Outlook from Monday 18th August to Thursday 21st August - Vigorous monsoon conditions over the country!

BB-8 weakened over Vidarbha region and its remnants lie over Gujarat...new low BB-9 forms off north AP coast, likely to become a depression as it tracks west across Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.

A shear zone at 700 hPa passes across Maharashtra from BB-9 and towards north Konkan/south Gujarat coast, with wind convergence close to the coast. 

A mid level vortex around 600-700 hPa can develop from this shear zone by 18th evening (called as Mid-tropospheric cyclone in technical terms). This can give very heavy rains across north Konkan/south Gujarat in a span of 24-36 hours. 

Monday 11.30

Mumbai: Heavy to very heavy rains expected on 18th,19th and 20th August - combined total could exceed 250 to 400 mm on average for the city/suburbs. Gusty winds at times, mainly on 20th and 21st. Rain intensity could reduce from 21st. Gusty westerly winds with moderate-heavy showers likely on 21st August. Interior Konkan and Ghats to also receive heavy rains with strong westerlies. 

There is a chance of localized very heavy rains from Alibaug to Dahanu/Valsad stretch of the north konkan coast from 18th evening to 19th night, with possibility of 24 hour rainfall exceeding 200 mm in few places. 

Pune: Moderate rains from 18th to 21st August. Initially light rains on 18th and intensity increasing from 19th. Gusty winds at times and cooler weather possible on 20th/21st. The combined total of 4 days can be around 40-60 mm. Chances of heavier rains towards Ghats on the outskirts of Pune city/suburbs. 

Konkan region: Heavy rains expected across Raigad, Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg districts this week. Many places likey to receive up to or above 200 mm till Thursday. 

Ghats of Maharashtra: Most hill stations likely to receive very heavy rains along with gusty winds - can get above 100 mm almost daily till 20th/21st August. 

Marathwada and Vidarbha: Overall, moderate rains expected on 18th and 19th August with cumulative 40-80 mm on average across the regions. Few localized regions may get closer to 100 mm rainfall (heavier near Nanded, Washim, Hingoli and parts of Latur, Beed and Jalna districts). Rain intensity likely to reduce from 20th August. 

Gujarat: Under the influence of remnants of BB-8 and BB-9, rainy weather is likely till 21st August. Very heavy rains are expected from 19th to 21st August as BB-9 mostly as a depression intensity system travels across the state. Parts of Saurashtra could see some flooding. Many places to receive above 250-300 mm rain in these 4 days, with few areas recording in excess of 400 mm. 

Valsad/Surat: Heavy to very heavy rains on 19th-20th August. 

Ahmedabad/Gandhinagar/Baroda/Bharuch: Moderate-Heavy rains on 19th-20th August

Saurashtra: Very heavy to extremely heavy rains on 19th-20th and heavy in western parts on 21st August.

Kutch: Heavy rains on 20th/21st August.

Heavy rains expected on 18th and 19th across parts of western Himalayan states and UTs - Jammu, Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.