Continuing from the last blog, the 200hpa westerly jet streams have slid further south, almost to 20N , and the sea level winds have completed their reversal, and the south-west monsoon has moved away from all regions of the country, except the southern states of Karnatak, A.P.,T.N., and Kerala. But the streamline map shows the entire southern region to be ready for the simultaneous "transition" of the south-west monsoon to the north-east monoon in couple of days.
Initially, the rains in T.N. not be very widespread in the absence of an organised system. But the 200hpa jet stream will bring the rain clouds inland as Easterly waves, in "immature formations", will push into the coastal areas of T.N. and south A.P.
Meanwhile, all international models show the formation of a low in the south Arabian Sea around the 16th. As mentioned, the heating up of the Maharashtra/ Gujarat and central peninsula regions can dominate the course of the low. Map from IMD shows the north-west regions of India, and adjoining Pakistan, heating up to temperatures above 39c. The heat is expected to cover the entire Gujarat/ Maharastra regions.
The low is projected to intensify, and move north in the subsequent days after 16th. Its movement will be watched after it forms.
Next blog will be updated on 16th. October.