Friday, December 25, 2009

Rains from the west ??

The N.E. Monsoon is still somewhat retaining its strenght over the south Tamil Nadu coast, with Manimutharu recording 16 cm rain and Orathanadu-14 cm, yesterday.

The easterly wave hitting the south east coast is keeping the Monsoon active and going, in the waning period of the season. But, now, this wave is capable of forming up a low-pressure area around the southwest Arabian Sea.

Now, for a little surprise ! Many forecast models see this low pressure forming in the south Arabian Sea, say by Saturday, 26th. and is seen moving towards the west coast of India.
COLA/NCEP predicts it to centre straight on to Goa. As a result, light rains will commence along the Karnataka and Kerala coast from Sunday. And on Monday, there could be some increase in rains along this section.
For Goa and South Konkan and Karnataka coast, it could be rains from Monday thru Tuesday.
As of today, ( considering the forecast of NCEP/COLA of the low hitting the west coast), thundershowers measuring upto 10 mms has been forecasted for Goa and Karnataka coast on Monday/Tuesday. Around 10-20 mms could be expected along the rest of Karnataka,South Konkan/South Maharashtra regions too (Monday/Tuesday). Pune could recieve light rain too.
For Mahableshwar, I could imagine 5- 10 mms of rain on Monday/Tuesday.

As expected from Friday, Mumbai has seen some reduction in night temperature. With a low at 15.8c at S'cruz, things are getting better !
But, as the prediction holds today, I would expect some drizzling to creep into Mumbai (Monday/Tuesday), and would put it as a partly cloudy Sunday ( read warmer ) for Mumbai, with the weekend temperatures ranging between 31c and 22c.
Clearing very fast after Tuesday, Mumbai should possibly see a "good" fall in night temperatures by New Year's Eve.

The Northern Indian areas are now feeling the gradual grip of winter.
Today,25th,Ladakh region,as usual, was the coldest with Shylok at -25c, Kargil and Leh reading at -19c . Srinagar was at -5c.
Down in the plains, it was Sarsawa at 0.6c, Amritsar reading at 1.6c, and several stations between 3-5c.
In Maharashtra/Gujarat, the coldest place was Ahmednagar, at 6c. Nasik and Pune touched 8.5c, the lowest this season.

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