Thursday, August 17, 2017

Posted Thursday Night:

A UAC has formed off the Odisha coast, and the expected Low pressure, BB-7,  ( as estimated in  post of  13th Night  ) is likely to form there by 19th August.
We can expect the Monsoon axis to slide Southwards in the next 24 hrs. The BB-7, will then track along the Telengana/Vidharbh/North Maharashtra route from the 19th onwards.

Meanwhile heavy rains expected in Odisha and Telengana on 18th and in Telengana and adjoining Vidharbh on 19th/20th. Akola region can expect Good showers upto 20-25 mms/day on Saturday and Sunday
The much needed rainfall to Marathwada will occur on 20th . Heavy showers expected on Sunday and Monday in the region including Aurangabad. Cool day expected in Aurangabad on 20th.
The system gains a bit, and tracks across West M.P. and Northern Gujarat after 20th.

A bit early to say, but it seems the South West Monsoon withdrawal from the Western region and NW region will start earlier than normal date this year.

Weekend Estimate:
Mumbai: Weekend will be partly cloudy, with warm/hot days around 32c. Expect some sharp showers in some areas on Sunday. Rainfall maybe around 10-12 mms on Sunday. 
Outer townships around Panvel may get some heavy showers ( Maybe thunder) on Sunday.

Hyderabad will get showers, some heavy on Saturday and Sunday. Very cool days expected.
Delhi NCR: Days will get hotter by a couple of degrees on Friday/Saturday. Expected to be around 38/39c. Very warm nights...The isolated thunder shower likely on Sunday.
Jabalpur can expect thunder showers this weekend. Expecting some moderate showers. Jabalpur has received 689 mms of rain this season till 17th August. This is 113 mms short of normal. (14% deficit).
Good rainfall expected in Indore after Saturday for 2 days.
Weekend almost dry in Saurashtra.


Vinod Desai said...

Why you feel the monsoon withdrawal will be early for NW region.

Cumulus arjun said...

Also some heavy rains predicted during Ganesh chaturthi in Mumbai

Cumulus arjun said...

Also IMD has predicted BB-7 to give heavy rains over north Konkan

Unknown said...

I think most of the rain would be concentrated over thane,palghar&south gujarat districts

shiekhz said...

sir what for us??

Vijith Menon said...

Rajesh sir - hope bb7 will give Konkan and others areas, lakes heavy sustained rains else there would be huge deficiency

sset said...
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sset said...

Navi Mumbai very heavy rains entire night - impact of Bay low

sset said...

Torrential rains navi mumbai - looks like 24*7 rains... 100-200mm in store!

SVT said...

In my humble opinion Mumbai will get far more rains than Rajesh sir expects. Will you update rains for Mumbai soon?

Vinod Desai said...

It seems western suburbs are getting less rain compared to central suburbs i cqme ti ghatkoper and all water logged near station..veryheavy seems here

sset said...

GUJ (patent) style of rains over Mumbai/Navi Mumbai - 200-300mm torrential cyclonic downpours - looks like Bay has taken quick decision to reach Mumbai or west coast trough is super active!

sset said...
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Shri said...

Dark outside here in Mira Road (North Mumbai). Raining heavily here. I guess the weekend spell will cover up for the August deficit.

Unknown said...

This has been a remarkable sW monsoon. Covered the Western part initially, moved up North, came back to Central India (though the floods in Gujarat was unfortunate), then took a break which gave good rains to TN and South Karnataka and now revives back in West India and East India again. Delightful to see Nature at its wonderful best. SW Monsoon showing off all its brilliant colours . Let's enjoy it !!


 Map by Vag. Tejas...Source "Mah. Water Respources Dept" 2nd august 2021