# BB-18 showing rapid movement and development. Convective bands have appeared to the North and East of a well formed Low level circulation. Thus developed into a Depression. Cloud banding steadily becoming prominent. Centre of circulation approximately at 9.2N and 91.5E.
System will track NW. As per indications today, will track towards North A.P.( Vizag) Coast and may cross the coastline by around 10th evening. Cyclone strength possible.
Seems it will by-pass Chennai ?
Rainfall in Andaman Islands till now from BB-18 as compiled by Pradeep John.
Dense fog likely in Parts of NCR, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar next 3 mornings.
Posted 5th December Monday:
# BB-18, a Well Marked Low, is currently at 5N and 98E. The system tracks W/NW initially, and soon has a potential to develop in favourable conditions.Currently it has an elongated low level circulation, which will concise as it strengthens.
Seems as of now, will track NW till it reached 87E-90E region.
The strength and exact location of the WD coming in the North regions on the 10th will depend where and how the WD and its associated upper height tilt is located.
As of now, judging the BB-18 and upper level trough in the North West regions of the sub continent, the effect of WD may be possible in Kashmir and H.P. only and in extreme North Pakistan.
BB-17 has moved into the East Central Arabian Sea area.
Posted 3rd December Saturday:
# BB-18 is still to form. Slow on the schedule mentioned yesterday, There is an UAC over the expected region (of BB-18 formation). UAC will descend to form a Low on 4th around the location 7N and 92E.
Observing the parameters, and the steering Sub Tropical Ridge, we (today) see the track, as the system on formation, heading towards the A.P. coast. The conditions favour the formation of a Cyclone on approaching the East Coast of India.
BB-17 has emerged in the Arabian Sea. A Low is seen over the Lakshdweep region.An associated UAC also prevails.
Posted Friday Night (2nd December):
# BB-18 (Low) likely to form on 3rd around location 7N and 92E. Initial study of parameters show track as NW towards A.P. coast. Again, synoptic conditions indicate further strengthening and high possibility of Cyclone formation on reaching coast. At present it seems BB-18 will cross coast after about 5 days.
Follow BB-18 on Vagaries...Rare occasion when Vagaries has announced the possibility of Cyclone formation before system is formed.
Next update: Saturday Night (3rd) at 11 pm IST.
BB-17 is now stationed in interior T.N. as a Low. Upper air trough associated with it is tilting towards South West.