Sunday, July 02, 2023

Monsoon outlook for upcoming week: 2nd to 6th July - 

Mumbai region: No alert Immediately. Normal Monsoon Rains.
Rain frequency reduces for next 2 days, on and off showers likely, some heavy.  Rain frequency may start increasing from 4th July onwards.                     Water Position 👉

Till 4th July: Most rainfall will be over the coast and interior Konkan, less for Ghats. 

Pune: Rain intensity reduces, light showers with some sunny intervals likely.

Goa: Heavy showers. Rains amounting to 50-90 mms expected next 4 days.

Interior Maharashtra: With westerly wind speed reducing over most of Maharashtra from 3rd to 5th July, and due to effect of the Bay circulation, thunderstorms are likely for Vidarbha and parts of Marathwada during 3rd to 5th July. Rains can be moderate, and sometimes heavy, but not well distributed. 

West coast to remain active!
  • A mid-level cyclonic circulation is forming over southwestern Bay of Bengal, off south Andhra Pradesh coast. 
  • This will increase westerly winds from Arabian Sea over southern west coast, and cause wind convergence around 700 hPa along north Kerala/south Karnataka coasts giving widespread heavy rain.

West coast: Heavy rainfall zone shifts south towards Kerala, Karnataka and Goa.

Rainfall increasing over Kerala from 2nd July, with moderate/heavy rain across parts of the state. 
3rd and 4th July will see heavy to very heavy rain for Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Ghats in those states. Very heavy rains expected for catchment areas of the Kaveri river basin. 

As the circulation in Bay climbs latitude, westerlies from the Arabian Sea will again align perpendicular to the west coast, and heavy rainfall is likely from coastal Karnataka to south Konkan during 5th-6th July. 

Gujarat: Rainfall reducing this week. Moderate showers can continue in Saurashtra during 2nd and 3rd July, but mainly dry weather after that. Rain may again pick up after 6th July.

Moderate rainfall to continue for parts of Bihar, east Uttar Pradesh and parts of Madhya Pradesh. 
Parts of Telangana to get moderate-heavy rain/thundershowers from 3rd to 5th July. 

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