Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Posted Thursday Night:Latest for Mumbai:
Though we expected the rains to increase pace from Friday, the trend has started from Thursday evening...with Scruz recording 20 mms and Colaba 19 mms till 8.30 pm on Thursday.

Observing the developments, we boost up our estimate ....Friday will see showers increasing with about 40-45 mms , and the rain s continuing on Saturday. The gauge may see more on Saturday, approximately 50-55 mms. Days getting much cooler and pleasant as the day temperature drops to around 30/31c. 

Pune will see light rains this weekend, but a windy and cool Friday.


As mentioned yesterday, Monsoon moving in Northern Chattisgarh, East M.P./East U.P. and East Vidharbh by Saturday...rains increasing from Monday in East M.P.(Jabalpur)

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Posted Wednesday Night:

South West Monsoon has advanced into Southern Chattisgarh. Covering Odisha, South West Monsoon has advanced into Southern Chattisgarh.
The trough at mean sea level from northwest Rajasthan to northwest Bay of Bengal across north Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand & Gangetic West Bengal persists.
Monsoon Likely to move into Northern Chattisgarh, East U.P, East M.P. and Eastern Vidharbh by Saturday.

Off Shore trough along West coast developing, hence expected moderate increase in rains in Mumbai from Friday as mentioned on Tuesday.

Heavy rains likely in Goa and coastal Karnataka.

Lakes Storage for Mumbai lakes as on 21st June: Storage 317 Mcum..that is storage for about 80 days..till September 10th.
Information by Vagarian Jayesh Mehta.
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Posted Tuesday 20th Night:

Mumbai: A moderate recovery revival in rains seen (Not to the fullest extent) in Mumbai from Friday 23rd ...Friday and Saturday may see  a nominal increase in rains, maybe around 15 -20 mms per day. 

However Pune will be partly cloudy with light rains in some parts. No major change.

(On request) Akola region will see light scattered showers next 3 days. No major rainfall over 5 mms.

Saurashtra will also see no major increase in rains next 3 days. Light scattered rains in a few places upto 5 mms.

Massive thunder showers lash West Bengal on Monday 19th: 

Very heavy showers lashed Kolkata on Monday night ( Forecasted for Tuesday by Vagaries), with Alipore recording 94 mms and DumDum 30 mms in 24 hrs till Tuesday morning.
Bankura measured 177 mms, Diamond Harbour and  Cooch Behar 143 mms each. Digha 141 mms.Basirhat 129 mms.

Delhi NCR too had its share of the forecasted heavy rains: Rainfall in 24 hrs ended Tuesday morning: Pusa(IARI): 97.2mm, Pitampura: 81mm, Ridge: 72mm, Pusa: 52mm
Meerut: 41mm, Mungeshpur: 40mm, Noida: 30mm, Safdarjung: 27mm, Sonipat: 23mm, Rohtak: 10mm, Gurgaon: 4mm

31 comments:

Deepak Kotian said...

Rajesh Sir when we will get MUMBAI monsoon rain

Vinod Desai said...

Sir,

Can we term current monsoon as the most delayed monsoon ever for mumbai.

Regards,
Vinod

Nilay Wankawala said...

No Vinod I dont think so , Rajesh sir and other main contributors are the right persons to clarify but i dont think this is the most delayed yet even unofficially

Officialy IMD has already declared onset of Monsoon over Mumbai :-)

rajesh said...

Vinod/Nilay:

"Most Delayed Monsoon for Mumbai: June 25th 1959
Earliest Monsoon for Mumbai: 29th May 1956/62/72.

Earliest monsoon over Mumbai was on 23 May 1802 nd 1839 ( reconstructed data )

..Source ..Climate Dynamics journal ( G Adamson , D Nash )"
Taken from Vagaries Extreme Blog...for more details see http://vagariesmum.blogspot.in/
Scroll down to Mumbai Rainfall Records on the page.

rajesh said...

IMD has declared Monsoon over Mumbai on 12th June ...

RD said...

Weatherman, in your opinion are there chances of a monsoon revival in Mumbai or this going to be (another)dry year for Mumbaikars?If Yes, when can we expect a monsoon revival in and around Mumbai region?If no, what are the factors leading to the current dry spell in Mumbai?

Ashish Gupta said...

Rajesh Sir, overall I feel the monsoon behaviour in general has become more and more erratic over the last 10 years. Do you agree? And is it true that there 30 year epochs of low rainfall followed by 30 year epochs of high rainfall?

rajesh said...

Ashish Gupta:

I do not think or see erratic behavior, or any major erratic behavior in the Monsoon pattern. The ups and downs, and highs and lows occur, that is why and how records are created. Memory is short, and these late dates have been and have occurred before also.
refer the Vagaries Extreme blog. Mumbai rainfall records.

RD: Please give your full name. I have mentioned all the reasons , and have been mentioning the cause of delay in blog. In simple terms and not in details. On revival, I have given my view in this very article. As for if it is going to be another dry year, I am not competent enough to forecast such long term estimates.

Nilay comments: Thanks for the early reply.

Animish Masurkar said...

Very heavy rain in Andheri East mumbai

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Sir,will any Low for over north india in end of June?

Abizer Kachwala said...

Very heavy rain from 6-8pm in Nagothane near Roha district......

Abizer Kachwala said...

Rajesh sir,in your next forecast give forecast for nagothane,roha,pen regions .

Atul said...

Sir, Will ghat section in Maharashtra also pick up this weekend?

Nilay Wankawala said...

SOURCE IMD

All Over India CRF till 22.06.2017 ACTUAL 107.6 MM
All Over India CRF till 22.06.2017 NORMAL 103.8 MM
All Over India % Departure Till 22.06.2017 is +3.6%

Akshay Shah said...

Unfortunately, Friday is more brighter than Thursday in Goregaon area. Hope the scenario changes and monsoon rains (typical Mumbai rains) lash the city as early as possible. Monsoon is stuck on West Coast of INdia for more than 10 days now. When is it likely to move further North towards Gujarat?

Deepak Kotian said...

Sir there is no single drop of rain MUMBAI and MUMBAI subarbs sir as per ur predictions rain was going to increase Pls suggest it too hot and stuffy

Shripad Nadiger said...

Monsoon.. Is really giving a hard time to everyone.. Moment we see a ray of hope..the rains take a upturn.

sunny fernandes said...

Very Soon Heavy Downpours Will Start In MUMBAI..... LOOKING FORWARD FOR THE Famous 3 Digit Figures coming up from SANTACRUZ Mumbai ......

Unknown said...

When west MP area like indore and Ujjain will get heavy rain? International models showing very heavy rain in west mp between 28thJune-2ndjuly,,, your view sir? - - Vikas here

sset said...

IMD puts intense heavy rains over MAHA and GUJ for next 5 days!!

Monsoon is here most auspicious occasion to plant trees!
Maharashtra ambitious aim to plant 50 CRORES TREES in next few years! Last year planted 8 crore saplings this year 5 crore saplings - aim to become greenest state!

Deepak Kotian said...

Sir any advice

SVT said...

Keep The Faith :)

sset said...

Guess Mumbai bloggers need to visit Tamil Nadu to see how bad situation with years of rain failure!

Cumulus Arjun said...

Heavy rain for 20 minutes here in Goregaon Mumbai around 8 in the morning

shiekhz said...

sir models showing rains for sindh Wd and by the stregthen off shore trough, ur views need

Deepak Kotian said...

Sir all r giving their views what is ur views

Deepak Kotian said...

I think sset has gone mad giving rubbish comments in this group

sunny fernandes said...

15 minutes heavy rain in vasai ....rains likely to pick up in the night .

Abhijit said...

Though officially as per IMD, SWM has arrived in Mumbai on 12th June but technically it has made onset today till Valsad in S.Gujarat today. Though Mumbai was eluded of rain but North & NE of Mumbai had enjoyed rain all through day.. Excepted good 100mm+ rainfall figures tomorrow from Mumbai water supplying dam region of Thane district

Valsad recorded 82mm rainfall till 5.30pm with max temp 28c
Nashik recorded 55mm rainfall till 5.30pm with max temp 25.1c
Dahanu 23mm

Ghat section of Thane-Palghar-Nashik-Pune has also witnessed massive rain :

Some ghat rain fall till 7pm:

Khireshwar,Junnar 92mm
Ahupe,Ambegaon 79mm
Asane, Ambegaon 73mm
Madh,Junnar 69mm
Shirgaon,Bhor 67mm

Some Rainfall till 5 pm from Vagarian ShivKumar:

Igatpuri 157 mm
Trimbakeshwar 120 mm
Surgana 74 mm
Peth 62 mm

Salim Ramani said...

Rajesh Sir
Thank you so much for covering Jabalpur in your post .
As per IMD , Monsoon advanced to mandla which is in east MP and 90 K.M of Jabalpur.
And i feel that ,it sould advance to jabalpur by Monday as per your forecasting .
Thanks & Regards
Salim (Jabalpur)

sset said...

UMERPADA (DIST SURAT) 29, VALIA (DIST BHARUCH) 13, BORSAD (DIST ANAND) 11, RAJPIPALA (DIST NARMADA) 11, BECHARAJI (DIST MEHSANA) 11, DEDIAPADA (DIST NARMADA) 11, VADODARA (DIST VADODARA) 10, MAHUDHA (DIST KHEDA) 9, NETRANG (DIST BHARUCH) 9

GUJ 3 digit extreme falls!!!!! (from IMD) in cms