Sunday, December 11, 2016

Posted Monday 12th Night:

"Vardah" crosses coast near Chennai on Monday Afternoon as a Severe Cyclonic storm wit winds at 100-110 kmph and very heavy rains in Chennai.
System will move West and wweaken into a Deep Depression by Tuesday morning, approaching Bangalore.
Heavy showers expected in Bangalore on Monday night and Tuesday. Day's high will be around 20c with about 40 mms on Tuesday.

Rains decreasing sharply in Chennai from Monday night.Meenambukam saw a high of 25.1c and measured 179 mms till 8.30 pm. Nungambakkam saw a high of 23.1c and 101 mms till 5.30 pm.

Sathyabama University measured 347 mms of rain and KVK Kattupakkam saw 314 mms.

Vardah moves Inland...Position as on Monday Night:


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 Posted Monday Noon:"Vardah", now about to cross the Land just North of Chennai...Centre of system is just about 50 kms East/North East of Chennai at 11.30 am. System is weakening, and the distinct "Eye" is getting covered with convective clouds. 

However, the Western segment  of the wall shows deep and heavy convection, resulting in very heavy downpours with gusty winds, gusts averaging around 65-70 kmph, in Chennai currently.
55 mms were recorded till 8.30 am..and another 60 mms till noon Monday.Current  temp 21.5c.



Posted 11th Sunday Night:

"Vardah" has moved Westwards since last reporting here. It now ( Sunday Night)lies at 13.1N and 82.5E, around 225 kms East of Chennai.
Current winds are estimated currently at 125-135 kmph. 

Latest Expectations: Likely to track Westwards along the edge of a deep layered Sub Tropical Ridge. Ridge is building westwards as mentioned yesterday.Will be crosing the North T.N./South A.P. coast 12th late morning.
At time of crossing, the system can weaken to a Cyclone status, with 80-90 kmph winds at core.
Very heavy rains expected in North Coastal T.N. and Southern A.P.

Chennai: Light rains have commenced in Chennai.
Very heavy Rainfall and winds in the 80-90 kmph range expected to lash the city from late Sunday night. Difficult to say, but we can estimate around 150-160 mms till Monday mid night.Very cool day.

Bangalore: Light rains on Monday evening. Tuesday: Overcast with showers. Day will be cold with the mercury not going over 20c.

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Posted 11th Sunday Evening 6 pm IST:

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm " Vardah" has moved West as aniticipated and is located 300 kms East of Chennai at 13.1N and 83.1E. 

Currently estimated pressure is 980 mb  and estimated core wind speeds are 125- 135 kmph. Winds are gusting to 150 kmph.

Latest Expectations:  Storm likely to weaken from Sunday evening, and tracking West, likely to cross North TN coast and adjoining South A.P. coast (close to Chennai) on 12th late morning.
On crossing, winds may reduce to 80-90 kmph. But, will remain a Cyclonic storm with potential danger of a cyclone.
System will track West, and reach Bangalore in about 24hrs (by 13th) as a depression/well marked Low.

Next brief progress report with expected rainfall in Chennai and Bangalore by Sunday 11 pm IST

26 comments:

Nilay Wankawala said...

Have been a great pleasure following your updates on this. Keep it up sir.

Kuldeep Singh said...

Sir how much rainfall is expected at chennai on mndy kndy give us ur views

Vijayanand said...

Some parts of chennai is reporting light drizzles.
All clear and calm in bangalore. No wind at all. Very quiet.

sset said...

Expectation is at-least 3 digit rains for drought hit entire TN, entire SAP (Rayalseema,Anantapur,Chittor,Cuddpah), entire south interior KAR. Even cyclone is welcome - even if it crosses over the head - water-water required - it is now or never for 2016. Will rains happen or only useless winds?

Rajesh Kumar said...

Calm before Storm , It seems

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Light to moderate snowfall in Kashmir.Sir,Will this finally bring strong wintry chill in northern plains or we have to wait further?

Cumulus Arjun said...

Looks like vardah will land at TN/AP border

Cumulus Arjun said...

Heavy showers in Chennai.

Cumulus Arjun said...

Kea weather bloggers criticising vagaries that they predicted wrongly. Lol

Vijayanand said...

Very heavy rain and wind reported from chennai for the last 3 hours.
In bangalore slowly getting cloudy. Bit windy as well.

Vijayanand said...

Nungambakkam recording 135 mm in the last 24 hours. Good rains.

Vijayanand said...

SSET good rain in chennai. Guess this is very bad news for you. Burnol effect...lol

Nilay Wankawala said...

VARDAH to make landfall at 01.00 PM

Vijayanand said...

130 KMPH winds recorded in minambakkam airport. Looks very bad in chennai.

Vijayanand said...

Chennai devastated. Vardah more powerful than expected. Its a CAT2 and not a depression as IMD predicted.

Nilay Wankawala said...

VARDAH made a landfall near south chennai arround 02.10 PM at speed of 110-120 kmph- source Indian express

Vijayanand said...

Rain started in bangalore at 4:00 pm. Initially just passing drizzle.

From 6.00 pm , continuous rain in bangalore. Its ranging between light drizzle to light rain.
Its quite windy as well.

Vijayanand said...

Heavy rain in bangalore for the last 30 minutes

Vijayanand said...

Best rain in bangalore after july. Heavy and non stop now.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Just type earth.nullschool.net
in the Web browser ..

and you will know the force of VARDHA.

Have a view of the whole world wind flow. Zoom in near chennai.

It's just amazing.

sset said...

Hope 3 digit rains continue for at least a week benefiting entire south India - poor farmers. ease cauvery tension between KAR/TN. drinking water. In recent past normal UACs. lows have given 400-500mm - bit disappointing cyclone has given some rains but not extremes.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Vardah in urdu means a rose. The name for cyclone was suggested by our neighbouring country pakistan.I wonder weather name and action of cyclone always go together :-)

Vijayanand said...

Continuous rain in bangalore from last evening. As always south bangalore seems to have got bit more.

BTM LAYOUT : 68 MM
GOTTIGERE : 77 MM
RAJAJINAGAR: 50 MM
YEHLANKA: 52 MM

So rain has ranged from 50 to 70 mm mostly. Feel system is exactly south of bangalore now. Winds have changed to North-North East now.

Shivkumar Mogal said...

CHIEF AMOUNT OF RAINFALL (IN CM) RECORDED ON:
13-12-2016
Satyabama uty arg (Kancheepuram Dist) - 38,
Kvk kattukuppam arg (Kancheepuram Dist) - 34,
Kancheepuram (Kancheepuram Dist) - 28,
Kalavai AWS (Vellore Dist) - 23,
Poonamallee (Tiruvallur Dist) - 22,
Chembarabakkam (Tiruvallur Dist) - 21,
Chennai AP (Kancheepuram Dist) - 20,
Sriperumbudur (Kancheepuram Dist) - 17,
Chembarambakkam arg (Tiruvallur Dist) - 16,
Yercaud (Salem Dist), Alangayam (Vellore Dist) - 15 each,
Tambaram (Kancheepuram Dist) - 14,
Chennai(N) (Chennai Dist), Thiruvalangadu (Tiruvallur Dist) - 12 each,
Anjatti (Krishnagiri Dist), Cholavaram (Tiruvallur Dist), Arakonam (Vellore Dist),
Vellore (Vellore Dist), Tiruvallur (Tiruvallur Dist), Red hills (Tiruvallur Dist),
Cheyyar (Tiruvannamalai Dist) - 11 each,
Ambur (Vellore Dist), Chengalpattu (Kancheepuram Dist), Poonamalle arg
(Tiruvallur Dist), Kaveripakkam (Vellore Dist), Tiruttani (Tiruvallur Dist), Arani
(Tiruvannamalai Dist), DGP office (Chennai Dist) - 10 each,
Anna University (Chennai Dist), Anna uty arg (Chennai Dist), Thamaraipakkam
(Tiruvallur Dist), Ponneri (Tiruvallur Dist), Melalathur (Vellore Dist), Poondi
(Tiruvallur Dist) 9 each, Mahabalipuram (Kancheepuram Dist) - 8,
Uthiramerur (Kancheepuram Dist), Tirupattur (Vellore Dist), Maduranthagam
(Kancheepuram Dist), Krishnagiri (Krishnagiri Dist), Shoolagiri (Krishnagiri Dist),
Hosur (Krishnagiri Dist), Vandavasi (Tiruvannamalai Dist), Marakkanam
(Villupuram Dist), Vaniaymbadi (Vellore Dist), R.k.pet (Tiruvallur Dist),
Gudiyatham (Vellore Dist), Cheyyur (Kancheepuram Dist) - 7 each,

Cumulus Arjun said...

Cool weather conitinues in Mumbai unhindered by Vardah so far. Hope this continues.

sset said...

Just wondering how fast cyclone covered south India in just 1 day!