Monday, July 08, 2019

Posted Monday 8th Night:
Monsoon now yet to enter West Rajasthan, which it will in next 3 days.

The Monsoon Axis (Trough) runs through Punjab, thru low pressure (BB-3) in East U.P. and into the North Bay.
Now, this trough is expected to slide North towards the Himalayan foothills from Tuesday, creating a break Monsoon condition for the Peninsula, Central and North-West India.

Rainfall will decrease substantially in the Peninsula Regions, till South India, Gujarat, Central India and North West India from Wednesday. Very meagre precipitation in Interior Maharashtra.
West Coast belt will be active till Wednesday.

From Wednesday, rains will increase in U.P, Bihat , Uttarkhand and H.P. Major rivers of U.P. and Bihar may cause some flooding later in the week.

Delhi NCR: Some showers on Tuesday, but decreasing then from Wednesday for the next 3/4 days...Days may go up to 40c again from Thursday.

Mumbai
30-40 mms rain possible on Tuesday, with intermittent showers in the day (A Notch below a forecast of frequent showers.) Wednesday evening will see decrease and reduction in rains, with few showers only on Thursday and Friday.
Monday suburbs saw heavy showers in the pre afternoon session, with Scruz recording 122 mms fro 8.30 am -2.30 pm...No rain from 2.30 - 8.30 pm. This was due to an UAC vortex formation on the North Kokan coast...thereby pushing SW winds rising upto Vortex height and creating thundery clouds.

Pune: Active rain on Tuesday, but reducing to light showers from Wednesday thru Friday.

5 comments:

shiekhz said...

Models not picking any system in BoB till next 10 days... why??

Darshit said...

No meaningful rain for next 15 days for west cost central India and south India.

Cumulus arjun said...

Sir can you explain why south Konkan Goa is so dry?

NilaY Wankawala said...

CREDIT AUSTARLIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEREOLOGY

ssued 9 July 2019

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole likely to be dominant Australian climate influence

ENSO Outlook
Our ENSO Outlook provides
up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing.

Current status: INACTIVE

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral—neither El Niño nor La Niña. While the possibility of El Niño can't be completely ruled out for 2019, the tropical Pacific Ocean is expected to remain in an ENSO-neutral phase over the coming months, meaning the ENSO Outlook remains at INACTIVE. Model outlooks indicate a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to be the dominant climate driver for Australia's weather for much of the rest of 2019, meaning an increased likelihood of a drier than average winter–spring.

Most indicators of ENSO are neutral. Tropical Pacific sea surface and sub-surface temperatures remain slightly warmer than average, but in the neutral range. Atmospheric indicators, such as cloudiness near the Date Line and trade winds, have been close to average, while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is the only ENSO indicator that has continued to hover close to El Niño thresholds.

Climate models indicate the tropical Pacific will maintain an ENSO-neutral state through the austral winter and spring.

While the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been neutral in recent weeks, the broader Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and atmospheric patterns remain generally consistent with a positive IOD. This means the influence upon Australia is likely to remain.

Climate models forecast positive IOD conditions for the remainder of the austral winter and spring. Typically, a positive IOD brings below average winter–spring rainfall, above average temperatures, and an earlier start to the fire season for southern and central Australia.

More information

Media enquiries: (03) 9669 4057 media@bom.gov.au

Next update expected on 23 July 2019

Srivathsa said...

Massive inflows into Bhatsa dam this morning @1178 cumecs. This is the equivalent of 100 MCum per day. At this rate (just an assumption as flow will not sustain) Bhatsa will fill up in 10 days from empty. Bhatsa has now 540 MCUm left to fill up.

Posted Monday 16th September: Anti Cyclone High at 850 hp establishing over West Rajasthan by 19th, and BB 11 steering N/NE from North M.P...