Monday, August 19, 2019

Posted Monday 19th:

Break of monsoons is the break in the monsoonal rainfall. It typically happens in the month of August

During the Monsoon season, there are periods when the Monsoon trough (at Surface Level) shifts closer to the foothills of Himalayas, which leads to sharp decrease in rainfall over most parts of the country. ... Such a synoptic situation is known as the 'break Monsoon' period. 
At times we have a "Partial break Monsoon" , when only one end of the Monsoon trough moves close to the Himalayas.

In the current situation, the Western end of the trough has moved to the foothills of the Himalayas the BB-7 and Western Disturbance interacted recently in the Northern States. 
The Eastern end has also moved Northwards as a result of BB-9, now located over Jharkhand.

The pressure gradient shrinks (from maximum gradient) along the West Coast.

Next 3 days, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday:
Hence, heavy rains expected in Northern parts of M.P. and U.P. 
Heavy rains likely in South Interior Karnatak ,Rayalseema and  North T.N.

Subdued rains in peninsula, Central and Western India and Kokan Coast.
Rains reduce in North West India.

Next 3 days, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday:

Mumbai: Partly cloudy with sunny spells. Few showers in different parts of city...Rain 5-10 mms.
Pune: Light rains in different regions and parts of city. Days expected to get warmer, around 30c. 

Revival of meaningful rains in both the above places not before weekend.

Parts of south and Madhya Maharashtra had heavy and flooding rains in the first week of August. This has improved the overall State Monsoon situation to +32%, while Madhya Maharashtra is +70%. 
Overall All India Rainfall is now >1% Plus.

New Delhi and Surroundings: Subdued rains and Not much of rainfall. In fact heating upto 39/40c. 

This is a personal note, to just inform that there was less updating of Vagaries last few days as I was indisposed, a severe Vertigo Attack. Stable Now. Writing this as I consider all my Readers as a family. Vagarians' Family.


Abizer kachwala said...

Rajesh sir,Take care..and hope you get fit and fine very soon.We all need your forecasts and guidance in understanding the dynamics of The weather.

Unknown said...

Rajesh, please take care of your health. Having had vertigo for many years now, I know how difficult it can be. Have to just grit and bear it out at most times. While we miss your timely forecasts sometimes, health is much more important so please do take care.


sset said...

Rajesh Sir kindly take care - Please visit neurologist, vertigo will be cured by medications.

Cumulus arjun said...

Take care Rajesh sir!

Saurabh said...

Take care and rest. Wish you a speedy recovery.

Nilesh Ladhad said...

Take care sir

Sarfaraj khan said...

Rajesh sir take care... Thank you so much for your love and support.

shiekhz said...

Get well soon sir, take ur very good care...

sanjeev Gokhale said...

Please take care sir. Get well soon. I had such attack few years back but fully recovered.
Regular pranayama helps a lot.

Aks said...

PLs take care Rajesh Sir. You have been a good guidance for us and we wish u a hail & healthy recovery.

NilaY Wankawala said...

Shocked to read about your health issue- Nice to hear you are now stable and I am sure You will be fit and Fine soon-Take very good Care of yourself -Health is wealth - with Regards - CA NILAY RAJNIKANT WANKAWALA.

Rajesh said...

Dear Vagarians, Thank you for all your good wishes and concern. With so much of positive vibrations, I am feeling good.
Treatment for vertigo is on, and already feeling fine and stable .
Regards, and all the Best to all of you.

Paresh said...

Take care, Rajesh and as others have said, you can overcome this condition. At least in case of human health, we can avoid the state of vagaries.
Health first, rest all can and must wait.

On a lighter note, whenever your forecasts come true (which is most of the times), I tell my family that 'Vagaries had already told' and they would reply, Ok, so if your 'baba' (meaning you, Rajesh) haS told then it will (happen so)! :) I've been a silent reader since many years! You and your team are doin' a fantastic job... especially when you consider that official agencies aren't as savvy (despite having everything at their disposal). Keep at it!

Vinod Desai said...

Take care rajesh sir..

Vijayanand said...

Take care sir. May god bless you with good health.

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