Friday, December 16, 2016

Posted Friday Night:

A low pressure formed from the "Vardah" pulse will deepen to a Well Marked Low. Likely to move West.
Weekend: No major systems expected.
Northern and NW India will remain dry and foggy in the morning. A WD would affect Kashmir and H.P. on Monday. 
Delhi NCR will see patchy fog in the pre noon hours, with the nights remaining around 8c.

Night temperatures dropping by 3/4c in Western Maharshtra. Pune likely to drop to 10/12c alongwith Nasik.
Mumbai:Night temperatures in Mumbai likely to fall by 2/3c this weekend.Day at Colaba was hot on Friday at 35.8c. Likely to be around 34/35c this weekend also.

Bangalore: Weekend will be foggy in the morning and partly cloudy later. Nights will drop to 15/16c.
Kolkata:Night temperatures around 13/14c.

18 comments:

Ishan Vajpeyi said...

Isn't any cold wave expected in NW India post the effects of an active WD in the hills(and plains as well),with the latter being possible at all in the first place?

Vinod Desai said...

No winter here in Gujarat yet.

Neeraj said...

warmer than usual december so far for my place (minimums are around 4-5 C warmer and maximums are around 3-4 c warmer). any particular reason for this ?

ANOOP RAWAT said...

As per IMD-minimum temp very likely to be normal to above normal in most parts of northwest india during next 2 weeks

Nilay Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government Bureau of meteorology

Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 20 December 2016

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up, ENSO Outlook and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.
 
El Niño–Southern Oscillation likely to remain neutral through summer
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean remains neutral. Most climate models indicate neutral conditions are likely to persist through the coming months, though one model suggests La Niña thresholds may briefly be exceeded. When ENSO is neutral, weather patterns over the Pacific region are near normal, so there is less of a tendency for Australia’s climate to be very much wetter or drier than normal.

Although the central tropical Pacific Ocean has cooled slightly in the past fortnight, ocean temperatures remain well within the neutral range. Most models indicate the central Pacific Ocean will slowly warm in the coming months. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains at neutral values and trade winds are at normal strength for this time of year. Only cloudiness near the Date Line continues to show some La Niña-like characteristics.

The Indian Ocean Dipole has little influence on Australian climate during the months of December to April.

ENSO Outlook
Our ENSO Outlook provides
up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing.

ENSO outlook dial showing status as inactive.

Next update friends is expected in new year. 03 01 2017.

 

umer amin said...

Sir,

Why are not WD's hitting our region this winter thus far?It is getting abnormally dry here particularly in december and january.

sset said...

Very weak NEM seems to have come to an end. Entire South India faces massive drought (deficits are huge). 2017 Summer is fast approaching - places like Anatapur,Rayalseema temperatures reach 40s by start of feb itself. Just wondering how will be 2017 pre-monsoons for south India? Will it be same as 2016 (failure) or need to wait for EL-NINO conditions?

Other side bumper excess SWM for Maharashtra -> fruits are appearing much before - mangoes have already arrived. Trees are full of mango blossoms. Maharashtra government is all set for 15 crore tree plantations for 2017 year!

Cumulus Arjun said...

Lol sset mangoes haven't arrived yet Atleast in Mumbai.

Cumulus Arjun said...

trees are in blossom in Mumbai. Happy to see that!

Vinod Desai said...

Seems today is coldest morning of this winter in Mumbai.
Sir,
This year Maharashtra is more cold than north india.min temp have been below normal consistently. What could be the reason.

sanjeev Gokhale said...

nights are cold but not so in day in mumbai

when we get cold in daytime sir??

ANOOP RAWAT said...

During peak winter people missing chill in north india.Unfortunately second consecutive warm winter.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Credit : NDTV through press trust of india.

London: In what may be a record-breaking heatwave, temperatures at the North Pole may rise up to 20 degrees higher than average this Christmas Eve, scientists have warned.

These unseasonably warm weather patterns in the Arctic region are directly linked to man-made climate change, they said.

Temperatures throughout November and December this year were five degree Celsius higher than average. It follows a summer during which Arctic sea ice reached the second-lowest extent ever recorded by satellites.

"In pre-industrial times, a heatwave like this would have been extremely rare - we would expect it to occur about every 1,000 years," said Friederike Otto, a senior researcher at Oxford University told 'BBC News'.

Temperatures will peak on Christmas Eve around the North Pole - at near-freezing. The warm air from the North Atlantic is likely flow all the way to the North Pole via Spitsbergen, giving rise to clouds that prevent heat from escaping.

Forecasting models show that there is about a 2 per cent chance of a heatwave event occurring every year. "But if temperatures continue to increase further as they are now, we would expect a heatwave like this to occur every year and that will be a huge stress on the ecosystem," said Otto.

The freeze and thaw conditions are already making it difficult for reindeer to find food - as the moss they feed on is covered by hard ice, rather than soft, penetrable snow.

Cumulus Arjun said...

Quite chilly and foggy/smoky here now.

sset said...


http://in.reuters.com/article/australian-weather-idINKBN14G096

Australia desert torrential rains - 300mm! Uluru mountain waterfalls. - actually it is summer now!

Hope SE India gets some rains - drought looming!

Karan Kumbhar said...

Sir
Eagerly awaiting your next report/forecast for January especially regarding cold waves /western disturbances.

Hrishikesh said...

When will the next post be!????????

sset said...

Bangalore water crisis....

http://bangaloremirror.indiatimes.com/bangalore/others/water-table-in-bengaluru-its-going-deeper-underground/articleshow/56191333.cms

Milk production in KAR - droughts no fodder for cattles... very bad situation.