Wednesday, January 30, 2008

The prolonged cold spell over north/northwest/west India finally seems to nearing its end. As per IMD, wit the advent of the W.D., northern regions will start getting the south-westerlies from the 2nd. of Feb. As a result, the temperatures will rise by 3/4 c from the 2nd.

The W.D. is of average strenght, and will result in moderate rains on the 2/3 in the north/northwest and snow over the hills.

What has to be watched is if the expected ridge aloft starts dominating the region. If so, the flow of W.D.s will be halted, albeit temporarily.

There is a mention of a good monsoon by Vinson Kurien, of the Business Line, quoting from a Japanese source.. He also mentions a report from the Japanese source that the La Nina conditions and other parameters are similar to the ones that were prevelant in 1988, when we had a good monsoon.

Well, I would like to mention, that from my records, I see a very hot summer had occured in 1988. This was a result of very little snow cover over western and central Himalayas. Which, in turn was due to no W.D.s in Jan 1988 and only 2 weak W.D.s in Feb '88. This is contrary to the situation of the current year. The snow cover this year is fairly good already as of end Jan. In Jan this year, 2/3 major W.D.s have occured. Comparing the snow cover in 2008, it shows much more coverage than 2007.

In 1988, 2 major W.D.s were prevelent in March.

For getting a proper picture and estimate on the behaviour of the 2008 Monsoon, I would wait till the end of March. That would help us guage the snow cover, estimate the summer heat ( indicative of the extent of "low" development over Rajasthan), and the ITCZ movement from south to north.
I shall be away for a few days and will update my blog on 9th Feb.

1 comment:

Amit J said...

excellent blog....very informative