Friday, December 02, 2016

Posted 6th December Night:

# BB-18 showing rapid movement and development. Convective bands have appeared to the North and East of a well formed Low level circulation. Thus developed into a Depression. Cloud banding steadily becoming prominent. Centre of circulation approximately at 9.2N and 91.5E. 
System will track NW. As per indications today, will track towards North A.P.( Vizag) Coast and may cross the coastline by around 10th evening. Cyclone strength possible. 
Seems it will by-pass Chennai ?

Rainfall in Andaman Islands till now from BB-18 as compiled by Pradeep John.



Dense fog likely in Parts of NCR, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar next 3 mornings.


Posted 5th December Monday:

# BB-18, a Well Marked Low, is currently at 5N and 98E. The system tracks W/NW initially, and soon has a potential to develop in favourable conditions.Currently it has an elongated low level circulation, which will concise as it strengthens.
Seems as of now, will track NW till it reached 87E-90E region. 

The strength and exact location of the WD coming in the North regions on the 10th will depend where and how the WD and its associated upper height tilt is located.
As of now, judging the BB-18 and upper level trough in the North West regions of the sub continent, the effect of WD may be possible in Kashmir and H.P. only and in extreme North Pakistan. 


BB-17 has moved into the East Central Arabian Sea area.


Posted 3rd December Saturday:

# BB-18 is still to form. Slow on the schedule mentioned yesterday, There is an UAC over the expected region (of BB-18 formation). UAC will descend to form a Low on 4th around the location 7N and 92E. 
Observing the parameters, and the steering Sub Tropical Ridge, we (today) see the track, as the system on formation, heading towards the A.P. coast. The conditions favour the formation of a Cyclone on approaching the East Coast of India.


BB-17 has emerged in the Arabian Sea. A Low is seen over the Lakshdweep region.An associated UAC also prevails.

Posted Friday Night (2nd December):

# BB-18 (Low) likely to form on 3rd around location 7N and 92E. Initial study of parameters show track as NW towards A.P. coast. Again, synoptic conditions indicate further strengthening and high possibility of Cyclone formation on reaching coast. At present it seems BB-18 will cross coast after about 5 days.
Follow BB-18 on Vagaries...Rare occasion when Vagaries has announced the possibility of Cyclone formation before system is formed.
Next update: Saturday Night (3rd) at 11 pm IST.

BB-17 is now stationed in interior T.N. as a Low. Upper air trough associated with it is tilting towards South West.

18 comments:

Nilay Wankawala said...

BB 17 Vagaries never mentioned it as a cyclone and now BB 18 when likely to form on 03.12.2016 and announcing the possibility of forming cyclone at this stage makes it very interesting - eagerly awaiting how events unfolds and updates from vagaries

sset said...

wind shears tears down cyclone (for people it brings tears to eyes! -lost precious water)
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-glossary/how-wind-shear-plays-into-the/14524883

Next low not good for SE India - as per GFS it moves to NE India?

sset said...

Mysuru district has recorded its lowest rainfall in 60 years. “Mysuru received 213 mm against the average of 685 mm in 2016.
Imagine 200mm annual rain - failure of SWM and NEM.

Vijayanand said...

All models are now predicting the landfall in North AP - South Orissa. Guess this could be the final resting place.

sset said...

At this point of drought - south requires only strong 3 digit rains - no cyclones normal rains to fill reservoirs highly doubtful...

sset said...

It is december -> usually bay lows at this time move towards TN or SAP - but going towards
Orissa/NAP - change in climate? - not good.

Vinod Desai said...

Couple of days and temperatures have gone up.no winter feeling in mumbai.

rajesh said...

Vinod: The UAC in the Arabian Sea is over Lakshadweep region. This has pushed in moisture and partly clody weather along West Coast. Cloudy weather has pushed up min in Pune to 17.5c on Sunday morning from 10c. However, East winds continue over Mumbai next 2 days at least.

Low in SE Bay has become a Well Marked Low (BB-18).

Vinod Desai said...

Sir, we friends are visiting igatpuri on 10-11.how would be the weather there?

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Sir.how will be next WD in North.Will it revive the winter.

rajesh said...

Vinod: Till around the 10th, there will be almost East winds in North Maharahtra. After the WD, say from 11th/12th, the winds will be from North. These North winds will bring the temps down. Meaning, pleasant weather of say 30c and 15c till 10th and then cooling by around 3c.

rajesh said...

Anoop: Winds change to NW in NW and North plains after the 10th/11th of this month.We wait and see the WD coming around 10th.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Credit: Australian Government, Bureau of meteorology

Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 6 December 2016

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up, ENSO Outlook and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

La Niña no longer likely in the coming months

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean remains neutral—neither El Niño nor La Niña. Although some very weak La Niña-like patterns continue—such as cooler than normal ocean temperatures and reduced cloudiness in the central and eastern Pacific—La Niña thresholds have not been met. Climate models and current observations suggest these La Niña-like patterns will not persist. The likelihood of La Niña developing in the coming months is now low, and hence the Bureau’s ENSO Outlook has shifted from La Niña WATCH to INACTIVE.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also remains neutral—neither positive nor negative—as is typical at this time of year. When ENSO and the IOD are neutral they have limited impact on Australian climate.

The climate of Australia, and other countries around the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific Ocean basins, has been strongly influenced during the second half of 2016 by both a strong negative IOD in the tropical Indian Ocean (that ended in November) and the weak La Niña-like pattern in the tropical Pacific (which has eased). This combination of climate drivers contributed to Australia observing its wettest May to September on record in 2016.

ENSO Outlook

Our ENSO Outlook provides
up-to-date information on the likelihood
of an El Niño or La Niña developing.

ENSO outlook dial showing status as inactive.

The status is INACTIVE.

Next update expected on 20 December 2016

Vinod Desai said...

Today morning cooler as compared to last 3-4 days windy here in mumbai

Nilay Wankawala said...

Vagaries leading in tracking BB 18

IMD BULLETIN 07.12.2016 08.30 AM READ AS FOLLOWS

The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved further northwards with a speed of about
10 kmph during the past 6 hours and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 7
th December, 2016 over southeast Bay of Bengal near Latitude 9.8ºN and Longitude 90.5ºE, about 1180 km southsoutheast of Visakhapatnam, 1210 km south-southeast of Gopalpur, 260 km west-northwest of Car Nicobar and 310 km south-southwest of Port Blair. The system is very likely to move northwestwards during next 72 hrs. It is very likely to intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hrs and into a cyclonic storm in subsequent 24 hrs.

Cumulus Arjun said...

Cool weather once again started in Mumbai. Low 17 C. Marginal drop in day temperatures also

sset said...

series of tragedies for TN. Demise of great CM, horrible drought lurking around!. Please see below link from livemint.

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/HYhQUAVhaE6VqXBBZTF57J/Is-Tamil-Nadu-heading-towards-drought.html

Probably wait for 2017 NEM - what if this continues?

Cumulus Arjun said...

Very chilly yesterday night and today morning in Mumbai