Friday, January 18, 2008

For the present, the last in the series of W.Ds from the west has dissipitated within a day (a day too early), into the Himalayas. There was very little rain/snow today (Friday), and the temperatures were kept above normal by the full flow of moisture into the heartland of India. The IMD departure map of the night temperatures shows it all.

But, as per the estimated forecast date chronology in my previous writeup, the cold wave is to set in over most of the regions by tomorrow. Clear weather with dry northwesterly winds will rule the central, north-west and northern regions, for the next 3/4 days. Thus spearheading cold conditions.

South will remain dry with normal temperatures for the next few days.

Another (feeble ?) W.D. is shown by the "COLA" forecast, and will first precipitate rain over central Arabia and Dubai on the 22nd. Moving on towards Pakistan, it will bring rain there by the 23rd., mostly to the north and some regions of northern Sindh.
The system will be over north-west and north India by the 24th.
Due to the upper air trough firm over the entire region till the end of Jan, we see these series of W.D. systems frequenting the Gulf and the sub continent. The contour map shows more cold air penetrating from the icy extreme north into the gulf region. Thus the severe cold wave there.

For the south, I do not see any chances of rain till the month end at least. The forthcoming strong north-westerlies over the landmass of India, and the north-easterlies over the bay, will knock off any easterly wave trying to approach the east coast.

Meanwhile, according to the BoM (Australia), the current LA NINA, has become a little stonger. The current SOI is +14, very high, and thus causing more than normal cloudiness over region east of Australia, in the south. In the north of the equator, clouding is seen east of Indonesia, due to the favourable SOI. I estimate, this would have brought a wave or two to the east coast of India, but for the north winds mentioned above.

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Posted Wednesday evening : BB 8 tracks over M. P. Bringing good rainfall.  East MP 5-16 vms, West M. P up to 12 cms and a good 4-16 cms ...