Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Global Warming--?? -II

When we talk about Global Warming or Heating, we actually mean a rise (or fall) in the temperature on the Earth. Now, how is this measured or calculated ? I am no expert, but I know roughly how this is done.


Computer Models do this stuff.


The goal of these climate models is to project how rising greenhouse-gas emissions affect the global temperature. The models are technological marvels. Using supercomputers, they divide the world into grids of roughly 4,000 cubic miles apiece.


It is complicated stuff. The models consist of a whole lot of complicated equations written to how players such as sunlight, clouds and rain influenced by powerful ocean currents and tiny specks of sea salt, alter the readings.


Added to the equations are such measurements as past temperatures, barometric pressure and sea salinity. Calculations about the influence of sunlight are fed in. Various projections of greenhouse-gas emissions are factored in. The computers then run the equations and make projections of global temperatures.


"The models are only as good as the information they are fed, and the success of the models depends on the accuracy of their assumptions.


The effects of clouds, for example, are unclear. Depending on their shape and altitude, clouds can either trap heat, warming the earth, or reflect it, cooling the planet, and greenhouse gases affect cloud formation -- and clouds in turn affect temperature".


Also, one big uncertainty is ocean temperature. Oceans trap huge amounts of heat, and the vastness of the oceans makes gathering temperature data costly and arduous.


Now, the flip side:


On a graph, the models' temperature projections ultimately point upward, signifying warming. But along the way, each line has dips -- temporary periods of cooling. The timing and depth of the drops differ from model to model.


Global climate models did not account for a drop in global temperatures since 2006, but climate scientists believe the lower temperatures are temporary.


Ok, a few years of cooling doesn't mean that people aren't heating up the planet over the long term. But the cooling wasn't predicted by all the computer models. That has led to one point of argument: The models are imperfect.


And humans controlling the Global Warming, as such ?? Its a no-no.


Its pathetic when they tell you to switch your light bulbs, turn down the themostat of your heating system by one degree, tell you to buy a “green” car, use “green” energy, windmills, solar energy, bio fuels.


What’s more serious, it claims they are going to control the temperature of the planet by 2 degree Fahrenheit!


The effort equals the emptying of the Pacific Ocean with a tea spoon.


It won’t influence our climate in any form whatsoever.

kapadias@gmail.com


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