. If, the other parameters fall in line, the advantage of this "major" factor could still be taken, and SWM can advance into Sri Lanka and Kerala by 4th June. 
Still. i feel it will be a weak current initially. May not show immediate signs of advancing beyond Karnataka coast till 10th June...and should advance into Konkan till the MJO is strong !
Mumbai and Outer Townships pre monsoon showers possible around 4th June..

I could have delayed the SWM advance 2 days back. But was hopeful for a timely arrival...and was hoping for the north trough in the UP plains to vanish, we had hopes for SWM by 2nd in Kerala. Even the off shore trough off Kerala is ready, but of course the seasonal low core is at 1000 mb, mainly because of the Northern trough.
Lack of proper gradient has delayed the cloud formation in the Arabian Sea.
Also was hoping for the difference in the SST off the West coast and Somali coast to be at least 10c....


Massive Rains in Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu updated in Pradeep's Page. 1st rains in Maharashtra is also included.

Update on SWM Progress Late tonite