Tuesday, August 01, 2017



MONSOON REPORT (01-6-2017 TO 31-7-2017)    
TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL (as on 31-7-2017)   460.20
SEASON +/-   1.63%
TO ACHIEVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER          required rainfall per day------->      mm
MINIMUM                              700   mm   3.93
AVERAGE                                890   mm   7.05
MAXIMUM                          1100   mm   10.49
CURRENT RAINFALL PER DAY    7.54 mm
HIGHEST RAINFALL DAY THIS SEASON                          24th JULY 14.7 mm
LOWEST RAINFALL DAY THIS SEASON                            5th   JUNE 1.2 mm
TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS MONTH      mm
KONKAN & GOA   1092.50
COASTAL KARNATAKA   824.20
GUJARAT REGION   611.80
JHARKHAND   489.40
GANGETIC WEST BENGAL   488.60
BOTTOM FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS MONTH       mm
MARATHWADA   83.10
N. I. KARNATAKA   77.30
HAR. CHD & DELHI   69.20
RAYALASEEMA   52.20
TAMILNADU & PONDICHERY   42.00
TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS ABOVE NORMAL (1-6-2017 to 31-7-2017)           Actual (mm)   
WEST RAJASTHAN                                                                                                                         301.6 127.00%
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH                                                                                                               451 64.00%
GUJARAT REGION                                                                                                                         749.1 59.00%
EAST RAJASTHAN                                                                                                                          382.4 33.00%
JAMMU & KASHMIR                                                                                                                    336.9 31.00%
BOTTOM FIVE SUBDIVISIONS BELOW NORMAL (1-6-2017 to 31-7-2017)  Actual (mm)  
WEST UTTAR PRADESH                                                                                                                260.7 -21.00%
TAMILNADU & PONDICHERY                                                                                                       89.9 -21.00%
ARUNACHAL PRADESH                                                                                                                811.6 -22.00%
KERALA                                                                                                                                             959.5 -30.00%
S. I. KARNATAKA                                                                                                                            235.2 -34.00%
TOP TEN DISTRICTS THIS MONTH   mm
SIROHI (rajasthan)   1568.5
EAST KHASI HILLS (meghalaya)   1435.7
DADAR & NAGAR HAVELI (union territory)   1295.6
VALSAD (gujarat)   1278
RAIGARH (maharashtra)   1256.8
PALGHAR (maharashtra)   1235
UDUPI (karnataka)   1153.2
THANE (maharashtra)   1151
RATNAGIRI (maharashtra)   1092.9
LUNGLEI (mizoram)   1078
BOTTOM TEN DISTRICTS THIS MONTH   mm
PERAMBALUR (tamil nadu)   12.5
FIROZPUR (punjab)   12.3
ERODE (tamil nadu)   12.3
DINDIGUL (tamil nadu)   10
TIRUPPUR (tamil nadu)   9.4
YAMUNANAGAR (harayana)   6.9
LEH AND LADAKH (Jammu & kashmir)   6.2
TIRUNELVELI (tamil nadu)   5.3
TUTICORIN (tamil nadu)   1.9
SAIHA (mizoram)   0
TOP TEN DISTRICTS ABOVE NORMAL (1-6-2017 TO 31-7-2017)                Actual (mm)  
JALOR (rajasthan)                                                                                                                          840.8 330.00%
SIROHI (rajasthan)                                                                                                                      1655.9 310.00%
BANASKANTHA (gujarat)                                                                                                          1016.6 259.00%
BARMER (rajasthan)                                                                                                                     414.6 257.00%
PALI (rajasthan)                                                                                                                             662.4 202.00%
PATAN (gujarat)                                                                                                                             792.7 201.00%
GANDHINAGAR (gujarat)                                                                                                            960.1 172.00%
MORBI (gujarat)                                                                                                                              738 165.00%
JAISELMER (rajasthan)                                                                                                                 204.9 160.00%
SURENDRANAGAR (gujarat)                                                                                                      683.2 160.00%
BOTTOM TEN DISTRICTS BELOW NORMAL (1-6-2017 TO 31-7-2017)                        Actual (mm)  
DHARAMPURI (tamil nadu)                                                                                                          42.5 -68.00%
CHAMARAJANAGAR (karnataka)                                                                                                36.6 -72.00%
PANCHKULA (harayana)                                                                                                               117 -73.00%
FIROZPUR (punjab)                                                                                                                         39.5 -75.00%
SENAPATI (manipur)                                                                                                                        170 -77.00%
THOUBAL (manipur)                                                                                                                        102 -80.00%
SAIHA (mizoram)                                                                                                                             154 -81.00%
DIBANG VALLEY (arunachal pradesh)                                                                                       106 -84.00%
TUTICORIN (tamil nadu)                                                                                                                 3.1 -87.00%
TAWANG (arunachal pradesh)                                                                                                     149 -89.00%
TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2017 to 31-7-2017)      37 (61%)
TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE DAYS (1-6-2017 to 31-7-2017)      24 (39%)
source: IMD

28 comments:

GSB said...

Thanks Rajesh Sir, Rohit and others for your comments on the previous blog post. I did that particular exercise just to highlight that comparing any two zones short term is self defeating because long term data can be used to prove otherwise. As the data suggests, SKI and K&G have a statistical relationship (they might not be linked to the same subsystem of monsoon but are part of the same seasonal phenomenon that starts in June and impacts the entire Indian subcontinent up to September). The very fact that a percentage relationship holds across three centuries (from the late 19th to early 21st century) shows that there is some significance to the comparison (Abhijit totally disagrees though :) ).

I request the readers of this blog to search for data of the district level of SI Karnataka and the Ghat sections of K&G , Madhya Maharashtra and Coastal Karnataka. The data needs to be of at least 50 years or even more to get a meaningful analysis going between the ghats and the plains of south and western India.

Please provide link to such data online in the comments or copy paste it in text format here.

Gurvinder

Ron said...

Thanks for the data gsb sir

Abhijit said...

GSB Sir, As usual excellent analysis of Monsoon July figures.

Yes, me disagrees because Konkan vs SI.Kar is not logical way for analyzing. As technically monsoon windward vs leeward comparison can't be possible so it is insult of Konkan indirectly ! but ya due to sset's always useless comparison between both divisions, we needed it to demolish his own theory by presenting facts to him.

And yes Maharashtra ghat vs Karnataka ghat or Konkan vs Coastal Kar comparison looks valid as both are windward west coast region and also top performer sub divisions in monsoon season to know whether really one's rain increasing or decreasing

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Amazing!Rajasthan district on top of rainfall chart

rohit aroskar said...

Nice Analysis..

Mount Abu (Sirohi district),the hill station of Rajasthan .. This time it notched up around 3000 mms in July (1500 mms in 2 days )!! But it is also a part of rainfall variability of the state ..

In the Thar desert, the highest annual rainfall has been at Sam (Jaisalmer)..1304 mms in 1973 and the lowest annual rainfall has been in the same Jaisalmer district at Ramgarh .. 2 mms( u read it correct) in 1969 !!

The state is prone to extreme rainfall spells ..In the Thar desert , Barmer had recorded 312 mms on 8 Aug 1990 and 300 mms at Bilara on 31 July 1999..

Evewrest said...

Lunglei district, Mizoram - 1078mm in July and Saiha district, Mizoram - 0mm in July?? How did that happen?

Evewrest said...

Just did some calculations.. North West India, Central India and East & North East India all had higher than normal rainfall in July. However, Southern peninsula was 36% below normal for the month of July.

In fact, in the southern peninsula only Coastal AP and A&N Islands had anywhere close to normal rains in July. The remaining area encompassing Telangana, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala (with an area of more than 540,000 sq km) had a deficit of more than 40% in July.

Other swathes that received less rainfall in July - Marathwada and Vidarbha in Central India; West UP, Haryana, Punjab and HP in North West India and Arunachal, Assam, Meghalaya, Sikkim and SHWB in North East India.

Areas receiving excess rainfall in July - State of Gujarat in Central India; State of Rajasthan in North West India and Jharkhand and Gangetic WB in East India.

Cumulus Arjun said...

Evewrest- even Konkan goa/Mumbai region received good rainfall in July

Cumulus Arjun said...

Rajesh sir, when will break monsoon conditions end in Mumbai?

Vijayanand said...

Some rain in goregoan Mumbai last evening at 5.00 pm and 7.30 pm. No rain this morning.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Hard and Painstaking efforts GSB sir as ever- you release figures so quickly- Indeed this table gonna to be remembered for Rajashthan featuring in-

Cumulus Arjun said...

A short heavy shower ar 10:00 in Goregaon Mumbai

Evewrest said...

Actually for the whole of K&G, July rain was about 2% below normal. But within the region, I think the northern portion (Palghar, Thane and Raigarh districts) got excess rainfall, whereas south of Raigarh (Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg and Goa), it got progressively worse.

It would be interesting to see how the ghats faired all along the west coast. I think you would see a similar picture. Excess rainfall for northern Maha ghats, middle and southern Maha should be somewhere normal, but as we go south into Karnataka ghats and Wayanad and Idukki in Kerala, it just gets worse.

Shripad Nadiger said...

The rains have almost vanished from Mumbai , apart from the occasional sharp spells there has been no meaningful rains.With no systems near by its going to be sometime before we see anything.

sset said...

Exactly Evewrest - 3/4th of southern India is in drought which is getting worse than 2016. Your observations are correct - hope Abhijitji may agree....

Junaid said...

Panvel received 1105 mm of rainfall in July spanning 30 rainy days. The normal for Panvel during July is 1129 mm, hence the rainfall received was Normal.
The seasonal total for Panvel stands at 1998 mm till 8:30 am today

Vijayanand said...

Sset you stated rains in Mumbai going to exceed Mangalore. As of now it appears like no big deluge over Mumbai. So how is it going to happen. Your desire and weather forecasting are two different things. Sset, you are just forecasting your desire and not weather.

Evewrest said...

I would wait for some time before I start using the term drought. My analysis was only for the month of July. June was not bad for South Peninsula, although SIK was deficient in June. But there are 2 more months to go in the monsoon.

It's true that both the SM and NEM failed for southern peninsula last year. Which makes it critical for these areas to get decent rain this time around. However, we would really have to look at least 10-20 yrs of data before we can start saying anything about desertification.

But surely there are other areas in the country which face chronic shortage of rainfall. Marathwada is a prime example. It seems to be easy for the NW plains belt of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, West UP to be deficient during the monsoon period. I have just looked at the past 5 yrs data. Maybe it was different earlier. I think there has been some study done by IMD on the long term trends in rainfall for all the subdivisions in the country. It would be interesting to have a read.

Abhijit said...

While making this analysis post, TN & PDC subdivision was -21% in deficit but in last 2 days due to good rains over it now Tamilnadu comes in normal category with just -1% of deviation

Abhijit said...

On other hand half Maharashtra in drought like situation as Marathwada(-24%) & Vidarbha(-22%) sub division slips into deficit zone !!

Water situation grim in those region as many dams on minimum level even after of 2 months of monsoon has passed away ! Nagpur region having just 19 % water availability & Amaravati region having only 22% water storage as on today !!

Due to June good pre SWM rain in Marthawada & Vidarbha was showing normal category but now no rain for month so has slipped in deficit statistically also !



http://www.huffingtonpost.in/village-square/maharashtra-farmers-fear-loss-of-kharif-harvest-blame-met-depar_a_23041487/

Deepak Kotian said...

Rajesh Sir what are the weekend forecaste for Mumbai and outer mumbai

sunny fernandes said...

I pray september should perform better for maharashtra ...
As monsoon starts withdrawing from raj....
I pray the lows from the bay should strike maharashtra n konkan ...

rohit aroskar said...

Tamhini ghat (located in northern ghats of Maharashtra..80 kms from Mumbai)..
Tamhini averages 6,498 mm during the monsoon(1975-2013) and on an average beats Cherrapunji 2 times in 10 years ..

Other monsoon (Jun-Sep ) averages.. Mawsynram (8,864mm) and Cherrapunji (8,633mm) in Northeast, and in the Western Ghat regions of Amboli (7,071mm) in Maharashtra and Agumbe (6,866mm) in Karnataka..

rohit aroskar said...

Western ghats on an average receive more rains than Cherrapunji 4 out of 10 SW Monsoons..
Out of that Maharashtra ghats receive more 2 out of 10 and Karnataka/ Kerala ghats 2 out of 10 ..

Junaid said...

Nice statistics Rohit .

Nilay Wankawala said...

Abhijit and Rohit some really interesting facts and figures pouring in from both of you enriching knowledge of readers of this blog

Vijith Menon said...

Rajesh Sir - waiting for your forecast as rain has fully dried up in and around Mumbai area.
When can we expect the next wave of heavy rains.

Vijayanand said...

As per gfs rain increasing in Mumbai on 9th and 10th. Then again a week of dry spell. BTW today is totally dry. The 3 min burst missing today.