Chances of CYCLONE FANI FORMing IN Southern BAY OF BENGAL
Today, a cyclogenisis initial stage is seen as cyclonic circulation over extreme Southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean.
A Low is likely to form in the Southern Bay South East of Sri Lanka, around 5N and 90E, by 25th April. That is BB-2 ...Models are indicating that the system would be initially moving in northwest direction. It is likely to get more marked during the next 24 hours from 25th and would be inducing a low pressure area by April 25.
BB-2 is to intensify into a Depression and track North West. Favourable atmospheric conditions would be further enhancing the strength of the depression.
1. Sea Surface Temperatures: Currently in favourable SST at 30c, but can go into cooler waters after 15N.
2. Vertical wind shear helping the system initially.
3. MJO (Madden–Julian oscillation): It is another key factor as movement of MJO through Indian Ocean at this time would lead to enhanced conditions for sustenance and rapid deepening of BB-2
This may turn into a deep depression and finally into a tropical storm in the subsequent three days i.e. April 29.
Season’s first cyclonic storm is most likely to be formed and be active.
When BB-2 strengthens into a cyclonic storm, it would be named as ‘Fani’
Though it is early to talk about the track of the likely storm, but we can see that there is no consensus among the numerical weather models. Two possible tracks as per Vagaries. System fizzles out at the end of the track...Due to STR resistance
In both the scenarios, Tamil Nadu and Chennai would see rains and thundershowers . Scenario 1 would give some torrential rains over Tamil Nadu including Chennai but in scenario 2, the state would see light to moderate rains only.