First 70 SWM Toppers for the entire Season...2013...Winner Patgaon !...See Pradeep's Page for complete List...

First 70 SWM Toppers for the entire Season...2013...Winner  Patgaon !...See Pradeep's Page for complete List...

After 120 days of gruelling battle, the winner is Patgaon from
Maharashtra. it manages to beat Hulikal from Karnataka by just 100 mm.
The notable records in this season are Patgaon has got 5881 mm
rainfall in July alone. A data which has to be noted in your record
books. Similarly, Amgaon in Karnataka has got 5097 mm in July. 

But it was a bad year for both Cherrapunji and Mawsynaram. They finished very
lowly in the toppers list this SWM.

Vagaries withdrew the SWM up to Maharashtra on the18th (Map put up on Thursday), and IMD has also withdrawn on similar lines on the 19th of October.

Now, actually, the Monsoon axis has slid down South fast. 
A low has formed off TN coast, at 11N and 85E. Embedded in the East coast trough. This is expected to become well marked on Sunday and track towards North TN coast, and strike by Tuesday, 22nd or 23rd.
With an UAC off the South Karnataka coast, the axis now joins the 2 systems.

The Monsoon axis runs from Goa SE to Chennai and into the SE Bay.
Seeing the East winds along the axis, I would expect the SWM to withdraw from the country on Monday, and with the change of winds, simultanious commencement of NEM on 21st October. Vagaries first announcement ( in NEM Watch -2 dt. 3rd October) of NEM date of 20th October proves correct.
 .
Chennai, as forecasted yesterday, will get a thunderstorm on Sunday Night, heralding the NEM. Rains expected to continue next couple of days.

Heavy thunderstorm expected in Kolkata on Sunday night/Monday. Day will be humid at 32c.

A low is expected to form off the South Karnatak coast in the Arabian Sea around the 23rd/24th of October. Expected to track N/NW, and become well marked...and move along the Goa/Mah. coastline...Mumbai can expect some showers on Friday 25th and Saturday 26th October. Showers also expected in Goa. 
This Low may turn out to be counter productive for the NEM till the low exists. But, in any case, we are expecting the NEM to under perform till October end.....further up date for Mumbai and NEM on Monday, 21st.

And , this is the result of the SWM rushing South, heat wise...
On Saturday 19th October: 
Hottest in Asia: Makkah  41.2c
Hottest in Pakistan: Turbat  41c, Karachi 37.0c
Hottest in India : Bhuj 37.0c, Mumbai 36.5c.

Posted on Friday @ 10 pm IST:

With the SWM withdrawan, Mumbai turns hot and dry on Friday . The Maximum temperature at Scruz was 35.3c, and the minimum humidity was at 33%..Colaba too was drier, but at 60%. Pune was drier at 26%.

Parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan were hot today, and regions covered were as The "Pink Shaded" regions shown in the Vagaries' Map. Bikaner was 38.3c, Bhuj saw 36.6c, Surat  36.4c, Veraval  36.1c, Ahemdabad  36.0c, Rajkot 36.0c and Akola 36.1c.

Across the border, in Pakistan, Friday was hotter with Turabt being the hottest at 41c. Sibbi saw 39c, Nawabshah and Hyderbad were 38c and Karachi was 36c.

Meanwhile, the UAC shown in the Vagaries'map off TN coast will form on Saturday. 

Chennai will see an increase in precipitation from Sunday night.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted on Friday @ 1 pm IST: The East West trough mentioned in the 16th Oct 10.30 pm post is active today...in Eastern Lanka


UAC forming in Off Shore trough off TN on Sunday ..

Posted on 17th Thursday @ 11 pm IST:

A anti-cyclone in the upper atmosphere sits firmly over Central India.

Getting a 1 day extension, as per Vagaries, the SWM will withdraw from North Konkan (including Mumbai), North Maharashtra, Vidharbha, Rest of MP and UP, and Chattisgarh on Friday 18th. 
IMD norms would require 3 days of no rain, but we see the parameters get suited for withdrawal, and hence would announce the withdrawal. 

An UAC has formed off the Sri Lanka and South TN coast, embedded in the East West trough along the line. 

Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Thunder showers will be active in interior Kerala and adjoining TN districts.

Chennai could see some Thunder showers in some parts on Friday and Saturday. Heavy thunder showers in Chennai on Sunday night...and maintain the NEM date at 22nd October

Mumbai Gets warm to 35c as SWM withdraws. Outer townships see a dip in night temperatures from Saturday. 
Pune will see cooler nights at 17c on the weekend.


Delhi will remain between 33c and 20c with hazy sunshine.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted on 16th October @ 10.30 pm
See International Page for Details on Typhoon Wipha, Heavy snow in Austria and Switzerland.

North:
Post SWM, we see the night temperatures falling in the Northern plains and Delhi. In the plains, Hissar and Lucknow were 18c, while the lowse in the plains was at Fatehgarh 17.7c.  New Delhi saw a low of 20c, while nearby Hindon fell to 19.6c.


But the hills are still awaiting a real cold WD. The hills are very much warmer than usual, and there has been no significant snowfall even in the upper reaches of Kashmir, HP or Uttarakhand. We have seen snowfall in the upper reaches as early as end August !

Keylong in HP recorded a minimum of 10c..that is 8c above normal. Kalpa was 6c , 4c above normal and Manali was 8c, 2c above.

Srinagar saw a low of 9c, which is 3c more than normal, and Gulmarg was 5c, above normal by 2c and Pahalgam was 4c, above normal by 2c.

The IMD is set withdraw the SWM from Delhi on 17th October. SWM is likely to withdraw from Delhi-NCR on 17th October as per IMD norms. This is going to be the longest monsoon season ever in the history of Delhi-NCR with a total of 123 days against a normal of 85 days. 17th October will be the most delayed withdrawal of monsoon ever. Previous last withdrawal date was 13 Oct 1956 and 1959. The Longest duration was in 1956, when it lasted for 111 days.

South:
The mighty "Phailin" has now fizzled out into a meek UAC over Bihar. A trough runs South from this UAC, and off the East coast till AP.

Another East-West trough has formed East off Sri Lanka. It is expected to strengthen in the next few days, but rainfall will be restricted to Sri Lanka. 

Interior TN will continue to get thunder showers. While,as explained in NEM Watch 3, the Chennai region will need to wait till 22nd for the NEM. 
We are depending on the off shore trough to strengthen and herald in the NEM. The expected UAC should form in the East Bay along the 15N line by Thursday.

Mumbai:
As expected, outer townships of Mumbai got some thunder showers on Wednesday evening. 

Now, the SWM can be expected to withdraw from the Mumbai region from Thursday. Nights expected to drop 2c from Thursday night in Mumbai suburbs and outer townships. 
Pune got some showers on Tuesday, and should reach 17c by weekend.

Animation of Super Cyclone "Phailin"...Sent and compiled by Santosh Subramanian...see here

Posted on Tuesday 15th: SWM Withdrawal Map (as per Vagaries)  showing regions where SWM has withdrawn: 

Posted Monday, 14th Night:
Super Cyclone "Phailin" now hangs around Bihar/Nepal border as a well marked low pressure area.Expected to fizzle out over Eastern Nepal.

All attention towards the Monsoon axis now....

The axis is expected to slid Southwards fast, and will pull the SWM southwards with it.
The SWM is expected to withdraw from West MP, Gujarat  and West Nepal by Tuesday 15th and in North Konkan ( including Mumbai), North Maharashtra, Rest of MP and Chattisgarh from Thursday 17th .
Shall put up withdrawal map on Tuesday Night and another on Wednesday showing the 2 days withdrawal..

Mumbai: 
SWM expected to withdraw from Mumbai region from Thursday 17th. 
The off shore trough currently in a east-west position off Mumbai, weakens considerably in next 2 days, and almost becomes non effective after Wednesday.
As the axis shifts Southwards, We will see Easterlies taking over Mumbai in the day...meaning high day temperatures.

Tuesday 15th : Partly cloudy, with a shower possible in some parts of city..Winds turn NE on Tuesday, hearlding a rise in day temperature to 33/34c.
Wednesday 16th/Thursday 17th:  SWM Withdraws from Thursday: 
A thunder shower may be possible in outer townships on Wednesday. As the SWM withdraws, we see east winds taking over, and a fall in humidity levels are seen. Warm and sunny, the day will rise to 36c by Thursday.Night temperatures drop by a couple of degrees in Suburbs and outer townships.

Pune may get a shower in some parts on Tuesday. SWM withdraws from Thursday 17th, and we see the nights getting distinctly cooler, with the low reaching 17c by the weekend.

NEM Watch -3
The current ENSO trend, which is neutral and the MJO, which shows  a weak phase till the 21st, and a "neutral phase from the 22nd till end of October. 

A rapid movement of the ITCZ towards the South, we see Easterlies picking up along the TN coast from Wednesday.
NE winds start their domination from Tuesday 15th.

However, it can be assumed, seeing the November MJO and Easterly wave flow, with a couple of strong systems from the Bay, the NEM will be near normal in Chennai (Normal = 822 mms .Expected 800 mms). 
Overall we see the NEM can be above normal by 10% in TN (All TN average = 440 mms. Expected 500 mms) and about 10% above Normal in Vellore (Normal 414 mms. Expected 450 mms).
Bangalore may get its normal share of 225 mms for the season.

From the current trends, it seems the NEM will set in around the 22nd of October.We can assume the NEM to remain weak to moderate till the end of October. We see the Monsoon strengthening only in November.

On Wednesday, a low form in the Southern parts of the Bay, around the 10N/12N line.
The Low moves westwards, and gets embedded in an Easterly trough East off Sri Lanka along the 10/11N line. But due to lack of favourable parameters, it is apparent the easterly wave lacks strength, and may precipitate only around Sri Lanka region (East coast)...

Chennai will get brisk East winds from Wednesday as a result.
As a line of wind discontinuity forms in the Southern Peninsula Interiors, we get thunder showers in interior TN and Karnataka from Tuesday thru the week. But, Thunder Showers in Chennai city on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Bangalore gets good thunder showers from Tuesday thru this week, due to the LWD.

 Blog update tonite on Mumbai outlook and NEM...by 10.30 pm IST..

Super Cyclone Phailin was at it. Aiming at the East Coast and hurtling towards it at 210 kmph..enough to cause major destruction and loss of lives.
Excellent preparedness by authorities and timely warnings from IMD saved major damage and saved loss of lives...IMD did a very good job in accurate predictions and tracking estimates..Kudos !

Neeraj gives some details from Nepal in "comments"....Raining and overcast.
Kathmandu airport received 6 mms rainfall till 8 pm and the day's high was 19.8c. Current temperature at 5 pm 17.0c.
Sunday, as the system mived North into Jharkhand and Bihar, Jamshedpur got 99 mms and Ranchi 43 mms till 5.30 pm (9 hrs).

As on 8.30 am IST Sunday:  Banki ARG 381 mms, Balimundali 305 mms, Ranpur 296 mms, Chaibasa 199 mms.
Bhubaneshwar has recieved 169 mms, Keonjhargarh 150 mms,  Chandbali 123 mms,Puri 119 mms,  Balasore 110 mms, Paradip 76 mms and Sambhalpur 30 mms.
More from Arpit: G.UDAYAGIRI-AGRO- 243 mm 
KHURDAH- 169 mm ,SHYAMAKHUNTA-AGRO- 167 mm 

MAHISAPAT- 145 mm, KENDRAPARA- 97 mm

Rain in Odisha diagram from Rohit:

Posted on Sunday Morning at 8.30 am IST

As Cyclone "Phailin" moves Northwards, 
Heavy rainfall Warnings for Bihar, Sikkim, North W.Bengal and Central and Eastern Nepal.
Very heavy rains in these regions may precipitate around 100-200 mms in 24 hrs, causing local flooding of regional rivers in Jharkhand and Bihar.

Posted @ 8.40 pm IST Saturday

"Phailin" located at 19N and 85E, has stalled in this position since 5 pm IST to 7.30 pm IST. In that period, it has weakened considerably, and at 8 pm IST, is located at 19N and 86E, just 20 kms South of Gopalpur. Core pressure is 938 mb and winds at 215 kmph. Still just within the official Cat 4 stage.

Presuming the resumed rate of 20 kmph tracking, it would have crossed the coast between 8.30 pm IST and 9 pm IST pm IST.
It is very very difficult to be precise and absolutely accurate for landfall without a proper defined centre. 

In effect, it could be said to have now crossed into land South of Gopalpur between 8.30 pm IST and 9.00pm IST Saturday !!. 

Link of Landfall sent by Akshay Deoras

vagaries would like to reiterate, that this blog had first mentioned the formation of this storm, and predicted its crossing North AP/Odisha coast as early as 3 rd October. This was mentioned in the NEM Watch -2, published on the Current weather page.
susequently, since 8th October, as soon as it attained strength, it can be seen on blog articles that vagaries was consistent in warning named districts in AP and Odisha like Srikakulam, Vizag and Ganjam, Bhubaneshwar and Gajapat.A map of possible path was put up on 9th.
Readers have inquired directly and thru several SMS messages and have taken this warning, and sent warnings and alerted their friends in Odisha and AP..Feels good to have been of help  :-)

Super Cyclone "Phailin" to make Landfall between 6 pm and 6.30 pm IST..now located about 25 kms Southof Ganjam (approximate on Sat imagery)..as on 5.30 pm..
Currently at 931 mb and 230 kmph winds 
Image below is of 5 pm IST...

Super Cyclone "Phailin" Update @ 1.30 pm IST

Rains overnight till Saturday Morning: Gopalpur 56 mms, Cuttack 33 mms, Bhubaneshwar 60 mms, 

Located at 18.2N and 85.5E, it has maintained same strength at 920 mb and 260 kmph. 
Now, approximately 110 kms from Land , it can cross the coast ( Just South of Gopalpur) at around 7 pm IST, seeing the current speed of tracking. Before hitting land, clouds will get concised, and system will weaken rapidly on Land. 
The movement after landfall will be almost Northwards. 

This is due to the active WD now in the North. Last 24 hrs ended Saturday morning, there was good rainfall in Punjab  with Amritsar getting 67 mms, And in HP Dharamsala got 56 mms, Manali 14 mms, Delhi SJung got 39 mms, Palam 22 mms and in West UP, heavy rainfall in Hindon of 54 mms, and Meerut getting 13 mms..Jammu got 9 mms. Many places in the region recorded upto 10 mms of rain.

Next Update at 5.30 pm IST
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Super Cyclone "Phailin" to strike North AP/Odisha Coast on Saturday:  (Update @ 10.30 am IST):  

"Phailin" at 918 mb and winds at 260 kph, is Categorised at 5. 

The eye is stable no doubt, but very strong convection in the eye walls are again producing violent thunder storms around the eye, and has formed a broken ring around it. 
If, (doubtful), a second eye replacement takes place, the system will weaken 10 notches by landfall.
If not, it will remain at current strength, and strike North AP/Odisha coast at 920 mb and 260 kmph wind force.That is itself devastating !

Wind shear in the SW and South quadrant has increased to 40 kts, so translating to more vigorous thunder storms in that quadrant.(See IR BD Image).

Next Update @ 1.30 pm IST

Latest Update on Cyclone at 10.30 am IST

Posted on Friday @ 11.40 pm IST:

Super Cyclone "Phailin" Core Pressure drops further to  915 mb with core winds at 270 kmph !!
Located at 16.8N and 87E.....

Expected intensification which spurted after recycling of eye, would "stabilise" now onwards. This is also justified by the fact that the difference between cloud tops in the eye  (-21c) and outer clouds (-80c) has narrowed from the previous 80c difference. 

The rainfall rate map shows the coastal regions have started receiving rains at at least over 25 mms/hour. 

Expected to reach the Odisha coast by Saturday afternoon/evening. On reaching land, the cyclone will be around current strength. 
The likely strike area is likely to be near Gopalpur . Gopalpur, Bhubaneshwar and Cuttack are in the heavy rainfall and winds zone. Besides this, Srikakulam district should be alerted for heavy rans and winds.
Rainfall will be extremely heavy in the strike regions, where the precipitation may be around 250-300 mms in the first 24 hrs.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted on Friday @ 8.30 pm IST:

Super Cyclone "Phailin":...Its Cat 5 !!

As mentioned, "Phailin" original eye was absorbed by the outer ring, and subsequently we saw a decrease in intensity from 930 mb earlier to 935mb. Winds also reduced marginally during this time.
However, the replacement cycle is now almost completed, and a new eye is consolidating itself.
This would encourage the re-intensification of Phailin in the next 12 hrs. Very rapid intensification has resumed, and current core pressure is estimated at 920 mb...and winds at 260 kmph...satellite image visuals and calculations depict a slightly stronger system.
Location: 16.7N and 87.3E...

Tracking NW, and expected to centre on AP/Odisha coast with a greater intensity. Centre will cross land around Saturday evening, BUT, storms and winds will commence by morning !

Tracking NW, "Phailin" will move towards the AP/Odisha border. Srikakulam, Vizianagram and Vizag District (AP) should be seriously alerted. And Gajapati and Ganjam Districts of Orissa should be alerted...and all regions along North AP and Odisha coast. Damage will be maximum.
Please consult and adhere to Local authorities warnings !
Note, the cyclone will weaken very rapidly on crossing land, and move in a N/NW

I personally feel that this storm has been underestimated by IMD...

Quoting from ToI: 
"The weather office may be underestimating the severity of a cyclone which is hurtling towards the east coast, a meteorologist warned on Friday."
Cyclone Phailin is forecast to hit the coast between Kalingapatnam in Andhra Pradesh and Paradip in Odisha late on Saturday with a maximum wind speed of 220kmph (135mph), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its latest bulletin.

And this: "Phailin is already worse than what the IMD is forecasting. A recent satellite estimate put Phailin's current intensity on par with 2005's Hurricane Katrina in the United States," said Eric Holthaus, meteorologist for Quartz, a US-based online magazine which covers global economy-related issues.

"Everything I know as a meteorologist tells me this is the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane — among the strongest on earth in 2013. That would mean Phailin could be the strongest cyclone ever measured in the Indian Ocean."...??