Sunday, September 17, 2017

As on Monday Night, The UAC descended as a weak Low and moved N/NE, slightly inland ..
Anticipation of rains on Monday may be late and less, but may not totally disappoint...From Early Tuesday will see frequent interval ed showers with strong winds...maybe around 50-70 mms on Tuesday -Tuesday Night....
(I hope the vagaries of the weather does not let us down now)
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Monday 11.30 am IST Position of Trough and embedded UAC


Monday Morning Position of trough 





Best day for Kerala in the entire monsoon. Almost every inch of the state has reported good rainfall. At last, this year monsoon did not fail in Kerala after three years of failure.
Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 17.09.2017 in Kerala is enclosed. Neyyar dam down south is reaching full level.


Credit for Report: Pradeep John (PJ)

16 comments:

Hrishikesh said...

Sir where are the mumbai rains??

Cumulus Arjun said...

Any change in weather forecast today? Completely clear here

parshuram shinde said...

Cool and windy in Mumbai

Unknown said...

Rajesh, since I am somewhat non technical, does this position indicate it is moving towards Mumbai and may reach here in some period of time over the next 24 hours ?

Suresh

Vinod Desai said...

Sir,
Could this be moving towards gujarat ?

Cumulus Arjun said...

For the first time in recent years, IMD and even vagaries prediction has got wrong for heavy rains today :(( . Weather is really unpredictable.

abizer Kachwala said...

Yes...I agree...weather is incredible ....sunny here in Nagothane...yesterday it rained ...for hours...but today nothing....hope that it rains tonight....Rajesh sir explain the maps please...

abizer Kachwala said...

Cumulus Arjun: IMD is very famous in getting its forecasts go wrong..best example -30-08-2017 when No rain fell in mumbai inspite of the very heavy rain warning issued by IMD....So NEVER BELIEVE IN IMD....BESIDES...ITS very very difficult...to predict...we just believe blindly on rajesh sirs forecast...but sometimes he too can go wrong....but vagaries is known for the most precise and accurate forecasts...we should ignore if any deviation occurs...as we all know that "Nature is unpredictable"

Cumulus Arjun said...

The latest satellite photo shows that the trough which has been pushed away from the coast by the easterly winds has now become done and dusted. But there are a band of clouds over Gujarat and adjoining Maharashtra border areas moving southwards and looks like that can give good rains tonight/tomorrow in Mumbai. What's your views sir?

Hrishikesh said...

Yes no rain at all today sir when do we expect rain ? In mumbai

NilaY Rajnikant Wankawala said...

Appreciate efforts of Rajesh sir by putting up updates at regular intervals for depicting the reason why it did not rain as forecasted.

Shripad Nadiger said...

Rajesh sir.. Even if the system turns back towards Mumbai.. Will it have the same intensity..?

sset said...

Relax Saurabh I have not mentioned any negative sentiments... Central India always faced excess monsoon for last 5 years, this year may be bay low has moved quickly over MP but dumped enormous falls over GUJ/RAJ quite unusual. KERALA continuously faced droughts for last 3 years this year in tail end receiving some rains (PJ himself has put in blog).

Cumulus Arjun said...

Abizer: I still believe IMD is fairly accurate but vagaries is the most accurate in predicting weather.

Cumulus Arjun said...

Still no rain here
Scz- 0 mm
CLB- trace 8:30pm
Probably even that trace would have fallen in the evening hours

Saurabh Dwivedi said...

Dear SSET
"but dumped enormous falls over GUJ/RAJ".
Here are the rainfall figures for Rajasthan to date. Do read the numbers carefully.
West Rajasthan - Normal - 25.5 cm - This year - 36.5 cm
East Rajasthan - Normal - 59.6 cm - This year - 56.2 cm (Yes, That is actually below normal rainfall)

Mount Abu got "enormous" amount of rainfall this year. That is a fact.
Rajasthan state got "enormous" amount of rainfall this year. That is fiction.

I will take your advice and relax from hereon.
Regards
Saurabh