Tuesday, August 29, 2017



Posted Tuesday Night:

The Mumbai Rain fury is over....much reduced rains on Wednesday , and amount may not exceed even 30-45 mms. Winds may continue. Thursday will be partly cloudy and brighter.

Surat: A few sharp showers could be expected on Wednesday.
Heavy thunder showers expected in Saurashtra on Wednesday..Rajkot may reach 100 mms.

Karachi: Gear up for some heavy thunder  showers from Wednesday...increasing on Thursday...City can expect 80-90 mms next 3 days.

After the passing of BB-8 system, we may see the Withdrawal signs from the Sindh Pakistan and Western Rajasthan regions. We may see the development of the initial formation of an  anti cyclone and changes in the jet streams commencing from 3rd/4th September.

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Posted Tuesday Evening:
BB-8 , which formed in the Bay, now lies as a Well Marked Low ( 996 mb) entrenched in a small East West trough (998mb)  around North Maharashtra/Adjoining MP. 

We had mentioned of its deepening possibility over Land, which it will and track as mentioned towards Kutch. 
Heavy rains expected in Western parts of Saurashtra and Kutch and parts of Coastal Sindh from Wednesday.

Meanwhile very heavy rains lashed Mumbai as a result of a SW inflow towards deepening system. With strong winds as predicted, Scruz got 316  mms rain till 8.30 pm in 12 hrs.
Other gauges in Mumbai saw this 12 hrs rainfall on Tuesday: Dadar (Salil) 325 mms,  SCruz 316  mms, Milan Subway 290 mms, Kings Circle 278 mms,  Andheri 275 mms, Bhandup 232 mms, Goregaon 212 mms, Borivali 187 mms, Mumbai Central 175 mms,  CST 143 mms, Colaba(AWS) 104 mms.

to continue....
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Dadar (Salil ) measures 165 mms in 5 hrs from 8.30 am Tuesday.



some overnight rains in Mumbai till 8.30 am 24 hrs: Afghan Church Colaba 165 mms, CST 160 mms, Colaba IMD 152 mms, Mantralaya 138 mms, Bhandup 126 mms, Mulund East 114 mms, Ghatkopar 113 mms, King's Circel 95 mms, Matunga 95 mms, Scruz IMD 88 mms,

45 comments:

parshuram shinde said...

Flooded in santacruz

Vinod Desai said...

Heavy rain in south gujarat vapi valsad belt..

emkay said...

R u bracing for a 2005 repeat. I doubt it tho high tide 4.30 PM

parshuram shinde said...

Oncegain started heavy rain in santacruz. Its look like horrible...
AL over flooded in my area santacruz.

Hrishikesh said...

Pressure dropping 995mb currently extremely heavy rain with high winds in Andheri

SVT said...

Dadar todays rains going to go over 300mm at this rate. Historic.

Shripad Nadiger said...

Some serious rains happening now over Mumbai.. Mira Road (North mumbai).if this doesn't ease by evening we are staring at a flood situation.

Florence Khape said...

Most areas Completely flooded on Aarey Road goregoan ..tree fallen ..traffic stuck avoid Aarey Road

Shripad Nadiger said...

Rains have subsided considerably...but still very windy and dark here in Mira rd(North Mumbai)

KHYATI PANDIT said...

Some news of heavy rain to b in Mumbai which could exceed the rain of 2005...such messages are running out on many WhatsApp groups..sir plzzz guide us

Ishan Vajpeyi said...

Rajesh Sir, when do you expect the anticyclone to form in the Sindh/Rajasthan region and NW winds to take over in NW India?

ROHIT AROSKAR said...

Scz 298 mms in 9 hours tl 5.30 pm..
2.30 to 5.30 pm .. 172 mms (3 hours)

..upto 200 mms in 3 hrs during afternoon at Mumbai

ROHIT AROSKAR said...

Thane 150 mms in 1 hour

ameya pandit said...

Heavy rains with thunder and lightning in and around virar for past hour and half.

rajesh said...

For Latest see Flash Snippet

rajesh said...

Rohit : Thane 150 mms in an hour ?? Dadar took 6 hrs tot ouch 300 mms !

abizer Kachwala said...

Sir,it rained a lot,lot more than 210-220 in nagothane yesterday,I feel that measures to an extent are faulty..

ROHIT AROSKAR said...

Each station follows its own course..Thane followed it's own ..around 5 pm

sset said...

IMD mentioned about extreme rains 5 days before (with red/orange alert), ECMWF models predicted same with cyclonic depression a week before - still MAHA govt has not taken precautions and alertness... MAHA is becoming wetter every passing year, so is GUJ and RAJ but KAR, KER, TN, SAP are becoming drier... climate anomoly should be taken seriously.
IT took 6 hours for me to reach from powai to belapur... natures fury I have encountered first time .... beautiful Powai lake surrounded dense forest hills, overflowing, roads with waterfalls like water, torrential rains.....
Rainfall may soon touch 400mm by today/early tommorow.... extreme chunk happened in few hours.. belapur still torrential rains...
When will SWM withdraw? It seems another low is eagerly waiting to hit MAHA/GUJ

sset said...

IMD still predicts extreme rains for MAHA/GUJ tommorow

sset said...

Extreme numbers for GUJ tomorrow similar to July floods.... reminds me of sep 2013 GUJ floods just at time of monsoon withdrawl GUJ ran into floods - 3 digit figures for 10 days!

Shripad Nadiger said...

Rains in Mira Road have calmed down a bit as of now as Rajesh Sir's prediction. But is this a temporary pause or is there more going to come that needs to be seen.

Shripad Nadiger said...

The rains have started with moderate intensity since past 30 mins here in Mira rd (North Mumbai)

Ishan Vajpeyi said...

Rajesh Sir, please can you tell us when will the SWM withdrawal commence? When will the parameters essential for the withdrawal to commence shape up?

Shripad Nadiger said...

As per your forecast.. Rains have deceased drastically in the past hour or so.

mehul pambhar said...

Thanks for mentioning Rajkot in forecast sir. Its raining in gujarat since last two days.

Florence Khape said...

Raining heavily in Goregaon since past 30 min

Vinod Desai said...

It has started raining again..last half hour.

Shripad Nadiger said...

It rained moderately in mira road for about an hour..but it has stopped completely.

parshuram shinde said...

No rain here santacruz.cool and overcast weather.

ROHIT AROSKAR said...

I stay 1 km from the IMD SCZ station at Andheri ..
It received 331 mms during past 24 hrs ..
The major part during 2.30 pm to 5.30 pm..172 mms in 3 hrs..Wind gusts 70 kmph..
Localised flooding at some locations was observed during evening which subsided with the rains after 7 pm ..
There was no power outage, no food or water shortage ..Thanks for concerns

ROHIT AROSKAR said...

Mumbai Scz has received 600 mms in past 5 days ..Nearby Pen has received 760 mms in past 5 days

Shripad Nadiger said...

I might be wrong but the tail of the system that pounded Mumbai seems to be growing and coming near to the city as per the latest INSAT images. Does this mean we are in for rains again in the coming days. Need your inputs Rajesh sir.

sset said...

As Maharashtra,Gujarat battle with torrential rains and floods, drought,lack of rain in Karnataka cauvery,kerala - KAR govt prepares for cloud seeding

http://bangaloremirror.indiatimes.com/bangalore/others/cloud-seeding-the-flights-just-begun/articleshow/60281293.cms

sset said...

As of now Mumbai rain is same as Mangalore - next 1 spell Mumbai (SCZ) will overtake Mangalore!

Unknown said...

Rajesh thanks to you and the team for these regular updates. There was a likelihood of one more low forming over BOB right ? Is there any update on that and if so, will this travel east West all the way across ? More rains for Mumbai or Gujarat then ?

Suresh

rajesh said...

Suresh: We are now waiting for the passing away of BB-8...BB-8 will fizzle out near Oman. Then we have to wait and see the rapid/slow development of the withdrawal stage of the Monsoon. The criteria are 1. Formation of an anti cyclone at 850 hp level over Sindh 2. Jet streams changing direction (partly) 3. Water vapour decrease in the Thar/West Rajasthan region. 3. seasonal low weakening.
Now this will determine the position of the Monsoon axis.
BB-9 could form around 4th/5th September in the Northern Bay. The tracking direction depends on the axis position then.

Saurabh Dwivedi said...

As of today the six deficient sub divisions are and their deviations from normal are
West UP -37
Haryana -32
East MP -23
Vidarbha -23
Kerala -21
Punjab -20

Sharing this to put things in perspective.

Reminds of this quote "We only see what we want to see when we're ready to see it"

Unknown said...

Thanks Rajesh. Really appreciate your answer. Simply put, you help people understand the monsoon and it's complexity through such lucid replies and posts. Someone like me with a partial understanding of weather is able to enjoy the monsoon even more ! Thanks again.

Suresh

sunny fernandes said...

Heavy rains of 15mm lashed delhi after long time

Nilay Wankawala said...

C R F till 31 08 2017 all over India actual recorded 689 MM against a normal of 714.2 MM (51-2000) indicating % departure of negative - 3.5%.

Source is I M D.

Shivkumar Mogal said...

SWM toppers of Maharashtra till 31 Aug 2017 (Above 4500 mm)

Shirgaon (Chiplun) 7138 mm
Lamaj 6386 mm
Shirgaon ghat 5890 mm
Tamhini 5790 mm
Ambone 5550 mm
Davdi camp 5370 mm
Patharpunj 5251 mm
Dungerwadi 5160 mm
Kitwade 4919 mm
Lonavala 4889 mm
Mahabaleshwar 4856 mm
Walvan 4818 mm
Kalkawane 4789 mm
Kasari 4783 mm
Navaja 4735 mm
Amboli 4696 mm
Tapola 4635 mm
Matheran 4602 mm
Bhimashankar 4584 mm
Jor 4556 mm

Vijayanand said...

VERY HEAVY RAIN IN BANGALORE LATE LAST NIGHT.

GOTTIGERE: 116 mm
BEGUR: 111 mm
IMD : 70 MM
SARAKKI : 35 mm

GOTTGERE AT 843 mm for the year. Just 130 mm short of annual quota.

Cumulus Arjun said...

Some areas in Mumbai also reporting 468 mm on 29th August

Ishan Vajpeyi said...

Seems like another delay in the SWM withdrawal this year.