Vagaries of the Weather ©
Monsoon Watch – 3
📅 3rd May 2026
🌧️ OVERALL STATUS
🟡 SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE / NEAR NORMAL
Monsoon parameters progressing, but Bay activity and pressure gradient still insufficient.
📊 PARAMETER ANALYSIS
1. CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS
Active in South Arabian Sea branch
⚠️ Bay branch weak
🔴 INDICATOR: -VE
2. SEASONAL LOW (THAR CORE HEAT)
Core pressure ~1000 mb
➡️ Needs ~994 mb in June
🟩 INDICATOR: NORMAL
3. ENSO STATUS
- ENSO Neutral currently
- Neutral till June (~80%)
- El Niño likely May–July onward (~61%)
📉 RONI: -0.7{ El Niño: Characterized by a positive RONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.}
🟩 INDICATOR: NEUTRAL → EL NIÑO BY AUGUST
4. BAY OF BENGAL ACTIVITY
No Low / Depression yet
✔️ SST favorable
❌ No trigger
🔴 INDICATOR: -VE
5. ITCZ / LWD
Near Equator
LWD: Chattisgarh-Telangana-T.N.
6. JET STREAMS (200 hPa)
Weak SE winds south of 8°N
🟩 INDICATOR: NORMAL
📋 PARAMETER SUMMARY
| PARAMETER | STATUS |
|---|---|
| Cross Equatorial Winds | 🔴 -VE |
| Seasonal Low | 🟩 NORMAL |
| ENSO | 🟩 NEUTRAL |
| Bay Activity | 🔴 -VE |
| ITCZ / LWD | 🟩 NORMAL |
| Jet Streams | 🟩 NORMAL |
OVERALL | 🟡 SLIGHT -VE / NORMAL |
🗓️ TENTATIVE MONSOON ONSET
South Andamans → 🔴 19 MAY
Andaman Islands → 🔴 22 MAY
Maldives → 🔴 29–30 MAY
Sri Lanka → 🔴 30 MAY – 1 JUNE
Kerala / NE India → 🔴 3–5 JUNE
Coastal Karnataka → 🔴 7 JUNE
Goa → 🔴 8–9 JUNE
Mumbai & West Bengal → 🔴 12–14 JUNE
🌦️ VAGARIES INSIGHT
- Arabian branch strengthening
- Bay remains critical missing trigger
- Seasonal Low yet to deepen
- ENSO turning factor later
🔴 NOTE
🔴 Observation-based forecast. Not for commercial use.
🔴 Conditions may change rapidly and are monitored continuously.
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