All on schedule! The south -west monsoon has given way to the north-east monsoon on the 14th. of October. As yet no organised system is seen in the bay, so, as mentioned, the rains will not be widespread in the south. The ICTZ having moved south, to almost 5N, is cause of the belt of rain clouds seen in satellite images on the southern tip of India and below.
But a low is forecasted in the bay during the week 21-28 October. Its intensification needs to be observed, though a few models have projected a cyclone in the bay by the 24th. I would wait for the advancing W.D., now a couple of days away, and then determine the bay system's movement.
The anticipitated low in the Arabian Sea has formed, and is now at 5N. Its movement is projected towards Oman, on intensification, but I would not rush into any forecasting now !
Meanwhile, a fairly active W.D. has whitewashed the upper hills of Kashmir with the first snow, and the plains of north India with winter rains. A sharp fall now in night temperatures for the north from 17th.
next update on 20th.