Post of Saturday 19th:
BB -3 , WML, mentioned now in Vagaries.
Expect to move Northwards now
Vagarian Vineet Kumar ( Fellow Researcher, IITM) says
"Although imd expecting cyclone in bay of bengal in next few days
However ocean not very supportive for intensification of system
TCHP less than 40kjcm2 over most of central, north bay where the system expected to track. In such low tchp system may not intensify
SST in range 27-28c in central, north bay.
I think system may intensify max to deep depression and imd-gfs is currently over estimating the forecasted intensity of the system
It might be good that no strong cyclone will form as there r incidences when cyclone induced subsidence over india amplify the heatwave over the region.
Latest such example was during cyclone Fani"