Monsoon Arrival Estimate.
The arrival date is calculated seeing today's position.Further from today, we presume the normal rate of progress/developments. This initial estimated dates are subject to some changes, and will be finalised around mid-May, when the puzzle pieces get better arranged.
(Dates in brackets are the normal dates of arrival).
As of today, there seems to be a slight delay in both, Arabian Sea and Bay Branches of the Monsoon. There continues to be a doubt on the timely arrival of the Monsoon in the Bay branch.
Arabian Sea Branch: The LWD parameter is strong, and developed well. Otherwise, There is not much improvement in some of the parameters, there is still much to be achieved, and most parameters are still lagging behind time, and are -ve.
The Arabian Sea branch, now affected by the "getting organised" Somali current winds and the equatorial winds at the equator. They can recover provided the winds regroup fast.
On these calculations, Vagaries would estimate the Monsoon to reach Maldives around the 22nd of May 2017 (20th May), Sri Lanka around 27th/28th of May (25th May).
Kerala by the 2nd/4th June (1st June).
Hence, maintaining and presuming the normal rate of progress, As the Seasonal Low strengthens, Monsoon could "slide " up the coast to be in Goa should get Monsoon rains by around 8th/10th June (5th June). NE States can also see Monsoon resume around that date.
Mumbai by 12th/14th June (9th June). Pre Monsoon thunder showers could start from around 3rd/4th June 2017.
Bay Branch: A weak Western Disturbance was active the Northern regions of the sub continent.
Bay branch needs to wait a few days for the the pulses from the East in the Bay to resume for Low formations.
SWM should hit South Andaman Sea around 17th.May (12/15th May), and rest Andaman Islands by 20th May 2017.
Generally moves up (normally) the Bay at a sustained speed, and Kolkata should see Monsoon arrival by the 11th/12th of June.
We stop at this initial progress, and work out further region wise progress at a later date (as is the usual practise in Vagaries' MWs).
These Dates are worked out and estimated as per my personal calculations and may not be used for commercial purposes.The dates are not binding on anyone and no responsibility is taken if used for any purposes.
A reader had asked me how Vagaries' Estimate compared with the actual Dates...well, here are some yearly comparisons from MW-3 of that year (Estimated in Early May of that year).
Estimated: 4th/5th June v/s Actual : 8th June
Goa (Southern Touch): Estimated: 10th June v/s Actual: 10th June
Mumbai: Estimated: 14th June Actual: 20th June.
Kerala: Estimated 3rd/4th June v/s Actual 5th June
Goa: Estimated 10th June v/s Actual 8th June
Mumbai: Estimated 13th/14th June v/s Actual 12th June
Kerala: Estimated 31st May v/s 6th June Actual
Goa: Estimated 5th June v/s 11th June Actual
Mumbai: Estimated 9th June v/s 15th June Actual
Kerala: Estimated 3rd June v/s Actual 1st June
Goa: Estimated 8th June v/s Actual 3rd June
Mumbai: Estimated 12th June v/s Actual 8th June.