vagaries© of the weather.blog written by rajesh kapadia.concentrating on meteorology of the Indian sub continent and extreme world weather since 55 years For Any Information taken from here, due credit must be given to Vagaries.
Tuesday, August 03, 2021
औरंगाबाद जिल्ह्यात पुढील 4 दिवस (3rd - 6th) कमी पाऊस पडेल. वादळी हवामान. तापमान अधिक गरम होईल. पिकांची काळजी घ्या
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30th May..2023..South West Monsoon establishing over S.Andamans 30th Winds Charts👇
The low, has literally "whizzed" past,and thru the central regions, and by saturday night, is already over south Rajasthan/Gujarat...
Credit Australian Government Bureau of metereology latest issued 03 08 2021
Issued 3 August 2021
The latest Climate Driver Update and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.
Negative Indian Ocean Dipole event continues
The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues. A negative IOD increases the chances of above average winter–spring rainfall for much of southern and eastern Australia. It also increases the chances of cooler than average days in southern Australia for winter–spring, and warmer than average nights across northern Australia.
The most recent weekly IOD index value is −0.76 °C, with warmer than average waters in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean, and average to cooler than average waters in the western tropical Indian Ocean. Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict negative IOD conditions are likely to persist throughout spring.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral with most oceanic and atmospheric indicators within the neutral range. While pressure patterns show some La Niña-like characteristics, as indicated by the latest Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) 30-day value of +15.1, it is likely that some of this shift in pressure is driven from warm conditions in the eastern Indian Ocean. Most climate model outlooks indicate the central tropical Pacific is likely to cool over the coming months, with three of seven models surveyed by the Bureau indicating this cooling will be enough to reach La Niña thresholds in spring, with the remaining four models staying neutral. Along with the negative IOD, this may be contributing to the wetter than median climate outlooks in Australia.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index has recently been positive, but is forecast to return to neutral levels in the coming days, and remain so for at least the next fortnight. A neutral SAM has little influence on Australian climate.
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the Western Hemisphere. Most climate models indicate the MJO will move towards Africa over the coming week, although climate models indicate the strength of the MJO could range from moderate to weak. An MJO near Africa typically means below average cloudiness and rainfall across much of much of India and parts of southeast Asia.
Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climate. Australia's climate has warmed by 1.44 ± 0.24 °C over 1910–2019, while southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades.
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Next update expected on 17 August 2021
Sir when will monsoon revive in coastal karnataka?
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