Friday, August 09, 2019

Posted Friday evening :

Record torrential rains lashing Nilgiri and Kerala. West Coast off shore trough strong from Goa to kerala.

BB7 moves W/Nw and over Rajasthan /Kutch. The system lived upto forecast in Chattisgarh, M. P, Saurashtra and Kutch.
Map 

GUJARAT REGION :
Chhota Udepur (dist Chhota Udepur) 34, Quant (dist Chhota Udepur) 28, Jetpur Pavi (dist Chhota Udepur) 17, Nizer (dist Tapi) 17, Naswadi (dist Chhota Udepur) 16, Dhanpur (dist Dahod) 12, Godhra (dist Panchmahal) 11, Bodeli (dist Chhota Udepur) 11, Dahod (dist Dahod) 11, Sanjeli (dist Dahod) 11, Devgadh Baria (dist Dahod) 10, Umerpada (dist Surat) 10, Limkheda (dist Dahod) 10, Jambughoda (dist Panchmahal) 10, Vijaynagar (dist Sabarkantha) 10, Dediapada (dist Narmada) 9, Fatepura (dist Dahod) 9, Sagbara (dist Narmada) 9, Subir (dist Dangs) 9, Dabhoi (dist Vadodara) 8, Rajpipala (dist Narmada) 8, Shahera (dist Panchmahal) 8, Garbada (dist Dahod) 8, Ukai (dist Surat) 8, Uchchhal (dist Tapi) 7, Vadodara (dist Vadodara) 7, Kadana (dist Mahisagar) 7, Halol (dist Panchmahal) 7, Morva Hadaf (dist Panchmahal) 7, Bharuch (dist Bharuch) 6, Garudeshwar (dist Narmada) 6, Songadh (dist Tapi) 6, Sankheda (dist Chhota Udepur) 6.

Very heavy rains expected in Kutch.

South Sindh also will get heavy rains.

Karachi will see showers on Saturday nightand heavy on Sunday. Around 45-60 mms.
But, BB7 failed to keep the forecast in Konkan and Mumbai.

Mumbai : Weekend will see occasional showers with bright 🔆 periods. Meaning passing showers amounting to 10-20 mms per day. Decreasing trend.
Decrease in rainfall in interior Maharashtra. Relief for flooded regions.

21 comments:

Cumulus arjun said...

Systems from bay are always unreliable for Konkan....even last year not much rains from bay systems. Activated off shore troughs are very good for Konkan rains!

shiekhz said...

Thanks again Rajesh sir for update

Vijayanand said...

Bangalore to mangalore road blocked in the ghats. Same story in Mysore to Mangalore roads. Stunning rains in the ghats of Kerela and South Malnad.

Unknown said...

Heaviest rain of 2019 for whole Gujarat and saurashtra too. It's covers whole Gujarat. Maximum rain for saurashtra is 500 + mm

sset said...

Lucky GUJ. Receives systems from both Bay and AS. This time GUJ has seen cyclone (vayu), UACs, troughs and now low pressure. Widespread 3 digit rains 300-400mm! Rajkot is receiving nothing less than 3 digit rains. Ahmedabad scoring. Soon GUJ may touch excess category to join with flooded MAHA!
Bangalore/Mysore has not seen even a single spell of heavy rain since june!

Saurabh said...

Top 3 states as of today
Maharashtra +35
Karnataka +20
Rajasthan +20

Saurabh said...

All India Deviation from normal is now 0, what a turn around this monsoon has seen.

Hi Rajesh
What can we expect from here on? At this point north and east India have the maximum shortfall.
Regards
Saurabh

Saurabh said...

IMD doing what it does best.
Here is their current forecast
Isolated extremely heavy falls are also very likely over ghat areas of Tamilnadu.
Coimbatore forecast for the next 4 days is
"Generally cloudy with heavy rain".

IMD did not see this rain event coming. This is bad but what is worse is that now after the event is over they will pass off what has already happened as forecast for the next few days. So they missed the rain event and now they forecast rain which is not going to happen. Apparently 2 wrongs make a right for IMD.

Abizer kachwala said...

Rajesh sir,please share your forecast for quantum of Rains in Mumbai for the remaining days ofSwM

Abhijit Banerjee said...

This year monsoon is cruelest over Gangetic West Bengal. Maximum damage is already done. Most of the paddy fields are dry & paddys are burnt.

Cumulus arjun said...

Seems like next 10 days Atleast mostly dry for Mumbai. September looks wet though, good rains expected during ganesh chaturthi and whole of September as well.

Cumulus arjun said...

Stunning comeback from Karnataka and Kerala. Karnataka now in excess and Kerala should also be in normal category Atleast.

Saurabh said...

West Bengal, Jharkhand and and then NCR++ have the largest deficit.

Sarfaraj khan said...

Thinks like warm day ahead for Mumbai... No rain in Aug as per some forecast... What about sep.. Rajesh sir ur views on that!!!

sset said...

Any hopes of early monsoon withdrawl- say 1st week of september... Last 5 years always delay- till end of october.. this impacts NEM system.

Unknown said...


This has been a fabulous SW Monsoon. Stepwise it has covered everything every part of the country barring a few regions. It is very beneficial for farmers across the country. Dams are full too so hopefully irrigation water should be good too later on. At the same time floods have been very damaging in some states and I hope normalcy is restored soon. Meanwhile let's also hope that a steady SWM goes well all the way to end September as per normal schedule.

Suresh

Vijayanand said...

KRS almost full .118 feet out of 124 feet full. Inflow at 1.8L. Kabini already full. Magical 2 weeks of rain.

Aks said...

As per IMD update, offshore trough is active from South Guj to Kerala. Still no rains in Mumbai & North Konkan? When will rains return to our city? Kerala & Karnataka have high excess now and hopefully some rains passed to North Konkan now.

sset said...

Many parts of Tamil Nadu are soaring with temperatures 40c... wait for NEM...

Majid Nasim Ahmad said...

Sir, most parts of Karachi got 200 mm+ rainfall between Friday night - Sunday night, contrary to your expectations of 45-60 mm only. Many parts of Karachi experienced urban flooding as a result.

Abizer kachwala said...

Actually Rajesh Sir forecasts amounts in a safe way in my opinion..if he says 80-100mm with possible flooding..it definitely rains above 250-300 in some places.This is my observation for Mumbai

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