Saturday, May 20, 2017

Posted Tuesday 23rd Night:
A UAC has formed in the South East Bay...
Places above 44c on Tuesday (India):
1Titlagarh 46.5 °C
2Chandrapur 45.2 °C
3Bhawanipatna 45.0 °C
4Nalgonda 45.0 °C
5Ramgundam 45.0 °C
6Bilaspur 44.9 °C
7Bramhapuri 44.9 °C
8Wardha 44.8 °C
9Nagpur Sonegaon 44.7 °C
10Vijayawada / Gannavaram 44.7 °C
11Nizamabad 44.5 °C
12Daltonganj 44.4 °C
13Rentachintala 44.4 °C
14Mahabubnagar 44.2 °C
15Adilabad 44.1 °C
16Angul 44.1 °C
17Kurnool 44.1 °C
18Pbo Raipur 44.1 °C
19Rajnandgaon 44.0 °C

Posted Saturday 20th May Night:

A Low pressure (BB-2) is likely to form in the South East Bay of Bengal ( 10N, 90E) by the 23rd of May. As per the ensuing sea and pressure conditions, BB-2 is likely to strengthen in the next few days. Chances of cyclone development is 25% ( Low). But system as a strengthened force will track NW towards Odisha/North Andhra.

In the meantime, the off shore trough off the Southern region of West Coast of India will get more prominent from the 24th on wards, thereby increasing coastal rains in Kerala and Coastal Karnataka.

15 comments:

Vijith Menon said...

Rajesh sir- will this low bring the SW monsoon eastern branch close to Indian Coast and strengthen the south West winds from Arabian Sea?

rajesh said...

Vijith: Depends on the final strength of this Low...However if going as expected today, BB-2 will strengthen the off shore trough along southern west coast and bring rains there.

Vijith Menon said...

Thanks Sir for quick update
2017 monsoon is extremely crucial and as usual we look fwd to ur updates

Abizer Kachwala said...

Rajesh sir,Do you expect monsoon to hit Mumbai early this year or as per your previous forecast of 12\14th June??when will pre monsoon showers begin in Roha,Nagothane(north konkan)?

rajesh said...

Abizer: Yes, no change in dates for Mumbai as yet...seems the dates will be maintained...and pre monsoon showers in North Konkan around 3rd/4th as mentioned.
If any changes, i will inform in vagaries.

rajesh said...

Seems the BB-2 is also as per what is mentioned above. And West coast off shore trough may become a bit active in Kerala and Coastal Karnataka from 25th as mentioned.

rajesh said...

In Moscow the average temperature over the last 17 days is 8.5 ° C.On some days in May, negative temperature anomalies reached 9-10ºC below average. In recent days the average temperature “behind” the standard of 6.1ºC.
This makes it the coldest May in Moscow since 1918.Records in Moscow have been kept since 1879.
Thanks to Martin Siebert for this link article.

Vinod Desai said...

Sir, Temperatures in rajasthan below normal both maximum and minimum.

rajesh said...

Vinod: yes, due to recent and current thunder showers...UAC over the region

Nilay Wankawala said...

Does this mean snow cover increasing? Global warming Effect?

Nilay Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government Bureau of meteorology

Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 23 May 2017

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

Tropical Pacific remains warmer than average

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. With the tropical Pacific Ocean warmer than average, and around half the international climate models reaching El Niño levels later in the year, development of El Niño in 2017 cannot be ruled out. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is around a 50% chance—double the normal likelihood—of El Niño developing in 2017.

Sea surface temperatures across the central tropical Pacific remained half a degree warmer than average over the past month. This is below the El Niño threshold of +0.8 °C. Further warming in the coming fortnight is unlikely, with trade winds forecast to be stronger than average. All other ENSO indicators are also neutral.

Five of eight international climate models suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to warm above El Niño thresholds during the second half of 2017. However virtually all models now suggest less warming is likely compared to their previous outlooks, indicating any event may be weak. Models have lower accuracy forecasting El Niño during the autumn months, though accuracy begins to improve from June.

El Niño is often, but not always, associated with a drier than average winter-spring over eastern Australia. Even if El Niño thresholds are not met, Australia may still see some El Niño-like effects if waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain warm.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. Four out of six climate models suggest a positive IOD is likely to develop during winter. A positive IOD is typically associated with a drier than average winter-spring for southern and central Australia.

Next update expected on 6 June 2017

Vijayanand said...

Massive rains in bangalore on Saturday and Monday. Yesterday we had squall passing through the city giving good rains. City IMD at 150 mm for the year. A lot of other places at 170 to 180mm for the year. Last 10 days are excellent for bangalore.

Vinod Desai said...

Sir,
Is the anticyclone over arabian sea still there.

rajesh said...

Vinod: yes anticyclone is prevailing...but will weaken off in 2/3 days

rajesh said...

Thiruthani tops the table 42.5°C 2nd #Vellore 41.2°C. #Chennai city back to 40 after 2 days .40.1°C, Airport 41°C....from Guru