BB6 , now over west MP and adjoining Gujarat, has,according to me, weakened 2 notches to 998 mb. The system is more "spread out" over West MP into Gujarat.
The Low over Saurashtra has again become an UAC, and is over extreme west Gujarat and also over the adjoining Arabian Sea.

Gujarat Report:
Due to the low over Saurashtra, the "zero" mm towns in Kutch have recieved rainfall. Abdasa, started the season yesterday with 10 mms, while Nakhatrana, which was 0 mm today totals 130 mms.Bachhau totals 112 mms. Anjar is 86 mms. Bhuj total is only 19 mms. First hand reports from Kutch state that at least now, the grazing grass for cattle will be available. Kutch has recieved 23% of normal rains till now.
Elsewhere in Gujarat, Sabarkantha district recieved good rains, with Modasa getting 113 mms in last 24 hrs.
Dahod district too got good rains with the highest being 124 mms at Jalod.

Saurashtra got moderate rains, with the best in Jamnagaer and Junagadh dists. Highest were 82 mms in Junagadh, 73 mms in Dwarka, 62 mms in Khambhalia, 60 mms in Visavadar.
In South, Surat city got 57 mms and the highest was at Choryasi with 77 mms.Bharuch got 5 mms with the season total at 463 mms.

Trying to put up Friday/Saturday/Sunday weather tonite..

Posted @ 10.15 pm Wednesday..


And it has happened a day earlier than expected. A low has formed over Saurashtra at 1000 mb and is centred near Rajkot. This has brought down the active axis down South to Deesa (Gujarat) and runs west into BB6, now over MP and adjoining Vidharbha. 
Vidharbha got very heavy rains (as per forecast), with Nagpur getting 133 mms and Amravati 113 mms overnight and 69 mms till 5.30pm today.

Rainfall earlier forecasted for Sindh (Pakistan) for Thursday has commenced on Wednesday itself.Thatta  got 50 mms. Karachi got a good 35 mms, with several parts of city reporting good rains today (as per fb and blog reports).

Thursday: BB6 moves further westwards into Gujarat region, and, 
a) either merges with the low over Gujarat or b) the Gujarat low moves westwards also.

Rainfall in Saurashtra and Gujarat region can continue eitherway. 
Since rains have commenced in coastal Sindh and Karachi, it will continue on Thursday as systems move west. An inflow from the sea will push the rains into Sindh Northwards. Entire Sindh region will get moderate rains Thursday, with a few heavy falls in the South....

Mumbai forecast valid for Thursday as given:
"Thursday: Intermittent showers, frequented with long breaks continue. But, again, some heavy spells may add up the total to 30 mms."

Voyager 1 becomes the farthest interstellar spacecraft to have ever gone into space..as it leaves our Solar System...with very interesting images of Earth en-route...must see on Space News Page of Vagaries.

Wed afternoon Post:
BB6 moves West and lies over MP. Moving West at same strength.May merge with UAC if UAC remains intact.

Rainfall to increase in Northern Maharashtra and Adjoining Southern Gujarat coast (Surat).

Frequency and Intensity of rainfall may increase in North Konkan (Mumbai) by tonite.


The low, BB6, has deepened, and at 996 mb, lies over Chattisgarh and adjoining Vid. Major clouding associated with this low is seen in the Low itself, and moisture attracted clouding in the West of the system.
Nagpur recorded heavy rains on Tuesday, with 51 mms till 5.30 pm. 
BB6 is expected to move westwards. On Wednesday, Low will be centred North of Nagpur.

Wednesday, 5th: As BB6 tracks west, we may see very heavy rains in Vidarbha, Southern MP and adjoining Marathwada. Rainfall upto 100 mms expected in certain places. Rains moving into Indore region. 
Moderate* rains in Konkan will continue, with stations recording upto 13-15 cms in the ghats. 

Thursday, 6th: Rainfall will be heavy in Northern Maharashtra, adjoining Gujarat coast and South Rajasthan. Moderate rains continue in Konkan, with heavy falls in North Konkan.

Also on Thursday, new low descends ( from the existing UAC) off the Saurashtra coast. The west coast trough moves away westwards from Thursday.
Thursday, Saurashtra gets moderate rainfall. Moderate precipitation in adjoining Sindh, Central Sindh and Karachi.
Adjoining Sindh (SE) and coastal Pakistan are slated to get moderate rains also. Karachi can expect monsoon showers on Thursday, with the low moving west in the sea. 

With BB6 moving inland, the trough off the east coast gets "dismantled". Reducing rainfall in TN and Interior Karnataka next 2/3 days.

City Forecast:
Mumbai City: Tuesday (daytime) was dry in South Mumbai with only 3 mms of rain. Scruz managed 27 mms till 8.30 pm.
Heavy Tuesday overnight rains, upto 50-60 mms.

Wednesday: Cloudy skies, with showers interspersed during the day. The day's total to around 35 mms(Avg) gives an indication of the quantum of rain. 

Thursday: Intermittent showers, frequented with long breaks continue. But, again, some heavy spells may add up the total to 35 mms.

Thane region can get heavy rains on Thursday.

Pune: Wed/Thursday: cloudy, with light rains in certain areas.

Delhi NCR: Wednesday/Thursday: Sporadic local showers in some areas. Rainfall will be restricted to local pockets as it is not from any organised system. Rainfall upto 10 mms where it rains.
Rainfall can increase on Friday in Haryana and NCR

Surat: Rainfall increasing on Thursday.

See Mumbai Page for Regular Tuesday Update and lake levels as on Tuesday...
Rainfall around Mumbai in 24 hrs ended 8.30am Tuesday:
Palghar 422 mms, Dahanu 360 mms,Thane 190 mms, S'Cruz  185, Vasai 177 mms, Ulhasnagar 155 mms, Kalyan 138 mms, Panvel 93 mms, Colaba 90 mms, Vagaries (Mahalaxmi) 89 mms.

Lucky break for Marathwada, with stations getting between 40-60 mms. Sonpeth highest with 105 mms and Pathari got 100 mms.  
Pradeep's Page in Vagaries: All India Toppers as on 1st September....State wise Toppers ....see Current Weather Page Now !

As yet, Vagaries is not numbering the new low, meaning, i do not hold out too much from this.
But, on the other hand, vagaries had informed of an UAC over Saurashtra Monday evening. Surat and Bharuch getting rains from this system currently.

Very possible that this UAC can descend to sea level and form a low, south of the Saurashtra coast soon.
Holding hopes from this for coastal Sindh (Pakistan).

Mumbai Forecast for Tuesday:
Tuesday, cloudy and occasional showers. Brightning up later in the day. Rain amount will be less than half Monday's. Total day's rain, in showers, will be around 35-40 mms in 24 hrs. Rainfall decreases by evening.
Thane and Panvel neighbourhood will see some early heavy some occasional (not persisting) heavy showers. Total 24 hrs rain amount will be around 65-75 mms.

Mumbai Lakes  figures of Monday/Tuesday comparison will be up tomorrow.

Vagaries'  counter ticked 2500  hits  for the day today.( counter changes at mid night)..Thank You Readers..

Posted @ 9.50 pm....After an hour's drizzle, Rainfall has stopped here since 9.30pm...please send other reports too.
As yet the forecast seems ok -:)  will be putting up a forecast for Mumbai again tonite.


Meanwhile, the UAC at 700 hpa has moved over the Gujarat Peninsula, and at 1200 hrs UTC Monday, lies over the Saurashtra region.
A Low has formed in the Bay at 998 mb, off the North AP/Orissa coast. Tracking will presently be  along the axis..

Rainfall from 8.30am to 8.30 pm Monday: Scruz 148 mms, Colaba 80 mms.Official observatory readings. Same period AWS: Goregaon 220 mms, Dahisar 172 mms.Chembur 122 mms.Dadar 108 mms.


Posted @ 4.45 pm Monday:See Pic on Mumbai Page,,Fog in Mumbai...-:)


The rainfall recorded varies a lot in different parts of the city: from 8.30am to 4.30pm

Way up Vasai recorded 85 mms, Dahisar 77 mms, and Thane 80 mms.
To the east, Barvi Dam at Badlapur 90 mms, Navi Mumbai 55 mms (to be confirmed by the sources).
In the city, Chembur 33 mms, Andheri 25 mms, Malad 55 mms. S'Cruz AP 25 mms and Colaba Observatory 16 mms. Vagaries (Mahalaxmi) 21 mms.

The purpose of putting up the figures are to show that the heavy downpours and intensities are fluctuating in different parts of the City.

So, it will be very difficult to forecast and judge for an exact location. But overall for Mumbai city:
Monday early evening should see another spell of heavy rains in the Eastern and Northern suburbs. A short burst of rain in Central parts possible around late evening/night.
Rainfall decreasing after 8/9 pm to a drizzle, as convection could reduce. 

Tuesday may be less than half the amount of rainfall as compared to Monday. Brightning up in the day.
Mumbai Dam figures of Monday/Tuesday comparison will be up tomorrow.

Thane rains also reducing from night, infact evening.


My perspective of the reasoning for the Mumbai Rains: Posted @ 3 pm Monday

Till yesterday we were aware of the west coast trough strenghening. 
Now, it was the formation of a vortex off the Mumbai coast at 700 hpa that brought about inland convection, within a 100 kms radius of Mumbai, but to the east. As we discussed in the morning, the semi circle started forming inlad to the east after morning hours. Good (low) condensation levels (see map) and favourable conditions, and fast deepening, depth of the vortex at -70, brought violent storms.
Again at 2.30pm, high thunder clouds are seen developing around Matheran and to the NW of it. The cloud height has again reached 15 kms. 

 Above are charts of the vortex at 00Z UTC, condensation levels and a close up of the region at 3 kms .

Mumbai Page Just Updated..1.00pm


A point by point review of vagaries' August forecast showed a 65-70% accuracy in the overall sequences of meteorological events and happenings in the month.
City wise figures have varied a bit with the overall prediction (of all cities combined) overshooting by 24%.(See Current Page for break up).


Come September ! 
One of the most dicey and difficult months to predict as far as the SWM is concerned. We have the "uncertainty" of the withdrawal, and we could have a WD unwantingly interfering with the systems and interacting with the Easterlies in the North, or we could even have a stubbornly active axis refusing to move down.
But, lets see and analyse what could be the scene this year. This year we have seen the Monsoon "yo-yo" up and down, from a scary drought situation when all and sundry joined the bandwagon in blaming everyone from the met dept to the Govt. Then suddenly, August picked up with 2 lows and an UAC from the Bay, creating an active axis and an unusually active eastern off shore trough. 

Now, September sees 1) A Neutral ENSO scenario. 2) A Neutral IOD position. 3) Below normal SST in the Arabian Sea, with Somali coast reaching 19c. 4) Strong Equatorial SW winds. 5) 200 hpa jet streams now Westerlies at 30N. 5) Western end of axis weakening slightly. 6) Siberian Tibetan pressure at 1012 today.

Points no 1) and 2) are not going to interfere this month with the normal flow. Point no.3) for forming coastal clouding along the west coast and 4) will favour that. 5) are just about normally placed, ready to move south at the call, which the weak low in Sindh is ready to give.
But, a stream of pulses, read lows, coming in from the Bay will keep the axis "alive" and prevent it from sliding in the first 10 days at least. 
Sindh (Pakistan) regions have some hope of one more spell between 5th-10th of the month.

Hence, presuming the MJO gets into a weak phase around 10th, and does not allow any lows to form or the monsoon to activate, we can expect a withdrawal from the North Pakistan and Sindh region after the 10th. Maybe 10th-15th ? By the end of the month, the SWM would be out of all states north of Maharashtra and AP.

So, rainfall could be "maintained " in the first half of the month in the Central (SE Rajasthan, MP, Gujarat) and Northern Peninsula regions. The NW region and Northern plains can have thundershowers in the first half of the month. 
Second half, sees more thunderstorm activities, precipitating heavy downpours in almost all of Central and Peninsula India. Rainfall starts shifting Southwards.

The rainfall for the Month would be near average. End of the season all India deficit may end up with a manageable  -12%-15%

September Rainfall estimate for:
Mumbai: 425 mms (Avg).  Outer Townships around Mumbai on Mainland around 550 mms.
Pune: 150 mms
Surat: 175 mms
New Delhi: 175 mms (Avg)
Bangalore: 200 mms
Chennai: 140 mms (Avg).

Estimates and Figures are worked out on basis of withdrawal and systems calculations. These are my personal calculations and may not be used for any commercial use.

Latest Monsoon Analysis from GSB on Inter Active Page..Must see

Sunday/Monday Revised forecast Posted on Current Weather Page

.

Saturday morning, BB5 has weakend over MP, and has risen to become an UAC at 850 hpa. As a result, the trough of the East coast has re-located itself near the coast line from North AP to TN coast again.The other low has also fizzled out.
West coast trough also back in position.

IMD mentions of another low forming in the Bay around 4th September. I do not see any pulse formation or indications yet, but will be keeping a close watch on the slightest development on this.

I see the monsoon axis moving thru Central India, its normal position, today. The western end in Pakistan also gets weaker. As anticipated,parts of Saurashtra also got rains yesterday, and Shitij from Surat mentions of heavy rains there yesterday. 
He has put up details on FB Vagaries. 

As mentioned in the forecast earlier, the Sindh regions and Saurashtra Kutch regions will see a decrease in rains from today.

(Pease check forecast  and actual in previous post. Actual rain for all cities updated).