Sunday, August 29, 2021

Posted 29th August Night:

BB-9 Location on Sunday Night:

BB-9 movement expected W/NW. 

Rainfall Outlook for the Week 30th Monday - 3rd September Thursday:

Rains expected on 

Monday 30th to increase and move into West M.P. (East M.P. getting rains now), and Vidharbh and parts of Maratwada.

Tuesday 31st, Rainfall increases in Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra (Pune/Nasik) and parts of Gujarat Region. West M.P. and Eastern Rajasthan continue to get showers.

Wednesday 1st; Heavy rains expected in North Konkan (Mumbai) and North Madhya Maharashtra ( Nasik).

Wednesday 1st & Thursday 2nd September: Rains also expected in Gujarat Region and all parts of Saurashtra.

Kutch will expect on 2nd & 3rd  moderate showers. Much needed in this maybe last major spell for kutch.


Mumbai: The (almost ) dry spell expected to end with some rains (with possible thunder) on Tuesday 31st (getting around 25-50 mms on Tuesday).. Next week, Intermittent showers will continue on 1st and 2nd September.

Pune: almost dry spell to end, by Pune standards from Monday evening. Next week, 31stTuesday thru 2nd Thursday, Pune will see moderate showers with cool weather.

Aurangabad Region: Rainfall expected on Monday and more rains on Tuesday 31st August. Rainfall continues till Thursday, daily 10-25 mms). Cool weather. Good for standing crops and corn crop.

औरंगाबाद विभाग: सोमवारी पाऊस अपेक्षित आहे आणि मंगळवार 31 ऑगस्ट रोजी अधिक पाऊस होईल. पाऊस गुरुवारपर्यंत सुरू राहील, (दररोज 10-25 मिमी). थंड हवामान. उभे पिके आणि मका पिकासाठी चांगले.

Surat: Rains likely from Monday 30th evening, with heavy showers on Tuesday 31st. Moderate to heavy rains on 1st also. Cumulative Monday - Wednesday could be  45-80 mms.

Bharuch: Good to moderate showers in Bharuch from 30th Monday thru Thursday 2nd September.

Saurashtra & Junagadh region will get fairly good rains (15-30 mms/day) on 31st, 1st and 2nd Sept.

સુરત: સોમવાર 30 મી સાંજથી વરસાદની સંભાવના છે, મંગળવારે 31 મીએ ભારે વરસાદ પડશે. 1 લીએ પણ મધ્યમથી ભારે વરસાદ. કુલ સોમવાર - બુધવાર 45-80 એમએમએસ હોઈ શકે છે.

ભરૂચ: ભરૂચમાં 30 મી સોમવારથી ગુરુવાર 2 જી સપ્ટેમ્બર સુધી સારોથી મધ્યમ વરસાદ.

સૌરાષ્ટ્રમાં 31, 1 અને 2 સપ્ટેમ્બરે સારો વરસાદ (15-30 મીમી/દિવસ) થશે

Indore: Moderate rains on Monday 30th , but Heavy rains in Indore on 31st Tuesday, with the moderate showers on Wednesday.


Tanmay srivastav said...

2nd thing tumhe sirf Maharashtra & mp & gujrat pyara hae kya 🤔 month me mushkil se 1,2 din Northwest, East& northeast india par karte ho baki 25,26 din wahi central india bas. Maharashtra getting wetter to ye to wo
July me bol rahe the ab august me posts nahi aa rahi ek bhi

NilaY Wankawala said...

Vagaries awarded top 35 best weather blogs in the world. Great team work, near to perfect forecasting and so many followers all over the world with so many hits.... statistics speaks for itself....

sset said...

Mumbai maha flooding torrential rains. Looks like dump of 200mm

NilaY Wankawala said...

Credit Australian Government Bureau of metereology latest issued 31 08 2021
Issued 31 August 2021

The latest Climate Driver Update and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

Tropical Pacific Ocean likely to cool, but remain ENSO-neutral

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central tropical Pacific Ocean are near average, despite slowly cooling over the past two months. Waters beneath the surface are slightly cooler than average.

While most models indicate SSTs in the central tropical Pacific are likely to continue cooling over the coming months, ENSO-neutral is favoured to persist. Only two of the seven models surveyed suggest SSTs will remain cool for long enough to be considered a La Niña event. This cooling of the tropical Pacific may be contributing to the wetter than median climate outlooks in Australia.

Most climate models predict the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event will persist through the southern hemisphere spring, despite current values rising marginally above the −0.4 °C threshold. Stronger-than-usual easterly winds across the tropical eastern Indian Ocean over the last three weeks have weakened the IOD event, however, this is most likely to be temporary. A majority of the five climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict the negative IOD will persist into November. A negative IOD increases the chance of above average winter–spring rainfall for much of southern and eastern Australia.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the western Indian Ocean, where it has remained since early August. This phase of the MJO typically sees increased cloudiness over the Southeast Asian parts of the Maritime Continent and eastern Indian Ocean, along with enhanced easterly wind anomalies, which may have acted to weaken the negative IOD. Forecasts generally indicate a weak MJO will progress eastwards across the Indian Ocean in the coming week.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index has been positive over the past week and is forecast to remain so for the next fortnight. A positive SAM typically has a drying influence on south-west and south-east Australia during winter, and enhances chances of above average rainfall over much of New South Wales during spring.

Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climate. Australia's climate has warmed by 1.44 ± 0.24 °C over 1910–2019, while southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades.

More information

Media enquiries: (03) 9669 4057

Next update expected on 14 September 2021

Laxman said...

Sir any hope for Bhuj Kutch in next round

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