Saturday, August 05, 2017

 SW MONSOON..1st HALF (JUN - JUL 2017) TOPPERS
 
FORECAST - The monsoon will be weak over West India including Mumbai for the next 3 days .. Absence of significant rains will cause warm and humid conditions at Mumbai (32 c / 27 c) ..
 
# Refer the previous post for Monsoon contest results
 
TABLE 1 - STATE WISE , TABLE 2 -MAHARASHTRA /KARNATAKA WESTERN GHATS

(Click) 
TABLE 1
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TABLE 2
 

15 comments:

Nilay Wankawala said...

Great work Rohit. Monsoon in Mumbai city has entered defecient region. SWM 2017 for mumbai is missing Rajesh sir's script this time.

sset said...

Thanks Rohitji for region-wise toppers. We see many new places in toppers list overtaking classic places. Hope this does not happen next year - for instance we see Mt.Abu same as Augumbe, Augumbe no longer in top slots - same goes with Kerala.
Hope Rajesh Sir is in good phase - probably doing deep research - leaving weather domains to new scientists like you and vagaries core group.

abizer Kachwala said...

Hope Rajesh sir will make a comeback soon.... And predict the 2nd part of swm-2017

Nilay Wankawala said...

Mumbai city put under defecient category recording 21% defecit from 01.06.2017 to 06.08.2017.

Kolhapur Sangli Dhule Jalgaon Aurangabad Jalna Parbhani Hingoli Latur Nanded Akola Amravati Yavatmal Nagpur Bhandara Gondiya Chandrapur all with Red Dots categorised in defecient category having defecit > 20% till 06.08.2017. Parbhani being Highest amongst listed -45%.

Above listing for Maharashtra state Only

Source Hydromet Division IMD-

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Heavy rain in Faridabad of NCR.But
AS of now no raining in Delhi

Nilay Wankawala said...

Defecit= Deficit- regret the spell error

Nilay Wankawala said...

SOURCED FROM IMD WEBSITE

PRESS RELEASE
New Delhi, 08th August, 2017
Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)
Earth System Science Organization (ESSO)
India Meteorological Department

Long Range Forecast for the Rainfall during Second Half (August –
September) of the 2017 Southwest Monsoon and Updates for the
Seasonal Forecasts

Highlights:

 Quantitatively, the rainfall over the country as a whole during the second half of
the season is likely to be 100% of LPA with a model error of ±8%.

 The rainfall during August is likely to be 99 ± 9% of LPA as was forecasted in June.

 The seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be
normal (96% to 104% of LPA) as was forecasted in June.

1. Background and details of the 5- Parameter Operational Model

The forecast for the rainfall over the country as a whole for the second half of the 2017
monsoon season has been prepared using a Principal Component Regression (PCR) Model and
Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS). The PCR model is based on 5 predictors
with a model error of ±8% of long period average (LPA). The LPA of the rainfall over the country as a whole for the second half of the monsoon season (August to September) based on the 1951-2000 period is 43.5cm (49% of the average season rainfall) with a coefficient of variation (C.V) of 15%.

2. SST conditions in the Pacific and the Indian Oceans

Since mid-March, warm ENSO neutral conditions are prevailing with SSTs over east-central
tropical Pacific close to El Niño threshold in recent weeks. However, the atmospheric conditions over the Pacific continue to reflect neutral ENSO conditions. Latest forecast from MMCFS indicates neutral ENSO conditions are most likely till 2018 spring season with high probability (80-90%) till end of 2017. Most of the other global models also suggest neutral ENSO conditions during the remaining part of 2017. Over Indian Ocean, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing. The MMCFS forecast indicates nearly equal probabilities for neutral and negative IOD conditions to continue during the remaining part of the monsoon season.

3. Forecast for the Rainfall during the Second Half of the 2017 Southwest Monsoon
Rainfall and Updates for the Seasonal Forecasts

(a) The rainfall over the country as a whole during second half of southwest monsoon season
(August to September) is most likely to be normal (94%-106% of LPA).

(b) Quantitatively, the rainfall for the country as a whole during the second half of the season is likely
to be 100% of LPA with a model error of ±8%.

(c) The rainfall during August is likely to be 99 ± 9% of LPA.

(d) The seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be normal (96%- 104% of LPA) as predicted in June.

Shivkumar Mogal said...

East Vidarbha rainfall Yesterday and Today.

Rainfall on 8 Aug (Above 100 mm)

Malewada (Nagpur) 180 mm
Bhiwapur (Nagpur) 177 mm
Kondha (Bhandara) 168 mm
Aasgaon (Bhandara) 163 mm
Kargaon (Nagpur) 148 mm
Pachkhedli (Nagpur) 131 mm
Shankarpur (Chandrapur) 116 mm
Pavani (Bhandara) 112 mm
Masal (Bhandara) 109 mm
Nimkheda (Nagpur) 101 mm
Mauda (Nagpur) 101 mm

Rainfall on 9 Aug (Above 150 mm)

Bedgaon (Gadchiroli) 211 mm
Palandur (Bhandara) 211 mm
Masal (Bhandara) 195 mm
Barwha (Bhandara) 195 mm
Pachkhedli (Nagpur) 178 mm
Adyal (Bhandara) 167 mm
Mandhal (Nagpur) 160 mm
Korchi (Gadchiroli) 160 mm
Kondha (Bhandara) 159 mm
Arjuni Morgaon (Gondia) 157 mm
Kotgul (Gadchiroli) 152 mm

Nilay Wankawala said...

Shivkumar mogal quick update on rainfall figures

sset said...

Many companies have started flood relief fund for GUJ and RAJ.
Same needs to be started for south India - drought relief fund!
KEA blog says weak NEM - another disaster for south India...

Deepak Kotian said...

Rajesh Sir weekend forecaste for Mumbai

Deepak Kotian said...

Rohit Sir any updates for weekend forecaste for m mbai

sset said...

Good news Bangalore crosses 100mm since june! With great difficulty- sept supposed to be rainiest month hope it rains before monsoon ends.

Abhijit said...

Tamilnadu was -21% deficit on 31 July to +10% above normal on 10th Aug.. So 31% gain in 10 days of break SWM !!

And SI Kar not benefiting from break SWM TS also as -33% deficit as till today.. Now whom @ sset would blame ? whether TN as SI Kar share is grabbed by TN as per his theory by saying Guj/Raj lows making SI Kar deficit ! So in break SWM TN gaining but SI Kar not so now who is stopping SI Kar.

Shivkumar Mogal said...

Cherrapunji recorded 295.6 mm rainfall today and crossed 5000 mm seasonal rainfall mark.

Seasonal rainfall: 5208 mm (Till today)
Annual rainfall: 8740 mm (Till today)