i) After a very Poor November Start for the North East Monsoon, things seem to be looking bright soon.
After the formation of the much awaited trough, On 28th November, low pressure (BB-17) is forming at 5N and 90.5E in the South East Bay.....System will intensify, and track towards the Tamil Nadu coast. The intensified system may cross as a Deep Depression South of Chennai around 1st December.
Squally winds are likely along the T.N. coast from 30th November.
Studying the current possible scenario and BB-17 strength, the estimated rain amounts ( estimated as on 27th November) for Chennai would be around 55-60 mms on 1st, and then reducing to around 15-20 mms on 2nd December. But we will judge and monitor the developments daily.
BB-17 will weaken on crossing, and a weak Low will re-emerge in the Arabian Sea.
Another back to back Low, BB-18, is possibly forming in the same 5N and 90E region around the 3rd of December. Along a trough, the BB- 18 will track almost along the BB-17 track towards TN.
ii) Massive temperature variations were seen in some Maharashtra towns on 26th/27th November...
On 26th November Ahmednagar (Maharashtra) max temp 35.4°C and min temp 6.6°C. So, Temperature difference was 28.8°C.(Ahmednagar record and India range record is 29.2c on 15th December 2003.See here on the page for more variation ranges and Sub Continent record of 29.5c...
on 27th, Mumbai Scruz saw a difference of 19.6c, (high for a coastal city), when the day was 36.2c and night 16.6c.
Pune saw a range of 22.8c, with 32.1c as the high and 9.3c as the low.