6th June Arabian Sea and Monsoon Update
Low wind shear, very high SST of 31-32°C will favour intensification of AS-1 into a strong cyclone...may reach Extremely Severe Cyclone Intensity over next 3 days (equivalent to category 3 hurricane intensity approx)
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Credit Australian government Bureau of metereology
Issued Day 6 June 2023
The latest Climate Driver Update and Climate Model Summary are now available on our website.
El Niño ALERT activated; positive Indian Ocean Dipole also possible
The Bureau's ENSO Outlook has been shifted to El Niño ALERT, indicating a 70% chance of El Niño forming this year. This equates to roughly three times the normal chance of an El Niño forming. Central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have warmed to El Niño thresholds. All models surveyed by the Bureau are forecasting the likelihood of further warming and that these SSTs will remain above El Niño thresholds at least into the southern hemisphere spring. Some atmospheric indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have shifted towards El Niño thresholds, but wind, cloud and broad-scale pressure patterns indicate the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are yet to reinforce each other, as occurs during El Niño events. El Niño typically suppresses rainfall in eastern Australia during the winter and spring months.
ENSO Outlook
Our ENSO Outlook provides up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing.
Current status: EL NIÑO ALERT
The current status of the ENSO outlook does not change the Bureau's long-range forecast for drier and warmer conditions across much of Australia for winter. The Bureau's climate model takes into account all influences from the oceans and atmosphere when generating its long-range forecasts.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral phase, with the IOD index at +0.32 °C. All models suggest positive IOD event thresholds may be reached in winter. A positive IOD typically supresses winter and spring rainfall over much of Australia, and if it coincides with El Niño, it can exacerbate El Niño's drying effect.
A weakening Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse lies over the western hemisphere. Most models indicate the signal will become weak or indiscernible in coming days. The MJO has little influence on Australian rainfall patterns at this time of the year.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently neutral and is expected to hover around positive thresholds for the coming three weeks. During winter, a positive SAM often has a drying influence for parts of south-west and south-east Australia.
Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climates. Global SSTs were the highest on record for the months of April and May.
The Australian continent has warmed by around 1.47 °C over the period 1910–2021. There has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity, short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia. Southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10 to 20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades.
More information
Media liaison (03) 9669 4057
Technical enquiries helpdesk.climate@bom.gov.au
Next update expected by 20 June 2023
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