Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Posted Wednesday evening :

BB 8 tracks over M. P. Bringing good rainfall. 
East MP 5-16 vms, West M. P up to 12 cms and a good 4-16 cms in Vidharbh. 
From the gradient of the system, Delhi Airport recieved 26 mms and S'jung 10 mms.

However, the system was not strong enough to garner strong SW winds over North Konkan. ( BB 8 is already a well marked low). 
As a result the UAC in the west coast off shore trough fizzled out overnight and the trough ran from Goa to kerala. 
Mumbai as a result of this did not get the anticipated rains. 
Mumbai may still hold a chance of a small revival upto next 18 hrs. 


sset said...

Navi Mumbai was entirely overcast with on and off rains! Maha is in excess zone - flood situation is quite bad. Pune may race towards 1000mm by SWM end - record break! Guess now rains are required more towards eastern India, SE India.

I am waiting for NEM to set - specially desert Rayalseema (5 years no rain)

shiekhz said...

Any hope for sindh from this system sir?

Cumulus arjun said...

Bay systems are always unreliable for north Konkan and Mumbai.

Saurabh said...

North East monsoon sets in only after October 15 so its way too early to start waiting for it.
No rainfall in Rayalseema for 5 years .... fake news is not even the right word for it.
Anantpur received 50 cm in the last 1 year, which is only 5 cm below normal.
Refer to link

sset said...

I do not agree with this. Rayalseema,Anantapur,Chittor,Cudpah are driest places in India- in many occasions have received annual rains < 300mm. Late SWM withdrawl and early WDs are always hindrance for NEM onset + almost weakening NEM currents over SE India in most recent years.

Abhijit Modak said...

Mumbai on break SWM mode already like from last 10 days!

As from 5 Aug 8.30am onward till 15 Aug 8.30am today, SCZ has recorded just 49mms rainfall...

So last 10 days total is also not able to achieve half century mark !

Aks said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Saurabh said...

I shared data to make my point. Your opinions are never based on any data.
I request you to share data based on which you make these assertions.

sset said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Sarfaraj khan said...

Rajesh sir.. how will be the weather for the upcoming days in Mumbai and suburbs..when will rain revive..

Unknown said...

Note : This comment is not post specific or person specific You are one of popular blog on India's weather. There has been floods in the western maharashtra. People died property lost.. There has been no updates on your site. Are you all amature bloggers? Also there is a city called sangli. imd stopped showing daily measurements ever since it got flooded .. Right now it says rain of 300 mm. How is that happening no analysis from you..this is level of concern and interest Indian government agencies and weather sites demonstrate. Forget predictions we can't even no how much it rained . More it rains more the.delay in getting the info. And if floods... Just forget we will never pathetic

Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
sset said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
sset said...

As of now Pamban in Tamil Nadu Rameshwaram is driest place of India with just 5mm of rain since june 2019. Many places are with < 50mm of rain since june in SE India ... wait for NEM (if this happens)

RaghuN said...

While part of what you say is true, Agumbe figures from IMD bangalore is wrong(they stopped updating for 14 days during heaviest rain phase in Shimogga); KSNMDC shows close to 400cm and my IMD sources say close to 450cm this year. Talacauvery is similar; Hulikal is above 500cm and Amagaon above 600 cm. Waiting for Pradeep to update toppers of the season.
But overall, yes southern coastal Karnataka and Kerala are receiving less rains for past decade or so. Might be cyclical.. who knows.

sanjeev Gokhale said...

Sir I also agree with comments that there was no mention of sangli kolhapur floods.very surprising.
I read your blog almost daily and even plan my week according ly.i stay in Mulund East Mumbai suburb. That is the perfection of your prediction.

So felt more that your early prediction would have saved lot of loss in sangli and kolhapur. Anyway I respect you and your work and will continue to be a regular visitor. Thanks

Saurabh said...

From 1st June to end of August the total rainfall in Pamban is only around 3 cm.
This means Pamban is the the driest town during this time period in any given year.
This year is no different.
For Pamban the three driest months are June, July and August. Its hard to believe but true.
In these three months Pamban hardly gets any rainfall and no one in Pamban is surprised by the lack of rainfall at this time of the year.

Links ..... you will have to browse to the state and the city and then click on "Climatological Informaion"

Pamban gets around 70 cm from October to December. These are the rainy months in Pamban.
For Tamil Nadu the current SWM is almost as good as it can get. The deviation from average is just 4%.

At thi

sset said...

Exactly Raghu - you are correct. I don't think this is cyclic nature- major change in climate - if KAR and KER would hot have received 6 days of good rains (in-spite of causalities) imagine what would have happen - entire southern India would have faced 2016 kind of drought(which impacted entire southern India) - point is just few days of highly skewed rain and that too in few areas - is highly dangerous - fate of entire state depend on these few days - rather than continuous distribution of rain which used to happen earlier (at-least used to happen in coastal KAR, KER, malnad, Kodagu - source of divine Cauvery) - let us leave apart SE India - which depends on unreliable NEM.

Just like historic Maharashtra floods - world record rains probably will have coverage -I guess Rajesh sir will put separate blog on this - cause from technical angle,impact. Already knowledge rich vagaries has links for Mumbai 2005 floods, Gujarat 2013 floods..... In way even Tamil Nadu Chennai water crisis 5 NEM failure did not receive coverage when whole global world was talking about this.

Aks said...

I have been writing many times that info given by SSET is not based on any data and just out of his fancy thoughts. Blog owner Mr. Rajesh Desai is responsible for not putting any non-verified/fake news on this blog. People have now realized that info provided by Mr. SSET is not completely relevant to the situation. To tell him, MMR region is more than 70% deficient rainfall in Aug as on date. Heavy rainfall is required now in Mumbai & North Konkan else we are heading towards last year situation when rains subsided after July 2019 and Mumbai had faced water cuts for whole year.

Rajeshbhai, when will monsoon rains return to Mumbai & north Konkan?

Saurabh said...

Deviation from average for South India

Tamil Nadu +1%.
Kerala -1%
Coastal Karnataka +10%
NI Karnataka +37%
SI Karnataka +22%
Telangana -5%
Coastal AP -1%
Rayalseema -26%

Unknown said...

Tamil Nadu also hits almost the normal mark on SW Monsoon rains so far. So except a couple of regions across India, SW Monsoon has given bountiful rain throughout. Very good for most farmers. May the rains continue through August and September too.

Feel sorry for the perennial pessimist blogger.


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