Friday, September 29, 2017

Posted 29th Friday :

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-11)
Malé, Maldives, 25-27 September 2017

Consensus Statement on the Forecast for the 2017  October to December (OND) Season Rainfall and Temperatures over South Asia

Summary
Below normal rainfall is most likely during the 2017 OND Season over some parts of SE Peninsular India, north Sri Lanka and some northeastern areas of the region. Above normal is most likely over southeastern part of the region and along the coastal areas adjacent to the north Bay of Bengal. Over remaining areas of the region including northwest and central areas that generally receive
very little rain during the season, rainfall is most likely to be Normal.
Normal to slightly above normal temperatures are likely during the 2017 OND Season over most parts of the region.
Currently cool neutral ENSO conditions prevail in the Pacific Ocean and these conditions are likely to continue and turn to border line/ weak La Nina conditions in the early next year. It is also recognized that during the 2017 OND season, in the absence of SST forcings from Pacific and Indian oceans, strong
intra seasonal features will have larger influence on the climate variability over
the region leading to increased uncertainty in predictions of seasonally averaged rainfall and temperature patterns.
The consensus forecast outlook presented here has been developed
through an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models from around the world.
For more information and further updates on the northeast monsoon
outlook on national scale, the respective National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services (NMHSs) may be consulted.
A separate consensus statement for the winter season (December 2017 to
February 2018) will be issued in November 2017.

Full Statement here:

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8 comments:

sset said...

Does this mean drought for SE India (TN, south AP[Rayalseema,Anantapur,Chittor,Cuddaph], SE KAR) and of course Sri Lanka? This will be 3rd drought year. NEM -Non Existent Monsoon. Whatever thunders received during SWM is just meager amount.

parshuram shinde said...

Foggy morning in santacruz

Shivkumar Mogal said...

Nashik SWM 2017 seasonal rainfall with Rainy Days in bracket :

June 249.4 mm (11)
July 479.8 mm (22)
Aug 160.6 mm(13)
Sep 148.2 mm (8)

Seasonal rainfall total: 1038 mm with 54 rainy days.

Nashik last 11 years seasonal rainfall as below:

Year Seasonal rainfall
2017 1038 mm (+466 mm)
2016 1032 mm (+ 460 mm)
2015 540 mm (- 32 mm)
2014 756 mm (+184 mm)
2013 743 mm (+171 mm)
2012 444 mm (-128 mm)
2011 567 mm (-5 mm)
2010 669 mm (+97 mm)
2009 379 mm (-193 mm)
2008 1097 mm (+ 525 mm)
2007 1041 mm (+469 mm)

Last 11 years Avg seasonal rainfall is 755 mm (+183 mm)

Mohsin mulla said...

Hi rajesh sir.
According to many international forcasters rain are predicted in mumbai and many parts of maharashtra in 2nd week of october till mid october. Your view on that.

NilaY Rajnikant Wankawala said...

Rise in water levels in reservoirs across the country

Read full article

http://m.thehindubusinessline.com/news/national/rise-in-water-level-in-reservoirs-across-country/article9879763.ece

sunny fernandes said...

Rains are predicted in mumbai during the second week of oct . May be because of some cyclone formation in oct close to mumbai.
Could be one of the reason .

Rajesh Kumar said...

Banglore just missed ATR of September, still a bountiful September for us. While I am typing, it is raining outside..

NilaY Rajnikant Wankawala said...

Source IMD

Seasonal cumulative rainfall all over India ending 30 09 2017 ( June to Sept ) recorded 841.3 MMS against normal 887.5 MMS.cumulative departure negative -5.2%.

Season ends.