Saturday, July 13, 2019

Posted Saturday 13th Evening:

The Monsoon Trough lies in the Himalayan foothills, extreme North.

Rainfall along Axis on 13th...


Axis likely to slide South from 17th July. An UAC/LP can form off the Odisha Coast around the 17th/18th of July.
Rains may spread to East M.P. and increase along Central India and West Coast with Low Pressure Track...but lets wait !

Outlook till Wednesday 17th;
Heavy rains expected in Sub Himalayan Bengal, Sikkim and NE States. Thundershowers likely in some parts of Odisha. 
Heavy rainfall also expected in H.P. and Uttarakhand.
Moderate showers in Coastal Karnatak and Kerala
Subdued spotty rains in M.P. (Jabalpur) , Gujarat, Interior Maharashtra and Telengana..

Outlook till Wednesday 17th;
Mumbai: Overall Subdued rains. A couple of showers ( Brief but intense) in some parts and with sunny periods in between. 
Some Eastern Outer Townships and Lonavala/Khandala Ghat sections can get a couple of heavy showers. Overall Less.

Delhi NCR: Hot ( about 40c) till Tuesday. Showers on Wednesday.

Kolkata: Few Moderate showers on Sunday..and Tuesday/Wednesday.

For Information as asked:
Cherrapunji total rain from 1st January till 13th July: 5904 mms, and from 1 st June  3931 mms. 
Mahableshwar correspondingly 2340 mms and 2325 mms !

7 comments:

Nilesh Ladhad said...

When will this wait ends,sir? Asking for Gujarat?

Unknown said...

When west mp will see rain,, Indore and ujjain area,, no rain from last 9 days

shiekhz said...

Gfs showing thunderstorm over karachi from 23rd July what would be the reason? Sheae zone and associated uac?or MS trough?

sset said...

Why have rains failed in lower latitudes of southern India. Even Kerala and coastal Karnataka are in deep deficits. Augume -2000mm ! Kerala -50% deficit (no rains). Cauvery catchments no rains.
Only Konkan and Goa are in excess +++ !

Aks said...

Rajesh sir, pls give your predictions for Gujarat. Post vayu, there hasnt been any significant rainfall. Ahmedabad and North Gujarat, Saurashtra has been abnormally dry.

Darshit said...

Not much rain expecting in Gujarat region in next 15 days. Very very disappointing.

Gaurav raninga said...

Is saurastra and kutch moving towards straight third year of strong deficit??? Many draught affected area of 2018 still not get total 50mm rains...!!! Is it only bad luck or we have any scientific (negative parameters) reason behind this dry spell during peak monsoon time?

Posted Monday 16th September: Anti Cyclone High at 850 hp establishing over West Rajasthan by 19th, and BB 11 steering N/NE from North M.P...