29th May 2022

A)..IMD today, has advanced Monsoon into Kerala:

Justification: 

>The strength of the westerly winds have increased over southeast Arabian Sea and is about 15-20kts (25-35kmph). 

> Cloudiness over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining areas of Kerala have increased and the average outgoing long wave radiation(OLR) is about 189.7 W/M2 (thus <200 W/M2 ).

B)..Vagaries would still wait for the SWM entry into Kerala...maybe in 1st Week of June.

Justification:

> Above IMD criteria are correct, but weak ,as

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South West Monsoon will evade from Kerala Latitude till 4th June at least...Hence no further progress expected next 4/5 days...

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Mumbai: Partly Cloudy, Humid and very stuffy. Real feel temperatures around 38c, even though the recorded will be around 34/35c....Light rainfall in patches in parts of city will add to the discomfort...No change till 5th June....Proper Monsoon not before 13th June.

Pune: Hot at 34/35c, with clouds forming after Noon..thundery developments after 1st June possible.

Goa: No direct Monsoon approach expected till 10th June...some scattered showers in parts only.

Marathwada: Will be dry and hot and temperatures around 38c. next 7 days...thunder clouds may develop after 4th June...Monsoon still not arriving before 13th at least ..Hold back sowing operations.

मराठवाडा: पुढील 7 दिवस कोरडे आणि उष्ण आणि तापमान 38 अंशाच्या आसपास राहील... 4 जूननंतर मेघगर्जनेचे ढग निर्माण होऊ शकतात... किमान 13 तारखेपूर्वी मान्सूनचे आगमन होणार नाही.. पेरणीची कामे थांबवा.

Vidharbh: Hot and dry at around 40c or above. No major change till 3rd June.

Vidharbh: सुमारे 40c किंवा त्यापेक्षा जास्त तापमान ,गरम आणि कोरडे. ३ जूनपर्यंत कोणताही मोठा बदल नाही.