Sunday, June 04, 2017

Posted Monday 5th Night:
According to Vagaries, South West Monsoon covers Kerala..
Rainfall as on Monday Morning :

Low Pressure in West Central Arabian Sea will move towards South Oman.

Mumbai and Outer Townships.:
Monday and Tuesday will get the late thunder shower in some parts. Around 5-10 mms in these parts.
Wednesday will get heavier thunder showers by evening, with more widespread rains, could be upto 25-30 mms in some areas.

Warmer days in Saurashtra on Monday and Tuesday.

In Pakistan , on 4th June, Noorpurthal and  Bhakkar were very hot at 52°C. New record for Dera Ismail Khan when the town touched 51c on 4th June, breaking its previous record of 50c recorded in 1986.


Max informs: In Oman, Joba (31st May) and Qurayyat (30th May) both touched the Omani record for the highest ever temperature for the country...They both were at 50.8c.


By Popular demand, Vagaries has Re Started the contest to predict the expected  rainfall  for 2 Months of SWM 2017....see details on Monsoon Contest (June/July) 2017 Page

11 comments:

Prasad Godse said...

What about pune? No rain

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Banda in UP at 8.30am was 40.4℃.

Vinod Desai said...

Seems monsoon is stuck at kochi..

Naveen C S said...

Where is the monsoon??? still in Kerala...!!!
When it will come to inland from coastal Kerala and Karnataka..

Abizer Kachwala said...

Rajesh sir.....I am extremely sure...that Monsoon won't advance into North Konkan/Mumbai before 12th june keeping in mind the current scenario...Beating all forecasts Vagaries is as always top predictor.....great insight...IMD is currently giving unclear and biased forecasts....just to avoid panic amomg people...but the truth always remains truth....IMD cant change it...

rajesh said...

Monsoon activity along West Coast will revive after 8th, when the Low in the Arabian Sea moves inland into South Oman....
A seasonal "core"Low may form over Gujarat around 11th, and because of it, West coast off shore trough may strengthen.

rajesh said...

Prasad: Light rains in some parts of Pune on Mon/Tuesday. Heavy shower in parts of Pune possible on Wednesday.

Vijayanand said...

Heavy rain in extreme south bangalore last evening.
Gottigere: 44 mm
Anjanapura : 35 mm
Arkere : 37 mm
Begur: 33 mm

The rains came from west.
For my place the yearly rain reached 280 + 44 = 322 mm
We are well over the normal rains.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government Bureau of meteorology

Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 6 June 2017

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

 El Niño development pauses; ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is around a 50% chance of El Niño developing in 2017—double the normal likelihood. However several indicators have shown little or no increase for several weeks, suggesting El Niño development has stalled for now.

Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific remain warmer than average, though cooling has occurred in some areas over recent weeks in response to stronger than average trade winds. The Southern Oscillation Index has also eased to near zero values. All other ENSO indicators also remain neutral.

Four of eight international climate models suggest tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures may exceed El Niño thresholds during the second half of 2017, down from seven of eight models that were forecasting a possible event in April. Virtually all models have reduced the extent of predicted ocean warming compared to earlier in the year, indicating that if El Niño forms, it is likely to be weak.

El Niño is often, but not always, associated with a drier than average winter and spring over eastern Australia. If the tropical Pacific remains warmer than average, but El Niño thresholds are not quite met, some El Niño-like effects are still possible.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. Four out of six climate models suggest a positive IOD will develop by the end of winter. A positive IOD is typically associated with a drier than average winter and spring for southern and central Australia.

Next update expected on 20 June 2017

SVT said...

Mumbai gonna get over 300 mm rains from Friday till next weekend.

sset said...

Mumbai june rains are always surprises. last 2 weeks of June covers 2 months of rain!! (Extreme rains over MAHA/Mumbai - 600-900mm)