Posted Wednesday Night
The system in Central India has now as good as fizzled out.Currently a trough remains in the region.
Next 5 days Almost dry for Most of Punjab, West Rajasthan, Kutch, Saurashtra and North Gujarat region, Madhya Mah, Marathwada and N.I. Karnataka till 10th August. 

Day temperatures rising in Rajasthan and Kutch.Sindh region remains mainly without any major or meaningful rains, with warmer days.
Next Low, BB-4, could possibly form in North Bay between 10th-12th August.

Mumbai will get decreasing rains till Sunday. A few passing showers in some parts, and warm sunny spells.
Pune too will be not getting much rains till Sunday. A few light showers in some parts, but pleasant nights.

Again rains abstain from Aurangabad next few days.

Passing and regional thunder showers, like last 2 days, will continue in Delhi NCR. May get around 15 mms per day. 


Note on Thursday (evening) on El Nino and MJO conditions.

Marathwada "Mini Cold Wave "...Max, Min and rain...as on Wednesday 5th August
OSMANABAD              26.2(-2.5)             18.7(-1.8)           0.5
AURANGABAD            23.6(-5.6)             21.0(-0.4)          6.0
PARBANI                     25.4(-5.3)              21.1(-1.7)          2.0
NANDED                      26.0(-5.3)              17.0(-5.4) 

Cat 3 Typhoon Soudelor Threatens Taiwan And China..For Details See International Page

Posted Wednesday Morning:
 
Well Marked Low ( 999 mb) lies over SW Madhya Pradesh.Will fizzle out in next 12 hrs...However, some rain expected along Mah.coast North of Mumbai.
Delhi NCR can get its Wednesday Thunder Shower
 
Rainfall in Vidharbh and West M.P. in 24 hrs ended Wednesday Morning:

Station              Max (�C)    Min �C       Rainfall (mm)
Akola                   23.5                  21.2                       187.7
Amraoti               22.2                 19.8                        184.2
Buldana              21.5                 20.2                        165.0
Brahmapuri         25.1                  21.9                          10.2

Chandrapur        24.6                  24.0                           11.4

Nagpur                  24.0                  21.0                        78.2
Washim                  23.0                  21.2                      150.0
Wardha                  23.9                  20.6                      105.5
Yeotmal                 22.0                  19.0                      223.4

Indore, with a high of 25.7c and a low of 20.2c, recorded 191 mms..And , West M.P. was not at all in the Rain Radar Forecast.! Rains were forecasted in Vagaries for East M.P. (which happened on Monday) and in Vidharbh.
Aurangabad in Marathwada saw 46 mms of much needed rains. Vadod Bazar, 40 kms North of Aurangabad, where farmers were facing the grimmest situation, measured around 60 mms.

No major station in Gujarat recorded more than 3 mms of rain.

Leh records 12.8 mms last 24 hrs.ended Tuesday 4th August morning. This makes it twice as the highest 24 hrs rainfall for rain in August in last 10 years. In 2010 also 12.8 mms was recorded on 6 th August. The heaviest fall ever in 24 hrs for August was in 1933, when 51 mms was measured. Average August rain is 15 mms.

See Rohit's Page updated for Mumbai Stats

Expected VIDARBHA Rains:
Max Temperature and Rainfall on Tuesday...8.30 am -5.30 pm
AKOLA                             23.5c (-6.9)                074.0 mms
AMRAOTI                         22.2c (-7.9)                083.0 mms
BULDHANA                      21.5c (-5.7)                085.0 mms
BRAMHAPURI                  25.1c (-4.7)                009.0 mms
CHANDRAPUR                 24.6c (-6.2)                010.0 mms

NAGPUR                           24.0c (-6.4)                034.0 mms  ( Nagpur Accumulated 2 days 82 mms; Forecasted 75 mms)

Aurangabad received 11 mms in the same period

Posted Tuesday Morning:
Low pressure ( 1000 mb) develops in the trough, almost part of trough, and lies over East M.P. on Tuesday Morning. COLA Chart of Monday evening gives an idea of the "reconstructed Low" forming again... 

Rains commence in Vidharbh:
Rainfall last 24 hrs ended Tuesday Morning: Wardha 59 mms, Nagpur 48 mms,Amraoti 32 mms, Akola 31 mms, Brahmapuri 23 mms.
M.P. & Chattisgarh:  Jabalpur 95 mms, Pendra Road 54 mms, Sagar 46 mms, Hoshangabad 34 mms, Raipur 32 mms, Khajuraho 30 mms.

Tuesday Morning:

Wherever the Low, Clouds are for Maharashtra only :-)

All India Monsoon Position District wise up to 3rd August

MONSOON REPORT (01-6-2015 TO 31-7-2015)
TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL (as on 31-7-2015)	429.8 mm
SEASON +/-	-5%
TO ACHIEVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER          required per day------->	mm
MINIMUM                             700   mm	4.43
AVERAGE                                890   mm	7.54
MAXIMUM                          1100   mm	10.99
CURRENT RAINFALL PER DAY	7.05 mm
REQUIRED PER DAY TO ACHIEVE AUG AVERAGE (262 mm)	8.45 mm
TOP NINE SUBDIVISIONS ABOVE NORMAL (1-6-2015 to 31-7-2015)
WEST RAJASTHAN                                                                                                                         287.8 mm	117%
GANGETIC WEST BENGAL                                                                                                           850.7 mm	48%
WEST MADHYA PRADESH                                                                                                          582.3 mm	47%
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH                                                                                                               390.4 mm	42%
JAMMU & KASHMIR                                                                                                                    354.6 mm	38%
EAST RAJASTHAN                                                                                                                          393.6 mm	37%
JHARKHAND                                                                                                                                      612  mm	15%
COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH                                                                                                   298.7 mm	13%
GUJARAT REGION                                                                                                                         517.7 mm	11%
BOTTOM TEN SUBDIVISIONS BELOW NORMAL (1-6-2015 to 31-7-2015)
N M M T                                                                                                                                            623.6 mm	-25%
KONKAN & GOA                                                                                                                          1362.5 mm	-25%
MADHYA MAHARASHTRA                                                                                                         288.7 mm	-26%
COASTAL KARNATAKA                                                                                                              1492.1 mm	-26%
KERALA                                                                                                                                             969.6 mm	-30%
BIHAR                                                                                                                                                353.6 mm	-31%
EAST U.P.                                                                                                                                          274.4 mm	-32%
RAYALASEEMA                                                                                                                              102.5 mm	-37%
N. I. KARNATAKA                                                                                                                          128.1 mm	-47%
MARATHWADA                                                                                                                             145.8 mm	-56%
TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2015 to 31-7-2015)	24 (39%)
TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2015 to 31-7-2015)	37 (61%)
TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS IN JULY	9 (29%)
TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE DAYS IN JULY	22 (71%)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See Latest Weather Update on Current Weather Page	source -IMD

Article on Marathwada to be Printed in Lokmat Times of Monday 3rd August..See Mumbai Page

Rajasthan Drenched by Heavy rains last week from System..see daily rainfall of last week of July in Vagaries North...and Goa Update in Vagaries Goa


July 2015  has turned out to be the 3rd driest July on record for Mumbai Santa Cruz...

This July (2015) saw 360 mms of rain, 286 mms in 1986 and the previous lowest was in 2002 at 103 mms.
Mumbai Colaba measured only 281 mms in July 2015. Though it is not a record...Lowest was a meagre 103 mms in 2002

Marathwada too is suffering from extreme scarcity...Aurangabad has seen only 14 mms this July. But this is not far, or negligible from the record low which was 11 mms in 1971.

Parbhani measured only 21 mms this year, but this not far, the lowest driest July on record was 15 mms in 1971.

Maharashtra Monsoon: 1st June - 31st July 2015

Tabulation by Vagarian Puneet 

Friday 30th July Post (Night)...We have crossed 9.00,000 Hits .Thanks to All Vagarians 

BB-3, now a depression at 992 mb, is positioned in SE Bangladesh. Likely to track W/NW and weaken. Should weaken to 1000 mb by Sunday. 

An new embedded Low in the axis is likely to form in Central India by around 3rd/4th August.

As the erstwhile system in Rajasthan merges with the Monsoon axis, the Western end of the axis rapidly moves Northwards. Due to BB-3, the slope Eastwards of the axis is steep, sloping SE.

Friday 31st and Saturday 1st August..Heavy showers are likely in Kashmir, H.P. and Uttarakhand, Western U.P. and in Western Nepal. 
Rains increasing in both Punjabs on 1st August and continue on Sunday 2nd. 
(Gujrat in Pak Punjab gets increasing precipitation from Saturday. Saturday and Sunday showers will measure around 20 mms per day).

Heavy showers in Chattisgarh. Jharkhand and West Bengal.

Rainfall increasing (due to sectoral strengthening of the off shore trough) in South Konkan and Goa and Coastal Karnataka from Friday and effective thru till Monday.

Mumbai City: Friday and Saturday will see occasional showers, almost at regular intervals, and maybe accompanied with thunder. Friday may see around 25 mms and Saturday 20-25 mms. Sunday will see some sunny spells, with lesser frequency of showers, maybe around 15 mms.
Pune: Light drizzles in some areas, otherwise partly cloudy. 

Southern Punjab Region (Malout) will see a chance of rain on Friday, maybe around the region. Saturday will see more showers, with thunder, around 15 mms in the area. Sunday will be cloudy like Saturday with showers increasing to round 25-30 mms.

Kolkata: Having seen BB-3 weaken, and spread out its rain bands, the rain estimate for Kolkata needs revision. Showers on Friday & Saturday would average around 40-50 mms accumulated for the 2 days, and decreasing on Sunday.

Delhi NCR: Starting Friday, rains would be increasing on Saturday and more on Sunday. Chance of thunder showers on Saturday evening and Sunday, with cloudy skies and regular showers in the NCR.

Nagpur sees welcome rains starting from Sunday. Regular showers, some heavy can commence on Sunday and lead to heavy rains (40-50 mms) on Monday.
While Bangalore sees good chances of a thunder shower on Friday, Saturday, Hyderabad sees not much of rains this weekend.

North Konkan towns (Pen, Roha etc) will get passing showers amounting to 20-25 mms per day on Friday and Saturday, with rain intensity decreasing on Sunday.

Sudden Spurt of Unusual rains in Gujarat ..Bhuj and Ahmedabad Diagrams...See Current weather Page

See BB-3 making Landfall in Post Below..

Posted Thursday Evening:
"Cyclone Komen" has crossed the Southern Coast of Bangladesh Thursday late afternoon.

Moving North currently, it has weakened  

will track N/NW  soon as it encounters the STR.

Kolkata has received 14 mms till 5.30 pm IST .
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------Posted Thursday Noon:
IMD has announced BB-3 as a cyclone, due to "Intense low pressure system represented on a synoptic chart by more than four closed isobars at  2 hPa interval."
The cyclone Komen (BB-3), now formed lies 95 kms South West of Chittagong (Bangladesh), and around 300 kms East-South East from Kolkata.
And the Monsoon winds have helped in the formation of strong South quadrant convection and strong winds in the southern quadrant.Estimated core winds at 40 knts (International reading) and estimated core pressure at 989/990 mb.
 
Landfall would be on target, by Thursday (Today) afternoon at the Bangladesh Southern Coast. Heavy rains along Bangladesh and W.Bengal coast as well as Odisha coast, with winds around 40-50 kmph.
 
The initial track is North (briefly) and then track would then be W.NW , and weakening would start as explained last night.

Posted Wednesday Night:

BB-3 a deep depression, lay almost in the same position , South off the coast of Bangladesh. Estimated core winds are 35 knts, and estimated core pressure at 990 mb. Very strong convective bands seen in Souther Quadrant.

Initially now, BB-3 will move North, into Bangladesh. Subsequently, it will move NW, due to interaction with Sub Tropical Ridge. This will start pushing in (comparatively) dry air around the system, and due to land interface, BB-3 will weaken gradually over West Bengal.

Expecting increasing rains in Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha. 

Kolkata will get frequent showers, some prolonged and heavy with gusty winds from Thursday thru Saturday.
Would expect accumulated rainfall amounting to 130-150 mms Thursday -Saturday.

Bhubaneshwar too would get frequent intensity rains, amounting to 80-100 mms from Thursday night thru Saturday.

Last 3 days rain totals after the downpour in Gujarat (compiled by Gaurav Raninga).

See Mumbai Page for Mumbai Water Storage and availability.