Saturday, January 05, 2008

The receding cold wave saw some really low temperatures in the last few nights.. Besides the temperatures mentioned in my last blog, a of the few notable lows were: Lodhi Gardens (Delhi) 1.3 degrees c, Awantipur (Kashmir) -9 degrees c, Jalandhar -2 degrees c and Nalliya (Gujarat) 2 degrees c.

With the advent of the anticipated W.D., the cold wave conditions in north India have abated. Suddenly with the emerging cloud cover, the night temperatures will rise by 4-5 degrees c overnight. Extensive cloud ccver is seen over Pakistan today, where the rain/snow has commenced, and Srinagar has experianced snow today. This particular W.D., being a bit feeble, will effect the the regions of central and north Pakistan and hilly areas of India only. But the second W.D. in the sereis, coming on the heels of the first, is stronger. For the second W.D., assisted with the help of a "secondary low" in the sindh area of Pakistan and Rajasthan, the incursion of moisture from the Arabian Sea into all of Pakistan, Rajasthan and all the regions of north India ( Punjab,Kashmir, Haryana and the hilly states) will be particularly heavy.

Heavy rain can be expected in the coastal areas of sindh on 6-7 Jan. and plenty of rain in the rest of Pakistan.
Come Monday and punjab, haryana and delhi and the north western parts of the India are likely to see a mix of cloud and showers, some of the showers heavy, with the chance of some hail and thunder. The north of gujarat and south rajasthan will have some cloud and a few light showers at times.

The two combined W.D.s are likely to last till the end of next week, till the 13th. before disintgrating into the central Himalayas (Due to stronger n-e winds from the bay). A cold wave can be expected in all of north, central and western India (including maharashtra and north karnatak) from the 13th. onwards. More of this later, as it is premature to forecast that from now !

The prevailing easterly wave bringing rain to south India will dissipate soon, maybe by tomorrow. With the W.D.s moving in, south is not expected to get much rain through any systems or "waves". In fact, the existing north easterly winds blowing over the bay, can get stronger, and push the rain belt southwards.

kapadias@gmail.com





No comments: