4th August Post:

Forecasts show a Surprise La Niña Return ahead of Winter 2025/2026, bringing seasonal Weather impacts

By AuthorAndrej Flis

• Current Status:

  ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present, with sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific remaining near average. 

La Niña Effect on India 

1.La Nina can influence the formation and intensity of cyclones in the Bay. 

2.Colder Winters:

 La Niña often brings colder-than-normal winters to northern India, with increased western disturbances and stronger westerly winds, Potentially leading to frost and cold waves.

 

Posted onWe are currently in a neutral phase, coming out of a weak La Niña from the last Winter. But while the oceans are currently calm, the latest forecasts show something stirring for the Fall and Winter seasons.

Latest forecasts show a surprising return of La Niña, expected to emerge during the Fall season as a weak to moderate event. Early predictions already show a possible impact on seasonal weather patterns, especially during Winter 2025/2026.

This is a surprising shift, considering most forecasts earlier this year showed a neutral phase, with even some signs of an El Niño. But the atmosphere seems to play a different weather game.

The cold ENSO phase is called La Niña, and the warm phase is El Niño. Besides the temperatures, one of the main differences between the phases is the pressure patterns they develop, seen below as high (H) and low (L) pressure zones in the Pacific.

During a La Niña, the pressure is higher over the region, creating stable conditions and fewer storms over the equatorial Pacific. These pressure changes translate into global circulation over time, affecting seasonal weather over both Hemispheres.