Thursday, December 01, 2016

Chennai got 39.5 mms and Chennai AP measured 35 mms in 24 hrs as on Friday morning.Vagaries estimate was around 50 mms.
Some Thursday Day temps and Friday morning Lows: Adirampatanma saw a high of 21.5c, and a Low of 18.9c.
Karaikal saw a high of 22.6c and a low of 22c.
Kodaikanal saw a high of 13.4c and low was 10.7c.
Many towns in TN saw a cool day at around 23c, with the range between day and night of around 2c.

Posted Thursday Night ...

True to its expectations, BB-17 is crossing into Tamil Nadu on Thursday night as a Depression.
Vagaries has never mentioned a Cyclone from the start of its tracking BB-17 8 days ago. And also clarified yesterday that IMD and International Models are mentioning a Cyclone. 

Chennai received 30 mms on Thursday in 12 hrs ended 5.30 pm. 50 mms were estimated here in 24 hrs.

BB-17 is a Low level Circulation ( Depression) crossing the TN coast tonite. The estimated winds around the circulation is 30 knts. Vertical shear is not favourable for the circulation.
It is not showing any associated deep convection.

Let us start the chase for BB-18 ...Likely to form around the same location as BB-17. 
BB-18 could be more effective for TN...


Narayanan chennai said...

Thanks Rajesh sir for your explanation on bb 17 event unfolded. We will track bb 18 track along with you.

sset said...

weakest system ever seen only 30mm... should have been atleast 300mm

Cumulus arjun said...

Sir, there is also formation of another system? What's your view on that?

Rohit Aroskar said...

Cold Tamilnadu.. North Europe summer type temps during daytime yday.. 18 to 25 c ..Pamban min temp @ 19.5 c

Rajesh said...

Arjun: I maintain the track as explained in the 27th November post. Will keep the readers updated on this.

NilaY Wankawala said...


Time of issue: 1330 hours IST Dated: 02-12-2016

Sub: Cyclonic storm “Nada” weakened into a well marked low pressure area
over Interior Tamilnadu & neighbourhood

Yesterday’s cyclonic storm “Nada” over southwest Bay of Bengal (BoB)
moved west-northwestwards, weakened into a deep depression in the noon and
further into a depression in the midnight of same day, the 1st December 2016 over
southwest BOB. While moving west-northwestwards, it crossed north Tamilnadu
coast near Nagapattinam (about 20 km south of Karaikal) between 0400 to 0500
hours IST of today, the 2nd December. Thereafter, it weakened into a well marked
low pressure area and lay over Interior Tamilnadu & neighbourhood at 0830
hours IST of today, the 2nd December.

Heavy Rainfall Warning: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with isolated
heavy rainfall is very likely over interior Tamil Nadu during next 24 hours and
over Kerala during next 48 hours.

Narayanan chennai said...

After 4 pm very good rains lashing south chennai thanks to Nada effect

Vijayanand said...

Very windy and wet day in bangalore. Awesome climate.

Vijayanand said...

Very curious about the next system. GFS is stating central AP landfall and CMC South AP near chennai. Full confusion.
The system seems to be a powerful one.

Outlook for next week till Thursday 29th February: Temperatures expected to rise across Maharashtra and Gujarat. Chance of thunderstorms for...