Wednesday, May 10, 2017

Mumbai will get thunder heads developing in the Eastern skies on Friday 12th and Saturday 13th. Light rains likely in Eastern Outer Townships and Panvel region.
Pune likely to get thunder and rain in some parts of city on Friday12th and Saturday 13th. Thunder showers will occur in Mahableshwar on these days.

Muscat will get some showers on Friday and Saturday with very squaly winds.

Bikaner (India) saw a Low of 32.3c on Wednesday.

31 comments:

rajesh said...

Nilay: We should bear in mind that El Nino or La Nina is one of the parameters in gauging the rain quantum...it is not the ONLY parameter. There are 6/7 others.How will one parameter change the forecast ?

Cumulus Arjun said...

Rajesh sir, can you predict that this year's South West Monsoon will be normal or below normal in India (especially west coast) this year?

Vijith Menon said...

Rajesh Sir
What is your view point on IMD saying above normal rainfall
We need your view point as it's always right

Neeraj said...

its been consistently cool at my place this year - 10th may was 15C minimum and 24 C maximum ; may has been cloudy and rainy ; april had its fare share of rains too ; and the temperature is on the lower side. Maximum temp has touched 30C just once till now, and minimums have hovered around 14 , and has ocassionally dipped to 10-11 C.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Noted sir.

sset said...

Skymet says below normal, IMD says normal wait for Vagaries verdict.

Hrishikesh said...

Too hot nights stuffy and humid at 30C in Mumbai western suburbs

Hrishikesh said...

Will Mumbai get thunder and lightning if not rain ?

rajesh said...

Hrishikesh: Lightning in eastern horizon

sset: vagaries quantum analysis soon

Hrishikesh said...

Wow just love thunderstorms hope to see lightning today hopefully it will shift to west and drift towards Mumbai 😂 Just hopes

Hrishikesh said...

Cloud ☁️ development seen in east pressure at 1004mb expect a thunderstorm soon!

Hrishikesh said...

Lightning seen in east 7:30pm

Hrishikesh said...

It's raining in Mumbai

Nilay Wankawala said...

Ghatkopar and juhu it's raining. Reports are yet to be confirmed though.

Abhijit said...

As per Vagaries forecast, Badlapur eastern township gets first TS rain of 2017 around 6.30pm today. Was very amazed to experience first TS of 2017 :) Light to moderate rain lasted for 10 mins but lightning strike and ear crackling thunder show lasted for hour.

Badlapur recorded 2.5 mm rain in the spell.

Mumbai SCZ recorded 1 mm rain till 8.30pm.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Nice quick update abhijit with figures.

rajesh said...

Shiraz from Mahabaleshwar: massive thunder storm with hail/rain from 7.30pm to 9.30 pm
Abhijit informs of 36 mms of rain in MShwar till 10 pm.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Sir everything happened as u forecasted. Great sir.

Karan Kumbhar said...


Amazing light and sound show in Pune since 1930 hours.
Light to moderate rains occurred !!

rajesh said...

Hirdoshi in Pune District recorded 29 mms till 10 pm and Shirgaon 28 mms

sset said...

As forecast ed by vageries good spells of rains over Navi Mumbai

rohit aroskar said...

As forecasted by vagaries ,TS rains over Mumbai and surrounding regions..Scz 3 mms

Abizer Kachwala said...

Rajesh sir,Nagothane near roha ,my place,experienced a great thunderstorm....it almost rained for 2hrs heavily.....great forecast by you👍👍

Nilay Wankawala said...

Raining at borivali thunders heared too

Cumulus Arjun said...

Great forecast by Rajesh sir! Keep it up!

Unknown said...

Rajesh, this is a brilliant start to your monsoon forecasting season. In cricketing terms, you have hit a six off the first ball !! Great show !

Suresh

Tejaswininimburia said...

It is futile to club all meteorological divisions in India for SWMONSOON. The Major divisions are Southern Kerala Northern Kerala and SI KARNATAKA NI KARNATAKA and Telengana Goa and Konjam Mumbai Western India Central India Southern Andhra and Northern Tamilnadu Of isha Chattisgarh Jarkhand and Bihar Bengal Foot hills of Himalayas plains of North India Jammu Kashmir HP UTTARKHAND. The distribution of rainfall is not uniform. There are areas where the surplussed of reservoirs is a must and there are areas where tanks are fed by rain. During 2016 there was unprecedented continous rainfall starting from third week of July to first week of October in Central India and Mumbai and normal rainfall in plains of Northern India. But Kerala Malnad South Interior Karnataka Rayalaseema and Tamilnadu were the worst affected. In 2015 Rayalaseema Southern AP Northern Tamilnadu experienced the heaviest winter rainfall. In 2013 there was cloudbursts in Himalayas continous rain for three months from the first week of July to First week of October in 2013 in Northern Kerala SI Karnataka. Hence El Nino had no effect for Central India and Northern Plain for 2016 no effect in 2015 for Rayalaseema NI Karnataka Southern AP and Northern Tamil Nadu. Instead of giving details in general models should be evolved for specific regions like those covered under western disturbance like Punjab Haryana Jammu and Kashmir western plains of North India those having winter rainfall those having rainfall due to depressions formed in Central Bay. Last year there were continous depressions in Central giving copious rainfall to Central India Mumbai and MP. If El Nino or La Nina influences SWM then there cannot be sparse rainfall in West Coast but series of depressions in Central Bay. Even wrt Malnad SI Karna and Northern Kerala it varies . In one year there is heavy rainfall in Malnad but less in DI Karnataka. Rainfall normally reduces intensity by middle of August in North Kerala while in 2012 and 2016 NI Karnataka received copious rainfall in September. South West Monsoon should no longer be projected on Pan India but models should be evolved for localising it


sset said...

Extreme heat wave forecasted for AP-Telangana (48-49c). Is it true? This will be record breaking for this year 2017. On one side monsoon is said to arrive on other side heat wave. AP faces maximum loss of lives due to heat wave in last 10 years.
Tejas- your statements holds true. Localized models are required-> 2016 when entire southern faced worst drought since last 50years on other side northern India received best of monsoons.

Karan Kumbhar said...

IMD as well as skymet declared onset of monsoon over nicobar islands and south Andaman sea.
Waiting for official declaration by vagaries !!

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Why so many WDs in May sir? Will they continue?

rajesh said...

Anoop: W.D.s are expected in May as Upper Level troughs. Would expect at least 2/3 more W,D, troughs in mid level in remaining May.

Tejaswini: yes. Spatial distribution of rainfall is very important and more practical.