Sunday, June 18, 2017

Posted Sunday 18th Night:

The rains in Mumbai and Maharashtra , after a modest beginning, have become substantially weak. Vagaries had estimated this decrease in rains last week due to unfavourable upper wind and other factors. In fact the conditions are keeping the Monsoon advance over the Mumbai region in doubt.

Monday/Tuesday and Wednesday see no improvement either. Upper winds, shears and Jet streams seem to be stubbornly anti favourable for further rainfall increase in Mumbai, Maharashtra, Gujarat and M.P. rains next 3/4 days. In fact, no major favourable change ( like divergence etc) seen till Friday 23rd June.

Mumbai: Monday 19th/ 20th Tuesday/ 21st Wednesday will be partly cloudy, hot, and stuffy. A few passing showers in some parts of city. Monday might see a weak  thundery development in the East. 
Outer townships will be also seeing less than normal rains. A few passing showers, maybe a sharp one possible in some parts.

Pune & Aurangabad: Monday thru Thursday: Partly cloudy, with hotter days. Light rain in some parts of City.

Kolkata: Partly cloudy skies and hot days. Few showers in some parts. Thunder showers likely on Tuesday. Day will be very hot touching 39/40c on Wednesday.

18 comments:

Ron said...

Worrying signs for Mumbai

Dattaraj Joshi said...

Rajesh sir prediction is perfect for Hyderabad. It got heavy showers today

sarfarajkhan khan said...

Why is the monsoon so weak this time....was hoping for some good monsoonish rain but dreams got shattered..hope July and August will not follow June pattern

Cumulus Arjun said...

So it means even if there might be good rains in the last week of June, June would likely to end in deficit

Deepak Kotian said...

Rajesh Sir what about the low which was built in bay of Bengal how much it will effect mumbai kindly suggest

Hrishikesh said...

Heavy shower in Andheri currently

rajesh said...

Deepak Kotian: The Low which was in the Bay travel led inland as a "pulse" and is over Telengana. Hence i had estimated the current rains in Telengana. Low has fizzled out.

Arjun: As of now it seems the Monsoon will revive over Mumbai from Saturday, when some prolonged heavy showers may start. WIll update tomorrow.

Deepak Kotian said...

Rajesh Sir Pls share every comments and every update with us. As we suffering from water shortage problem since 10days

Ishan Vajpeyi said...

Rajesh Sir, when d'you expect the SW Monsoon to reach Delhi-NCR?

Nilay Wankawala said...

Alll over India CRF till 18.06.2017 83.1 MM ACTUAL
All Over India CRF till 18.06.2017 78.7 MM NORMAL
All over India % Departure till 18.06.2017 +5.5%

SOURCE IMD

Unknown said...

One true fact - year by year Indian monsoon is getting weaker,,, rainy days are getting less and torrential Rain incident are increasing,,, no models till now predict what will monsoon rain chances in next 2days correctly,,,, lows forms instantly and fizzle out when agency says it will remain active for next 2days,,,

rajesh said...

Please give your name whilst posting comments. It is necassary.

rajesh said...

Deepak:all comments and discussions are posted. Where are you from?

Monsoon outlook for Northern regions will be posted soon

Deepak Kotian said...

Sir I am from bhayander

Nilay Wankawala said...

Credit : Australian Government Bureau of Meterology

Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 20 June 2017

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up, ENSO Outlook and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

El Niño WATCH cancelled; ENSO neutral likely for 2017

The Bureau's ENSO Outlook has been downgraded from El Niño WATCH to INACTIVE. This follows a reversal of the early autumn warming in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, and an easing of climate model outlooks. The tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to remain neutral with respect to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in 2017.

In the atmosphere, the trade winds and Southern Oscillation Index are well within the neutral range. Equatorial sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific are slightly warmer than average. However, far eastern Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, which were several degrees above normal near the Peruvian coast during March and April, cooled during May and June. This warmth had the potential to spread and develop into an El Niño event with global effects, but eased as trade winds failed to reinforce the ocean warmth. Other ENSO indicators also remain neutral.

All eight international models surveyed by the Bureau now suggest tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain ENSO-neutral for the second half of 2017. This compares to seven of eight models that suggested a possible El Niño in April. While models have steadily eased back the likelihood of El Niño, most still indicate an increased chance of warmer and drier than average conditions for Australia over winter.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. Three out of six climate models suggest a positive IOD will develop by the end of winter, and three are neutral. A positive IOD is typically associated with a drier than average winter and spring for southern and central Australia.

ENSO Outlook

Our ENSO Outlook provides
up-to-date information on the likelihood
of an El Niño or La Niña developing.

ENSO Outlook dial showing status as inactive
The status is INACTIVE.

Next update expected on 4 July 2017

sset said...

Less rain may not impact MAHA considering excess outstanding rains in 2016.
But for southern India - GOD knows what will happen? unless Cauvery catchments receives torrential rains....

Narayanan Ky said...

Mumbai monsoon rarely fails it will soon revive and reach its quantum...!!
Being late this time doesn't mean it will be weak after onset...!!!
Cheer up and enjoy the monsoon ahead !!!

Vijayanand said...

sset : Apart from cauvery there are many other rivers in south india. Learn geography better and comment.