Continuing from the previous blog, the projected low in the bay has formed, intensified into a depression, and now, on Saturday evening, lies at 17N and 87E, 420 kms east south-east of Vizag. Susequently, this is expected to intensify more, and move in a north easterly direction. It should gain and become a cyclone within the next 36 hrs.
As a result of the strengthening , much of the moisture and rain clouds in the bay and in the southern peninsula today, will gradually get pulled towards the system. Resultantly, rains will decrease from the coastal regions and interiors of TN in the next 24hrs., and from coastal and interior AP after 36hrs.
Much rain, would now gain and concentrate in the Orissa, W.Bengal regions in the next few days.The system, cyclone "Abe" if named (Ashokbhai corrects me and informs the name will be "Rashmi"), would strike the WB/Banladesh coast around 28th.
Thus, I see a respite from rains for TN and AP from 26th./27th. The lull in the rains may last till the 4th. of November, when the effect of the system will wear off, and allow the easterly waves from the bay to bring back rain bearing clouds.
The bay depression is pulling in all the moisture from the weak low in the south Arabian Sea as well. The current rains in the southern peninsula is a result of the rain clouds being dragged across the land towards the east. Hence, this system in the western sea is expected to fizzle out soon.
Remarkably low temperature ( for this time of October),of 11.6c was recorded at Pune today, 25th.October, 18c is normal. Several stations in Maharashtra had 12c (Nasik and Ahmednagar).
In the extreme north, winter has started setting in the Kashmir/ HP regions. In HP, first snowfall has been recorded in the Rohtang Pass, and all the higher reaches. Kalpa and Keylong have recorded 0c as their lowest temperatures this season. In Kashmir, the low in Srinagar is now 4c, and -1c in Leh during the last 2 nights.
Next blog update of the cyclone and winter progress will be on 29th.