Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Posted Wednesday 20th Night:

Mumbai:
Though Wednesday had frequent showers, the intensity and quantum was much less than Tuesday. Colaba received 75 mms and Scruz 61 mms in 12 hrs till Wednesday evening. (Vagaries had estimated 35-40 mms till Wednesday evening). 
With a further decrease in rains on Thursday, we may see a brighter day on Thursday with a few showers.
This could be the penultimate spell of showers for Mumbai of this Monsoon. 
I would venture out (though not an expert) to give a longer forecast for Mumbai. Mumbai may get its last and final thunder showers around 27th/28th September.

BB-12 has moved into East M.P. on Wednesday and would track West and fizzle out over West M.P. Heavy rains likely in West M.P. and adjoining East Gujarat region.

South West Monsoon withdrawing from Kutch, West Rajasthan and Punjab. Next phase rest Rajasthan and Saurashtra.

14 comments:

Ishan Vajpeyi said...

Rajesh Sir, what about Delhi-NCR? When do you expect the SWM to withdraw from there?

Cumulus Arjun said...

So, a withdrawal of monsoon from Mumbai on the cards this year unlike 2016 and 2015.

Cumulus Arjun said...

*early withdrawal

Shivkumar Mogal said...

Shirgaon (Chiplun) crossed 8000 mm mark. Recorded 8083 mm seasonal rainfall till today.

Vinod Desai said...

Why would shirgaon get such heavy rains which generally are received by places like amboli,tamhini,agumbe,kitwade which are at some height above sea level.

Konkani Don said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Konkani Don said...

Shirgaon is at the windward side of Western Ghats. It is near to my city Chiplun.
This monsoon Chiplun is very near to cross 5000mms of rain. In the last 3 days, Chiplun got 220+95+180=495 mms of rain more than its monthly average of September.

Konkani Don said...

This monsoon my city Chiplun is very near to 5000mms of rains. Chiplun got 220+95+180=495 mms of rain in the last 3 days more than monthly average of September. Shirgaon is a small village on the windward side of western ghats. Hence, it has got 8000 mms of rainfall.

ROHIT AROSKAR said...

Shirgaon is at the windward side of Kumbharli ghat in Chiplun taluka as explained by Konkani Don .What is your true name Konkani Don?

ROHIT AROSKAR said...

The ghatmatha reading (13 kms from Pofali, Shirgaon )of Kumbharli ghat is not available..It might be higher than Shirgaon

ROHIT AROSKAR said...

Ghatmatha is 6 kms straight line distance from Shirgaon

ROHIT AROSKAR said...

Mumbai example ( within 10 kms from the coastline)..

IMD SCZ around 3000 mms and VIHAR 4370 mms

VIHAR is within the vicinity of 300 mtrs high Powai Kanheri range and 7 kms straight line distance from IMD SCZ..

Last year VIHAR was 4680 mms

abizer Kachwala said...

Rajesh sir,its raining very heavily in Nagothane since morning.....your forecast went wrong....First Time I will face criticism due to you....Its non stop heavy now also..

rajesh said...

Abizer: Please dont mistake my Mumbai forecast put up on Wednesday as a forecast to cover a vast area way southwards till Pen/Nagothane. If any specific forecast is to be mentioned for your area, which you ask for many a times, I give it. Dont feel let down by the Mumbai forecast for Thursday..Mumbai Colaba down South had 22 mms in the day, and Mumbai had partly sunny weather with Scruz reading 0.4 mms only.
I normally cover outer areas and townships specifically and seperately. Mumbai Forecast and Nagothane forecast can be different.